The 185th meeting between the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears has serious divisional implications. The Bears are looking to break a four-game losing streak in the series, while the Packers will try to avoid a two-game deficit in the NFC North. The focus will be on the two high powered offenses but, ultimately, the game will depend on which defense can make the most plays and which team makes the fewest mistakes.
The Packers still have Aaron Rodgers, and the Bears still have Jay Cutler, but some new faces on each offense will look to make their mark. Brandon Marshall has proven his ability time and again throughout his career, but rookie Alshon Jeffery is just setting out to make his mark. The South Carolina product will be playing on the biggest stage of his career and has the opportunity to really make a name for himself. Randall Cobb accomplished this in his first game as a pro, returning a kick 108 yards for a touchdown. From there though, Cobb failed to catch on as a mainstay in the offense. That may change though, as playing exclusively in their four wide receiver, one tight end package, he proved to be their most effective receiver last week and pulled in every one of the nine throws he was targeted on for 77 yards.
The Bears-Packers rivalry has been around for over 80 years and has provided some of the best moments in football. This will only be the second meeting between the two on a Thursday night and it has all the makings of a classic. Here are the matchups you should be watching for.
Bears Passing vs. Packers Secondary
Even though the Packers were unable to get a pick in Week 1, history says that will likely change against the Bears. Jay Cutler has struggled over his career with interceptions, and no team has given him more trouble than the Packers. Cutler has thrown 12 picks in six games against them since coming to Chicago, and hasn't had gone a game without at least one. That was the old Bears offense though. The new look Bears' Week 1 gameplan was similar to that used by the 49ers last week. Cutler's average time to throw was 2.6 seconds, actually even faster than Alex Smith's release time against the Packers, and almost .2 seconds lower than last year's average. It will be interesting to see if the Bears can continue having success with this quick passing game.
The Packers' secondary played a very uninspired game against San Francisco. A unit known for their ball hawking, they were unable to even touch the ball, let alone pick off a pass. It will not get any easier for them. The 6'3″ Alshon Jeffery and 6'4″ Brandon Marshall provide a unique challenge for defensive backs. Their physical nature will make it hard for Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams to jump routes without interfering. I expect the Bears to target base corner Jarrett Bush. He is making only his second start, in his sixth year, and has been very inconsistent in his career to date–last week he gave up a Packer-high 63 yards on four receptions.
Bears Linebackers Covering the Middle of the Field
You would be hard pressed to find a more consistent coverage duo at linebacker than Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs. They have been patrolling the middle of the field in Chicago for what seems like forever. Their presence has coaxed Rodgers into throwing six interceptions (two by Urlacher) in his last five games against them. This is why it’s necessary they be at full strength. Even though Urlacher was healthy enough to play against the Colts, he still has to prove he can be the game-changing middle linebacker he was before his knee injury. In only one half of play last week, he gave up three catches for 42 yards and was a non-factor in the running game (-1.4). The Bears' defense will not be able to afford the same kind of performance this week.
Aaron Rodgers loves to work the middle of the defense. Last year over half of his passes under 20 yards were to the middle of the field, and in the Week 16 matchup against Chicago he torched that area, throwing for 215 yards and a +2.8 grade. This year, besides tight end Jermichael Finley and Greg Jennings out of the slot, the Bears' defense will have to worry about Cobb too; six of Cobb's nine catches were in the middle of the field. Urlacher and Briggs have to be on their A-game Thursday night, much like Navarro Bowman and Patrick Willis were last week, in order to stop the Packers' Offense.
Bears Run Blocking vs. Packers Defensive Line
If you want one matchup to watch, start with this. Whether the Bears can consistently win this matchup will dictate how they can attack. The Bears should like their chances. They finished Week 1 with our highest run blocking grade, and the Packers' defense finished with the lowest. The Packers failed to tackle a San Francisco running back for a loss all day. Nose tackle B.J. Raji has become a liability in the running game. It is telling of Green Bay's backups, though, that Raji still played almost 80% of the snaps. The Packers must get more rotation on their defensive line or they will continue to give up big yards, especially late in games.
The Bears' offensive line looked very much improved Week 1. Gabe Carimi (+3.6 run) showed the kind of run-blocking skills that made him the Outland Trophy winner his senior season at Wisconsin, and Lance Louis(+1.6) appears to be better suited for guard than tackle. They were able to move the Colts' line backward play after play and this will be the key on Thursday. If Chicago can get three or four yards on every handoff, they will hope to execute the same offense that put up 41 points on Sunday. This will be the definitive matchup of the game.
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