Prior to the season, one of these team was supposed to be an NFC powerhouse, while the other one was supposed to be fighting tooth and nail for a playoff spot. The Atlanta Falcons were supposed to be the up and coming ones, but who knew that in mid-October, the Detroit Lions would be tied for the second best record in the NFC.
Tides began to turn last week, as the Lions got their first loss of the season while the Falcons beat a division opponent. A Falcons win would continue the Atlanta turn around and start a Detroit downfall; however, if the Lions win they would match their entire win total from last year, while the Falcons would match their loss total from last year. Here are three matchups which will determine the outcome.
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1) Watch Out Ryan
Possibly the biggest difference between the 2010 Atlanta Falcons and the 2011 Atlanta Falcons is the play of their offensive line. All five starters have negative pass block ratings, which has left Matt Ryan under pressure on one in every three pass attempts. With Todd McClure (-3.4) returning to the lineup for a second straight week, the Falcons get a center who is a better run blocker but a worse pass blocker. The least effective linemen for them this season has been Sam Baker (-15.0), who in one game earlier this season allowed a total of 12 pressures. When under pressure, Ryan goes from an accuracy percentage of 77.3% to an accuracy of 53.4% when pressured.
You can expect Ryan to be under even more pressure this week, as he goes up against the Lions’ pass fearsome rush. Six of the players on their defensive line rotation have cumulated at least ten pressures each, while 2011 first round pick Nick Fairley (+2.9) who has just played two weeks looks to join that list soon. While the unit has just averaged four quarterback sacks/hits a game; against this poor offensive line I expect to see Ryan on the ground even more than that.
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2) When Ryan Can Throw
The Falcons top target from last year Roddy White (-1.1) has not been nearly as successful this time around. In 2010, White was able to catch over 68% of passes thrown his way, while this year it’s down to less than 58%. He has already dropped the ball five times, and last week he was targeted just five times for two catches and 21 yards. His second target Julio Jones (+1.7) missed last week’s game and practice Wednesday, so even if he does play he won’t be 100%.
If Detroit has a weakness one defense, it’s in their defensive backfield. Their cornerbacks and safeties alone have missed 22 tackles this year, which is more than a handful of defenses have missed as an entire unit. The weakest links are in cornerback Eric Wright (-1.6 coverage) and safety Amari Spievey (-1.9 coverage), who are each coming off of three straight games of negative coverage ratings. If the Falcons want to keep up in points with the Lions, this is where White needs to step up and take advantage.
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3) Calvin Johnson vs. Brent Grimes
The last time the Lions and Falcons faced off was in 2008. In that game, there were five times where Johnson was thrown to, while Grimes was in coverage against him. Johnson had 41 yards on three catches, and over the course of the game he had a positive rating and Grimes had a negative one. Both players have seen their ratings increase each year that we’ve been grading players, and are on pace to do better than 2010 so far.
For the Lions, Calvin Johnson (+11.0) has averaged 113 receiving yards over the past four games, and his nine touchdowns gives him a clear league lead. For the Falcons, Brent Grimes (+7.4) has yet to allow more than 55 yards in a game, and has allowed just 53.3% of passes thrown his way to be caught. While Grimes might not always be covering Johnson, when he does it will be a great matchup to watch. If Grimes can slow Johnson down, than it will go a long way in helping Atlanta get a victory on the road. However, if Johnson plays as well as he has in other games this season, it would be hard for any team to keep up with them, let alone the fast improving Grimes.
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