On paper, this looks like one of the most lopsided matchups of 2011, as you have two teams that are on opposite ends of the spectrum in just about every single category: last year’s Super Bowl winners vs. last year’s “First Pick in the Draft” winners; a veteran quarterback and a head coach at the top of their games versus a rookie quarterback and head coach playing in just their second game; one team that has been struggling to put two starting-caliber wide outs on the field versus one team struggling to keep five starting caliber wide-outs happy.
TV talking heads, national sports media and conventional wisdom all have this one as a blowout. However at Pro Football Focus, we look past all the hyperbole and supposition to give you the full analysis based on cold hard facts. And the facts tell us….well, that this game should be a blowout.
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Green Bay’s Receivers vs. Carolina’s Interior Pass Coverage
The loss of middle linebacker Jon Beason for the season certainly doesn’t help an already overmatched team. However, we had his replacement, backup linebacker Dan Connor, rated higher than most starting linebackers last season, and although his coverage leaves much to be desired he may actually be an upgrade over Beason against the run. In passing situations, Carolina will probably keep Thomas Davis and James Anderson on the field, and move safety Chris Godfrey into the slot. While Davis rated well-enough back in 2009, he missed all of last year with multiple knee surgeries while Godfrey had some poor games in coverage during his 2010 campaign. Expect all of these linebackers to be tested often by the likes of Jermichael Finley, Donald Driver and rookie Randall Cobb, as all of these players can punish you over the middle of the field.
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Jeff Otah vs. Clay Matthews
Hidden in Cam Newton’s impressive debut (+6.6), were his significant struggles when under pressure. When Arizona's defenders got in his face, his 125.2 passer rating without pressure nosedived to 55.4 and he was 4-10 passing during those pressured attempts, which is something to be expected from a rookie quarterback. There was plenty of blame to go around with Carolina’s tight ends, running backs, and nearly the entire offensive line (minus Jordan Goss +0.8) posting negative grades in pass protection.
With all that being said, no one had a worse day than right tackle Jeff Otah. If his six pressures yielded weren’t bad enough, the fact that the majority of them came from Arizona’s Clark Haggans proves just how bad his performance was. Haggens was squarely at the very bottom of our outside linebacker ratings last year, yet Otah made him look like Clay Matthews clone. While Otah had decent enough seasons in 2008 and 2009, he missed all of last year with a knee injury and the Panthers have got to be hoping that he’s just shaking off a little rust.
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Cam Newton vs. Packer Interior Pass Coverage
Facing one of the better pass defenses in the league, the Panthers are likely to lean a bit more heavily on their rushing game this week. However, Newton should still have some opportunities to throw the ball deep, and the best place for him to look will be in the middle of the field. With Tramon Williams questionable at cornerback for the Packers, Charles Woodson will likely have to move to the outside in their primary 2-4-5 defense, while Jarrett Bush will man the slot. Green Bay’s linebackers struggled last week, covering New Orleans’ tight ends and running backs, so look for both Greg Olsen and Jeremy Shockey to take advantage of their matchups against Bush, A.J. Hawk and Eric Walden.
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Whether or not Carolina’s tight ends galloping through the middle of the Packer’s defense is enough to spark an upset remains to be seen, but as I stated at the beginning of this article, this game has the makings of a blowout.
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