The Chicago Bears knew they’d have a tough three game stretch to start out the season (Atlanta, New Orleans, and Green Bay) and perhaps saw their Week 4 matchup with the Carolina Panthers as a bit of a breather. But the Bears are reeling after two straight losses and last year’s NFL doormats are arriving in Chicago with a new-found confidence – a justified one at that.
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One week after going toe-to-toe with the reigning Super Bowl Champs, the Panthers overcame sloppy field conditions, season-ending injuries and a poor performance from rookie quarterback Cam Newton (-4.9) to eke out a victory over Jacksonville. Jay Cutler may be claiming that this is not a “must-win” game for the Bears, but if they have any hopes of keeping up with the Packers and Lions in the NFC North, they certainly can’t afford to lose.
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Here are three matchups to watch for:
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1) Cam Newton vs. the Chicago Cover 2
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Newton racked up a ton of yards during his first two NFL games and most of those came on successful passing deep down the field. Of his throws of 10 yards or more he completed 28 of 43 for 567 yards.Newton’s biggest plays, including two touchdowns against Arizona in Week 1, came when his receivers got a step on their defender and the single-deep safety help was late arriving. He had a similar touchdown play against Green Bay that was called back due to a procedure penalty.
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Newton came crashing back to earth last week against a Jaguar defense playing primarily a two-deep zone. With his receivers bracketed on the deep routes, he was 4-of-13 passing on his throws of 10 yards or more. Newton was forced to fit passes into the windows of the Jacksonville zone and he just couldn’t do it. Throw after throw, the rookie missed his open receivers, and likely should have had two or three passes intercepted.
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The Bears are notorious for forcing opposing offenses into a short passing game with their Cover 2 defense. Any chance of success usually requires patience and precision. Newton has the opportunity to show that last week was a fluke, but if he struggles, those that questioned his accuracy during his rough preseason are likely to start hopping back off of the bandwagon.
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2) Jonathan Stewart vs. DeAngelo Williams
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Huh? Ok, so the real matchup to watch will be both of these running backs against the Bears’ run-stuffing linebackers, Lance Briggs (+5.0 vs. the run) and Brian Urlacher (+1.2). The question is why play both running backs, when one is so clearly outperforming the other? So far the snaps between Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams have been pretty evenly split and Head Coach Ron Rivera claims he plans to keep it that way. Charlotte fans and media are grumbling, pointing to Stewart’s 3.9 yards per carry average vs. Williams’ 2.3. After doing a more in-depth comparison using our own Signature Stats, we’re scratching our heads as well.
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In our Elusive Rating rankings which compare a back’s ability to force missed tackles and gain yards after contact, Stewart is at the top of the league (among runners with at least 25% of their team’s carries) with a gaudy 131.9 rating. Only Buffalo’s Fred Jackson (119.5) is anywhere close and the next tier of contenders are all in the eighties. Williams, on the other hand, is dead last with a rating of 0.0. Yep, zip. Stewart also has a distinct advantage over Williams in our Breakaway Percentage stat, which looks at a back’s affinity for explosive runs.
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Williams is being outdone as a receiver as well. Stewart ranks in the Top 10 among running backs with a 2.69 Yards per Route Run average, while Williams languishes further down the list at 1.02. The Drop Rate comparison also favors Stewart.
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So why isn’t Stewart getting the vast majority of snaps over Williams, who was re-signed to a $43 million contract in the offseason? I think I just answered my own question.
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3) Greg Olsen vs. His Former Team
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Carolina Tight End, Greg Olsen is off to a solid start this year and will look to continue that success against his former teammates, Urlacher and Briggs in particular, who have been holding up well in coverage. Last year with the Bears, Olsen was a pass receiver on only 49% of his snaps. That meant lots of run blocking – not one of his strengths.
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Carolina, on the other hand, gets their TEs on the field and then actually passes to them. Through three games, Olsen has been given pass routes on 57% of his snaps and has made the most of them with 12 catches for 169 yards. His replacement in Chicago, Kellen Davis isn’t having nearly as much fun as Offensive Coordinator Mike Martz continues to show his disdain for the tight end position. When Davis does make it on the field, he’s more likely to be blocking (87 snaps) than receiving (45). Look for Olsen to try to show Martz and the Bears what they’re missing out on.
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