Three to Focus on: Packers @ Chargers, Week 9

While expected by some to be a preview of Super Bowl XLVI, this game has lost some of its luster due to a San Diego team that has looked rather ordinary of late. A rash of penalties and turnovers have been at the heart of the recent two-game skid that now has the Chargers tied for first place with the Raiders and Chiefs at 4-3 in the AFC West.

San Diego sportswriters seem to be jumping on the team’s sudden mediocrity–citing a lack of talent on defense and aging or injured talent on offense. Coaching and drafting have also been called into question. The grumbling gets worse as they look ahead to the visit from the 7-0 Packers.

Not so fast though. This is a Packers team who is on the road and playing their first game against an opponent with a winning record. For all their dominance in the win column, Green Bay has some serious weaknesses on defense that San Diego appears well-equipped to exploit. Perhaps there’s more at stake here for a Chargers team looking to turn their fortunes around, than for a Packers team simply looking to maintain the status quo?

1) Phillip Rivers vs. Charles Woodson

Phillip Rivers and Charles Woodson are absolute interception machines this year, with both leading the league for their respective sides of the line of scrimmage. Rivers has thrown 11 picks during an uncharacteristically inconsistent season causing some to question his accuracy. Examining his Completion Percentage might lead you to believe that. Rivers completed 66.0% of his passes in 2010 and is down to 64.5% this season.

In reality, that dip is primarily due to a sharp increase in throw aways—15 already this year after 23 in all of 2010. When using our Accuracy Percentage to account for those throw aways, along with spiked passes and drops, we find that Rivers’ accuracy is actually up slightly this year (74.1%) over last (73.3%). So why all the throw aways? The offensive line? Nope. Phillips is actually encountering less pressure on his drop backs this season (27.2%) than he did last season (34.9%).

“Sometimes he’s trying too hard,” Head Coach Norv Turner said in a recent press conference. “I think sometimes he’s trying to make plays where there aren’t (plays to be made) … I think there are times when he’s trying to do more than he needs to do.” That sounds like Turner would like his QB to throw the ball away even more. Which begs a question for Turner–why aren’t there as many plays there to be made this year?

Woodson hopes to add to his interception total this week, but should also look to shore up some of the more fundamental aspects of his game. His coverage rating on the year appears adequate (+1.3), but those five interceptions are helping to cover up plenty of blemishes. While he has a well-earned reputation as a pass rusher and a tackler, Woodson is definitely not living up to it this season. Defensive Coordinator Dom Capers continues to send him on the blitz (-3.6 on 45 pass rushes) but as only been rewarded with a single sack and pressure. Woodson also has six missed tackles and is grading out at -4.6 in run defense. Two weeks ago against the Vikings, he was no match for Adrian Peterson’s lateral quickness, missing tackles that led to big gains on the final plays of both the first and third quarters.

2) Packers Wide Receivers vs. Marcus Gilchrist

Last week, the Chargers benched their 2008 first-round pick Antoine Cason in favor of rookie second-rounder Marcus Gilchrist. The move was questioned by many Chargers fans–after all, Cason was expected to be a long term answer at cornerback after an impressive 2010 campaign (+9.1). Our analysis of Cason’s performance this year suggests a change may have been needed. Week in and week out, Cason had disappointed in coverage, allowing a NFL QB Passer Rating of 114.4 along with five touchdowns. At -10.2 we have him rated as one of the league’s poorest performing cornerbacks.

The question is—will Gilchrist be any better? He didn’t appear to be on Monday. Chiefs QB Matt Cassel rang up a 145.1 passer rating throwing in his direction (8-11, 138 yards, 1 TD). Gilchrist plopped the sour cherry on the top of his miserable outing with two critical missed tackles during the Chiefs’ winning drive in overtime.

Things won’t get any easier this week facing the Packers deep and talented receiving corp. You can always debate how much the QB makes the WR or vice versa, but the bottom line is that the Packers receivers are holding up their end of the bargain. Greg Jennings (76.4%) and James Jones (76.0%) are among the Top 5 receivers in the league for percentage of targeted passes caught. Jordy Nelson isn’t far behind, ranked 20th at 71%. These guys don’t just stop with the reception. Both Nelson (10.1 YAC/Rec) and Jones (8.5) are at the top of the league in punishing opposing defenses once the catch has been made.

3) Chargers Receiving RBs vs. Packers LBs

The Chargers face a lot of uncertainty in their backfield this week. Last week’s runners, Ryan Mathews (groin) and Curtis Brinkley (concussion) are question marks due to injury, while Mike Tolbert is expected to return after missing a game with a hamstring strain. When healthy, this group has been productive, especially as receivers.

Yards Per Route Run, one of our Signature Stats, takes into account how often players run a pass route, and is a better indicator of production than Yards Per Reception or even Yards Per Target. Mathews is averaging 2.51 YPRR, second only to Matt Forte among running backs. Tolbert is in fourth place with 2.48 YPRR.

As a group, the three RBs account for 30% of the Rivers’ targeted passes. That’s not a good omen for the Packers linebacking crew. When they’ve faced teams that use their RBs heavily in the passing game, the results haven’t been pretty. Darren Sproles took it to A.J. Hawk in Week 1, Jonathon Stewart had Desmond Bishop’s number in Week 2, and Erik Walden and Bishop struggled against Matt Forte in Week 3. Coverage has improved from this group as of late, but if the Chargers’ RBs are healthy come game time… watch out.