The Patriots and Chargers renew their rivalry after not playing in over two years. In Week 6 of the 2008 season, the Patriots traveled to San Diego and got destroyed by QB Philip Rivers (+5.1) in a 30-10 victory for the Chargers. He completed two thirds of his passes for 306 yards and three touchdowns.
For the Patriots, receivers Randy Moss (-2.3) and Wes Welker (-1.9) each had among their worst games for the Patriots. Moss only had three catches for 26 yards and two drops, while Welker had one drop and allowed an interception.
The Patriots need to…
Keep the pressure on Philip Rivers
Philip Rivers (+22.8) has continued to be one of the best QBs in the NFL this year, with grades of +3.0 or higher in the past five games. However, when Rivers is under pressure he has performed significantly worse. He has completed less than half of his passes and has been sacked 20% of the time. The Patriots best pass rusher has been defensive lineman Mike Wright (+2.3) who has had 12 combined pressures on 102 pass rushes. New England played Brandon Deaderick a lot last week against Baltimore, but look for Wright to get more snaps in San Diego. With many of Rivers weapons likely out, a few bad decisions passing to backup receivers could be costly for the Chargers.
The Chargers need to…
Attack the middle of the field in the passing game
Where Rivers has been most successful this year is the middle of the field between 10-19 yards, where he has a +9.0 rating. Rivers needs to hope TE Antonio Gates (+6.1) plays, because he is the best option against a Patriots who have a weakness at safety. Patrick Chung (-2.3) has allowed 13 catches for 170 yards and a touchdown over the last two games. If Gates can get past the LBs of the Patriots, Rivers could have a big game throwing to his favorite target.
Matchups
Patriots TE’s Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez vs. ILB Kevin Burnett
Gronkowski (+4.0) and Hernandez (+1.6) have been two targets that Tom Brady (+16.1) have been able to depend on this year. They have combined for 29 catches on 34 throws, 387 yards and two touchdowns. They go up against a linebacking crew led by ILB Kevin Burnett (+10.2) who has had up and down games against the pass. He has allowed less than half of the passes thrown his way get completed, and will have a tough time against these young Patriots.
Chargers LT Marcus McNeill vs. Patriots ROLB Tully Banta-Cain
One of the biggest reasons the Chargers haven’t been winning is because of their inability to block the pass rush. That has made a turn for the better with the return of LT Marcus McNeill (+2.0) who only allowed one sack and one pressure last week. He will be often up against Patriots ROLB Tully Banta-Cain (-0.1). While Banta-Cain was a solid every-down back in 2009, he has been shifted to a pass-rush specialist on the right side in 2010 (49 snaps in pass rush out of 76 total the last two weeks). This matchup will be one to look to.
Notes
Even though neither of these teams has a rusher ranked in the top 20, both teams have an overall positive rating in the run game. … Chargers safety Eric Weddle is currently atop the grades at his position (+7.2). … Shaun Phillips has six sacks, but only 14 total QB disruptions in 134 rushes (below average). … The Patriots' three tight ends are all graded in the top 16 among the 57 qualifying TEs.
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