In our second look at the impact of the 2010 draft on current starters, we turn our eye towards the NFC South.
The events of this weekend will have an impact on free agents, contracted veterans and the rookies themselves as it alters the depth charts for each team. The NFC South is no different after a weekend that involved some huge trades, some big gambles and one acquisition of a true face of the franchise style quarterback.
So let’s look at where some of these rookies could fit in, and at who’s expense.
Atlanta Falcons
Round 1: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
The Falcons felt they needed to make their offense more explosive, and you can understand why with a set of receivers who failed to scare anyone downfield. The big loser likely to be Harry Douglas. After a strong rookie year, injury took his 2009 and impacted his 2010 (-8.7 rating in the pass game.) Now he may never live up to his potential as a Falcon as he’s relegated to the fourth receiver.
Round 3: Akeem Dent, LB, Georgia
With both Mike Peterson and Stephen Nicholas set to leave as free agents (depending on a new CBA,) it left the Falcons looking for someone to man the strongside. They could look to Spencer Adkins or Robert James, but the two have combined for just nine defensive snaps in their NFL careers. Dent is in the mix.
Round 5: Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Oregon State
It seems likely Jerious Norwood leaves as a free agent, with the Falcons tiring of his durability issues. Throw in that Jason Snelling is a potential free agent, and there’s some playing time to be had for Rodgers. If Snelling returns, Rodgers could potentially be used like LaRod Stephens-Howling has been in Arizona. If he doesn’t, Turner’s woes in the passing game (24 receptions in three years) could throw him into a third down back role from day one.
Round 6: Matt Bosher, K/P, Miami
Michael Koenen’s value took a hit with the introduction of new kick off rules (he was among the league’s best from the 30 with a +9.6 kick off rating, good enough for third in the league.) Factor in that he’s also overvalued as a result of that record setting 2008, and the Falcons are probably looking to save some money here.
Round 7: Andrew Jackson, OL, Fresno State
In the past two years, the Falcons have drafted offensive linemen and let them learn their craft while the veterans get the job done on the field. Jackson is likely to follow in this mode, even with three Falcons linemen possibly hitting free agency. If the Falcons resign all their free agent linemen, then you question if Jackson isn’t a practice squad candidate.
Round 7: Cliff Matthews, DE, South Carolina
Pass rush wasn’t as much of an issue for Atlanta as some would make out, and they currently have five defensive ends on the roster that they have varying degrees of investment in. Matthews will likely need to do what Lawrence Sidbury couldn’t: show up on special teams. If he does, it could put the Falcons in position to either cut one of the core four (all of whom had positive grades for 2010,) or give up on Sidbury.
Carolina Panthers
Round 1: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
As a rookie, Jimmy Clausen didn’t exactly do much to convince you he was the long term face of the franchise. So bad was he that only Derek Anderson and Kevin Kolb finished with lower ratings (watch out all you teams looking to grab Kolb.) So now he’s on borrowed time, because when you take a quarterback number one, you’re going to play him at some point. He’ll need to take dramatic steps forward in year two, otherwise the temptation for the Panthers to throw in Newton will be too hard to resist.
Round 3: Terrell McClain, DL, South Florida
The Panthers got next to no pressure with their defensive tackles in 2010. The 30 total pressures all their tackles combined for was 13 less than Buffalo’s Kyle Williams managed on his own. McClain figures to go straight into the rotation, and will do well to fair as poorly as the incumbents.
Round 3: Siona Fua, DL, Stanford
Fua is a bigger body, who may find some large bodies in the way of his own large body. Andre Neblett looked like a guy who could chow down on space (+5.1 run defense rating) while returners like Ed Johnson were competent in this regard. The Panthers need more penetration from their defensive interior.
Round 4: Brandon Hogan, CB, West Virginia
Richard Marshall could be about to get overpaid in free agency, and Chris Gamble could be cut. In the NFC South you need some cornerbacks to stop some pretty talented wide receivers, and Hogan could be pushed into action in multiple receiver sets sooner than you’d like.
Round 5: Kealoha Pilares, WR, Hawaii
Between them last year, the Panthers top three receivers dropped 19 passes and accumulated a -11.8 grade in the passing game. As bad as the quarterback play was, you have to look at the receivers as part of the problem. Throw in Steve Smith possibly leaving, and Brandon LaFell and David Gettis being picks of the old regime, and Pilares is in with a shot at playing time.
Round 6: Lawrence Wilson, LB, Connecticut
If Wilson is going to contribute early, it’s going to be on special teams. Carolina is loaded with talent at linebacker, with Dan Connor (+15.4 rating last year) and Jon Beason (+7.2) under contract, and James Anderson (+14.1) and Thomas Davis (+10.7 in 2009) two guys they’d like to bring back.
Round 6: Zachary Williams, C, Washington State
With Ryan Kalil franchised, Williams best chance of getting playing time is likely to be as a guard, and even then his chances aren’t that good. The Panthers are pretty well stocked on the offensive line, and Williams will do well to make the final 53.
Round 7: Lee Ziembla, OT, Auburn
A versatile player, Ziembla is likely to fight it out with fellow rookie Williams for a place on the roster. Only injuries will get him on the field with Jordan Gross, Travelle Wharton, Ryan Kalil, Jeff Otah and Geoff Schwartz likely starters, and plenty of depth after them.
New Orleans Saints
Round 1: Cameron Jordan, DE, Carolina
Alex Brown just didn’t bring with him the form he showed as a Bear, creating pressure on just 7.53% of pass rushing plays. With Jimmy Wilkerson a tweener and Jeff Charleston a free agent, Jordan has a pretty free run on the starting DLE spot. The Saints haven’t been big rotators so he’ll get a chance to log a lot of snaps as they desperately seek an upgrade on their d-line.
Round 1: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
We all know what Reggie Bush felt about the move, and despite the claims of Sean Payton it’s hard to see how you make ample use of four (possibly five) running backs. The Saints may try and keep him, but Bush must see his role diminishing and his value higher elsewhere. The combo of Chris Ivory (+9.1 rusher rating,) Pierre Thomas (our number five back in 2009) and Ingram should see them through with Lynell Hamilton providing the insurance in case of injury.
Round 3: Martez Wilson, LB, Illinois
Neither outside linebacker spot appears completely sound for the Saints, with Scott Shanle a constant weakness (53rd out of 54 in our OLB rankings this year) and no one having emerged on the other side of Jonathan Vilma. Wilson could find himself in the mix for playing time, but the competition for spots is deep enough that he may get nowhere near the field on defense.
Round 3: Johnny Patrick, CB, Louisville
It used to be said you could never have enough defensive ends, and now it look like you can throw a similar statement the way of cornerbacks. It’s hard to see Patrick as anything other than a long term prospect or special teamer, with Tracy Porter and Jabari Greer two talented starters, and last year’s first round pick Patrick Robinson fighting for more than the 264 snaps he got as a rookie.
Round 7: Greg Romeus, DE, Pittsburgh
Romeus figures to be a developmental prospect for the Saints, who haven’t been known to blood youngsters on the defensive line (especially late round picks) in the Payton era.
Round 7: Nate Bussey, LB, Illinois
It’s going to be tough for Bussey to even make the roster with the Saints so deep on linebackers foaming at the mouth for their opportunity. Cuts could push him up the depth chart but he’s so far behind that the practice squad is a far more realistic option.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Round 1: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
We liked Stylez G. White a lot more when he was used more sparingly. An increased role in 2010 saw his grade drop from a +15.5 in pass rushing to a still healthy +10.3. The moral is: he needs some help and shouldn’t shoulder the outside rush all on his own. Clayborn will be expected to come in from day one and ease that burden. There’s next to no talent outside of White on the defensive line.
Round 2: Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
Everyone knows about the knee, and the Bucs will be looking to manage that. But they’ll also be looking for Bowers to contribute immediately, because of the lack of pass rush they got from their defensive ends. Tim Crowder was serviceable in run defense but inconsistent at best rushing the passer while Kyle Moore could only muster up eight quarterback pressures all year.
Round 3: Mason Foster, LB, Washington
Two thirds of the Bucs linebackers played extremely well last year. One third was terrible. With Barrett Ruud being that one third (-13.3 on the year) and being a free agent, he could be allowed to go with some reshaping of the linebacker unit to follow. Adam Hayward (+4.1) warrants some playing time, but Foster could find himself in a competition.
Round 4: Luke Stocker, TE, Tennessee
Tampa uses a number of multiple tight end receiver sets, trying to get the talents of their players maximized. The problem is that while Kellen Winslow has the receiving element covered, the blocking was rarely great. Two picks spent on tight ends suggest they’re looking to stumble on something better than the -4.8 of John Gilmore or -2.0 of Ryan Purvis.
Round 5: Ahmad Black, SS, Florida
Tanard Jackson looks done for the foreseeable future, and Sean Jones didn’t look like anything more than a stop gap (-3.7 overall rating.) So Black isn’t too far removed from the starting line up, but with Jones still holding down one spot, and Cody Grimm (+1.2) flashing talent, he’ll look to make a name for himself on special teams initially.
Round 6: Allen Bradford, RB, USC
Likened to LeGarrett Blount, it’s hard to see Bradford offering anything more than insurance for Blount going down. If Tampa doesn’t resign Cadillac Williams, Bradford’s best bet of making the team may be impressing as a third down back. The Bucs don’t have much depth so there is an opportunity to do so.
Round 7: Anthony Gaitor, DB, Florida International
Who knows what becomes of Aqib Talib, but Gaitor needs to worry about himself because Raheem Morris isn’t scared of throwing rookie defensive backs out to play. As it stands, Ronde Barber has the inexperienced duo of Myron Lewis and E.J. Biggers for company at cornerback, neither of whom looked all that ready in 2010. Nevertheless, it’s hard to see anything but injury taking them from the field.
Round 7: Daniel Hardy, TE, Idaho
Hardy will do well to make the roster heading out of the draft as fifth on the Bucs tight end depth chart. That’s a lot of ground to make up, especially with Kellen Winslow likely to command a big role in the offense.
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