I recently heard the Pittsburgh Steelers described as a “paper tiger”, which – after having to look up the meaning (definition: seems as threatening as a tiger, but is really harmless, origin: Chinese colloquialism)– seems an appropriate description. They may be coming off their third straight victory (5-2 record), with their last game being a convincing 32-20 win over the Arizona Cardinals, yet their two losses have come against the only two teams they’ve played with a winning record. By beating the 5-1 New England Patriots this week, the Steelers could add some serious flesh to their image as it would represent their first big victory of the season, as well as only the second time that Steelers have beaten the Brady-led Patriots in their last eight meetings.
The Patriots are coming off of the bye week and should bewell- rested and prepared to play the Steelers. It’s a team that Tom Brady and the Patriots have matched up well against for the past decade. Brady has consistently treated the Steelers vaunted defenses like a test he already memorized the answers for. This meeting once again promises to be a battle between two menacing units – the Patriots offense ranks first and the Steelers defense ranks third in the NFL – but if the Steelers don’t opt to throw any curveballs on this test, Brady and the Patriots will likely be the last one laughing once again.
Here are three things to keep your eye on in this game:
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1) Mike Wallace vs. Devin McCourty
Mike Wallace (+9.8) runs by defenders at will. In each of the Steelers’ five games, Wallace has had a catch of 40 yards or longer, including a Steeler-record 95 yard touchdown reception in last week’s game. Wallace tops PFF’s signature Deep Passing stat, catching 63.6% of the passes targeted 20 yards or further down field. Even worse news for defenders is that Wallace ranks fourth in PFF’s drop rate category, only having dropped one of his 37 catchable targets. Needless to say, Wallace should be a handful for Devin McCourty, who is coming off his worst graded game in his career against the Cowboys (-3.9). McCourty has evidenced some regression this season after his impressive rookie campaign, but against the Cowboys the normally sure-tackling corner missed three tackles in addition to allowing five of six targets to be completed against him. Possibly the worst statistic of all is that McCourty – even after the bye week – is tied for last allowing 35 receptions to his covered receiver. Expect Big Ben to be looking to continue the trend of targeting the slumping sophomore.
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2) Patriot’s Tight Ends vs. Steelers Linebackers
Though most of the news in New England about Rob Gronkowski (+12.1) being surrounded his extracurricular activities over the bye week (or, more accurately, his friend’s extracurricular activities), a more important focus should be the role the tight end played in dismantling the Steelers defense last year. In last year’s matchup, Gronk caught all five of his targeted passes for 72 yards and three touchdowns. This year, the Steelers will also likely have to worry about Aaron Hernandez (+1.1) who only played 11 snaps in last year’s matchup. Since returning to the offense, Hernandez has clearly presented to be a tough matchup for every defense he has faced, catching 13 of 21 targets for113 yards and a game-winning touchdown against the Cowboys. After two consecutive weeks with crucial turnovers, however, expect Hernandez to be focused on keeping his slipperiness limited to his run after catch and not his receiving or ball-carrying ability. Though neither of the tight ends top any of PFF’s tight end signature stat categories, at least one of the New England tight ends is in the top ten of each category ranging from Drop Rate to Yards per Pass Route Run making them a deadly combo. Expect the Steeler’s inside linebackers James Farrior and Larry Foote to have a rough night of sleep as they not only have to be responsible for the tight end duo, but the absence of James Harrison should result in more time for Brady to wait for them to get open.
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3) Lamarr Woodley vs. Patriots Right Tackle (Vollmer or Solder)
Since the absence of James Harrison from the Steelers lineup, Lamarr Woodley (+3.9) has responded with three of his more productive games, notching two sacks in each with an additional five quarterback disruptions (two hits, three pressures) over the three game span. Though he is not playing as well as Harrison was before his orbital bone fracture, Woodley’s play has helped boost the Steelers’ defense during the team’s three-game winning streak. To increase their chances against the Patriots, Woodley will have to continue to get pressure to disrupt the Patriots offense. This will be a tough task for the Steelers since the Patriots’ offensive line is third best in PFF’s pass blocking efficiency measure, Woodley will likely have one of the more favorable matchups given he typically rushes from the left outside linebacker spot. He will either be facing Sebastian Vollmer (+0.9) who has only played 64 snaps this season after being hampered by a back injury, or rookie Nate Solder (-0.7) who has been impressive but not invincible. He is the second-lowest graded player on the Patriots offensive line, which is more a reflection of how solid the entire offensive line is, but he has allowed a sack, two hits, and nine additional pressures. With Brady ranked middle-of-the-pack in PFF’s signature passing under pressure, Woodley taking advantage of his matchup might finally put an end to Brady’s tendency to humble the proud Steelers defense.
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