Three to Focus on: Packers @ Giants, Week 13

It was 17-straight wins ago that a desperate Packers team hosted the Giants on a cold, late December afternoon at Lambeau Field. Green Bay had just come off two close losses and their playoff hopes were hanging by a thread. The Packers’ 45-17 victory would mark the start of a winning streak that would eventually crown them World Champions, and almost a year later, put them in a position to clinch a playoff berth with another win.

The Giants are in the midst of what is seems to be their perennial late-season collapse. They've lost three in a row, including last Monday’s disheartening defensive meltdown against the Saints. They appeared out of sorts trying to keep up with New Orleans’ pre-snap looks — and after the snap, things got much worse. New York gave up a humiliating 577 yards of total offense to go along with 31 first downs. There’s no doubt the Packers could post similar numbers if the Giants can’t right the ship.

Ahmad Bradshaw vs. B.J. Raji

The Giants are hoping for the return of a healthy Ahmad Bradshaw to their running back corps this week. Bradshaw has missed the last four games with a stress fracture in his foot, and in his absence, the trio of Brandon Jacobs, Danny Ware and Ja'Rel Scott have combined for a rather pedestrian 3.2 yards per carry. Prior to his injury, Bradshaw had been rolling along at 4.0 YPC. He is currently seventh among NFL backs in both our overall grading (+11.3) and our Elusive Rating rankings.

Bradshaw claims he’s ready to go, and if he does, New York will not only welcome the return of some explosiveness to their running game but also reliable protection for Eli Manning on passing downs. Bradshaw’s +3.4 pass blocking grade is good for fourth among the league’s halfbacks and he’s allowed only one hit and one pressure all year.

B.J. Raji had a breakout season last year and with the loss of Cullen Jenkins (free agency) and Mike Neal (knee), the Packers were counting on Raji to pick up where he left off. He hasn’t. His run defense wasn’t always consistent in 2010, but he at least finished with respectable -0.7 cumulative rating. Through the first eight games of this season Raji had played a whopping 88% of the team's defensive snaps, but was less effective against the run (and pass, for that matter) with a grade of -2.5.

Since then, Green Bay has cut back on his playing time – down to 67% of defensive snaps — hoping that a fresher Raji will also mean a more effective one. So far that hasn’t been the case. His grade is now down to -5.8 and Raji still hasn't posted a positive game in run defense since Week 2 against the Panthers.

David Diehl vs. Clay Matthews

David Diehl has played primarily at left tackle for most of his career with the Giants. From 2008 (PFF’s first year) through the first half of 2009 he was still managing to hold his own as a pass blocker. What changed in Week 8 of the 2009 season, we don't know … but ever since then Diehl has been on a steep decline in pass protection. In fact, he hasn’t graded in the green for pass blocking in a single one of his last 32 games.

We expected his move to left guard this year to at least stem some of the damage he was allowing, but his astronomical 35 total pressures yielded this season is the highest among all guards. So what did the Giants do when they lost LT Wil Beatty to IR (eye) prior to last week’s game? They slid Diehl back over to left tackle for more of the same: a -1.9 pass block rating, three pressures and a sack. At least the Giants finally got some positive play again at LG where Kevin Boothe finished with a +1.2 overall grade as Diehl’s replacement.

Diehl will remain at left tackle this week which should mean we'll be hearing Clay Matthews’ name quite a bit. Matthews has continued his trend of terrorizing opposing quarterbacks without piling up the sacks. He only has five of them, yet he's our fourth-ranked 3-4 OLB in pass rushing (+18.5) and ranks ninth among all NFL defenders in our Pass Rushing Productivity ratings. Matthews is getting it done by leading 3-4 OLBs in quarterback hits (16) and batted passes (5), while trailing only Miami’s Cameron Wake (56) in total pressures with 54. It's hard to imagine the Giants will risk leaving Diehl one-on-one very often against Matthews, so expect plenty of help from their backs and tight ends.

Mathias Kiwanuka vs. Scott Wells

Mathias Kiwanuka (+12.2) has been the Giants’ most dependable defender against the run this season. He ranks fifth in that category among 4-3 outside linebackers and his size and ruggedness serve well for neutralizing interior lineman. He’s been playing with violence and seems to prefer attacking blockers head-on to earn his 31 stops on the year.

Kiwanuka should provide a healthy challenge for center Scott Wells, who hasn't been as effective in the run game as of late. Through Week 9 he had been among our top-rated centers in run blocking (+6.9). Since then, three subpar weeks have dropped him down to +2.4. Taking a closer look at those three games, we see Wells giving up penetration to defensive tackles and not reaching the second level in time to deliver solid blocks on linebackers.