Expectations weren’t high for either the Cleveland Browns or the San Francisco 49ers coming into the year; yet we’re nearly half way through the season and Cleveland is sitting at .500 and San Francisco has the second best record in the NFC. Outside of their running backs, these teams are doing it with players that aren’t the best known players; but some of them should be.
The 49ers are the clear favorite as they are the better team and at home. However, there are a few areas where the two teams matchup very closely and others where the 49ers have a clear advantage. The motivation for both teams is clearly there, as the 49ers have the NFC West pretty well locked up and are fighting for a first round bye, while the Browns could remain in the four way battle for the AFC North if they can pick up their play.
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1) Struggling Receivers vs. Star Cornerbacks
The best receiver on either team this year has been Josh Morgan, who is currently out with an injury. This leaves Michael Crabtree (-2.9 pass) as the top receiver for the 49ers, and he has caught just 55% of the balls thrown his way for just 10 yards/catch; both below average for starting receivers. With that being said, Crabtree has yet to score a touchdown and has five dropped passes which doesn’t help his case either. The Browns are trying to rely more heavily on Greg Little (-1.8 pass) to spark their offense. Little plays more in the slot than out wide, and you would like your slot receivers to gain a lot of yards after the catch, but he has just 3.7 yard after the catch, which ranks 43rd of 64 receivers to have played at least 50% of snaps.
Lining up across from these sub-par players are two potential starting Pro Bowl cornerbacks Carlos Rogers (+9.6) is having a career resurgence with the 49ers and while he is constantly allowing a few catches a game, it has just been for 11 yards per catch. In addition to that, he’s been able to intercept three balls thrown his way and defend six of them. While Joe Haden (+7.0) hasn’t had many interceptions yet, he has defended nine balls which is tied for the league lead, while he’s only allowed 13 balls to be caught. Both teams have depth behind these players, as the 49ers rank first in terms of overall coverage, and the Browns rank third.
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2) Frank Gore vs. Browns Front Four
The best player on the 49ers’ offense, to no one’s surprise, is running back Frank Gore (+5.0 run). Over the past three games, he’s had 50 carries for 393 yards and three touchdowns, and he has had six players miss tackles on him. It’s hard to get much better than that, and he’s been doing it behind an average run blocking offensive line.
However, the Browns’ defensive line has exceeded expectations. Unlike most teams, they use the same four linemen for the majority of plays, and all four have between 12 and 15 stops. The leading lineman is Jayme Mitchell (+5.0 run defense) at right defensive end after being buried on the Vikings depth chart in recent years. If Gore can get past these four, then he will have to deal with D’Qwell Jackson (+11.8 run defense) who’s 27 stops is tied for third amongst inside/middle linebackers. While the 49ers are favored, they will have hard time getting the ball down the field.
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3) Browns guards vs. 49ers defensive ends
When the 49ers move to multiple defensive back sets, typically Justin Smith (+15.8 pass rush) and Ray McDonald (+10.9 pass rush) play as the interior two linemen on a four man rushing front. This lines Smith and McDonald up against the interior linemen, but in three men front they will also be blocked by guards at times. Smith’s 36 overall pressures leads all 3-4 defensive ends, while McDonald’s 25 is third behind Antonio Smith.
While the Browns are solid at the tackle position and center in terms of pass protection; their guards are more troublesome. Both left guard Jason Pinkston (-8.6) and right guard Shawn Lauvao (-6.1) are both in the bottom 20 in terms of pressure allowed by guards. It’s hard to come up with any pair that is harder to go up against, so expect Colt McCoy to be feeling the pressure a little more than usual to make things even harder for him on offense.
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