If you like defensive battles, then do we have a game for you! These teams have played 18 games this season with each scoring 20 or more points just once. In the last four weeks, the Jaguars are averaging a blistering 14 points per game. Over the same span, the juggernaut that is the Browns' offense has averaged 10 points per game and they remain the only team in the NFL to not have an offensive touchdown in the first or third quarters of any game this season.
While neither teams' offense has been putting up many points, the defenses have done their job in preventing their foes from scoring much either. Our PFF statistics agree, which is not a surprise since most of the plus players on each team are found on the defensive side of the ball.
Anytime a team scores in this game it will be a big deal, so don’t be surprised if it’s just a 6-3 victory one way or the other. While neither team is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, it would basically take a perfect second half of the season for either to advance. Since there are no playoff implications to worry yourself about, you can just sit back and enjoy the dominating defensive play.
Chris Ogbonnaya Meet Tyson Alualu
With Peyton Hillis (hamstring) and Montario Hardesty (calf) looking out and questionable, respectively, it looks like we’ll be seeing more of Chris Ogbonnaya (-5.2). He showed some improvement last week, but then again it was against the Rams' run D. The Jaguars' run defense is much more like the 49ers or Texans in terms of quality. Against those teams, Ogbonnaya averaged just 2.7 yards per carry, had two fumbles, and never had a run for more than 10 yards. Keep in mind he was signed off of the Texans' practice squad on October 17th and has essentially been with the team for just a month.
The Jaguars are seeing dividends from investing quite a bit of money on their defense this past offseason. They have a trio of linebackers in Paul Posluszny (+4.0 run defense), Daryl Smith (+11.9 run defense) and Clint Session (+3.5 run defense) who have 87 combined stops so far. Starting defensive ends Matt Roth (+11.9 run defense) and Jeremy Mincey (+6.3 run defense) both rank in the top 12 in terms of run defense for 4-3 ends, which leaves the one weakness at tackle. Terrance Knighton (+4.4 run defense) is actually a fairly decent 20th in our run defense rankings for defensive tackles/nose tackles but he may miss this game with an ankle injury. The major concern here is with Tyson Alualu (–6.4 run defense) who is consistently blocked, though he'll occasionally make a big play. He was rested in practice Wednesday, but look for the Browns to test him by running right at him this week.
Blaine Gabbert Meet Joe Haden
While other rookie quarterbacks have shined, Blaine Gabbert (-9.3) has yet to impress us … or anyone else, for that matter. The Browns' strength isn’t in their pass rush, which shouldn’t be a problem for them as Gabbert has struggled even when he doesn’t get pressured. So far, he's completed just half of his passes for 5.5 yards per attempt, and a PFF pass rating of -6.5 when he has time. He might have more problems than usual, as Joe Haden (+6.2) has rapidly grown into his own. For every two passes he’s allowed to be complete, he also has a pass defensed. Haden has also only allowed 70 yards after the catch in eight games missing the Oakland game with a sprained left knee. The only time that Gabbert has started against a cornerback of similar quality, it was Houston's Johnathan Joseph. In that game, Joseph allowed just one catch for twelve yards while being targeted four times. It has been hard enough for Gabbert when he has each of his options available. It will be even harder here as Haden will likely shadow the Jaguars' best wide receiver, Mike Thomas, who is really a slot receiver playing the No. 1 role.
Help Us Colt McCoy….You’re Our Only Offensive Hope
With apologies to Maurice Jones-Drew, the best chance for there to be some offensive spark in this game is from Colt McCoy (+8.6). The Jaguars' best pass rushers are defensive ends John Chick (+7.9 pass rush) who has an abdomen injury and might not play, and Jeremy Mincey (+6.1 pass rush). They will line up against Joe Thomas (+10.7 pass block) and Tony Pashos (+6.0 pass block) who rank first and tied for third, respectively, in our Pass Blocking Efficiency ratings at 97.5 and 96.8. They should be able to keep the pressure to a minimum here, which is necessary for McCoy’s success. His Accuracy Percentage is 72.9 when there is no pressure and 53.6 when there is. Similarly, his PFF pass rating is +18.5 when there is no pressure and -5.5 when there is.
While Derek Cox (+6.0) for the Jaguars has looked great in only allowing nine catches in five starts, the rest of the secondary won’t scare many people. They've lost their No. 1 cornerback, Rashean Mathis, for the season due to a torn ACL, so William Middleton (+1.5 coverage) returns to the starting lineup. Since McCoy should have the time to throw, the Browns have the potential to make a few plays in the passing game. Just a few plays might be all they need.
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