NFL News & Analysis

Predicting the 2022 NFL MVP: Patrick Mahomes is still out in front, but Josh Allen is still in it

Inglewood, California, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass bring the first quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

Patrick Mahomes is the clear favorite: Mahomes is PFF’s highest-graded passer and the clear MVP favorite. He is also the only quarterback who ranks in the top three in both generating positively graded plays and avoiding negatively graded plays.

Josh Allen coming on strong down the stretch: The Bills win out and finish the season 14-3 in our simulations, a mark that would give him a very high chance of winning the award.

A $10 bet on Mahomes to win MVP would return $17.14 at BetMGM — qualified bettors from Kansas will also get a free PFF+ subscription and $200 in free bets!

Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

The MVP race didn't change much in Week 12, as Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow all played relatively well and won their games but didn’t produce any outstanding individual stats.

So, how do the odds stack up going into Week 13?

Every week throughout the season, we will rank quarterbacks by their estimated MVP chances. These chances are based on simulating the remaining season and looking at individual efficiency stats and team success. The full methodology can be found in our initial version of this year’s MVP rankings.

2022 NFL MVP Favorites

QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Week 12 stats: 79.6 PFF grade | 0.28 EPA per play
Season to date: 91.5 PFF grade | 0.28 EPA per play

Mahomes is PFF’s highest-graded passer and the clear MVP favorite. He is also the only quarterback who ranks in the top three in both generating positively graded plays and avoiding negatively graded plays.

In Week 13 he plays against the Cincinnati Bengals, his nemesis from last season and by far the best opponent left on his schedule. He will surely be extra motivated and could virtually clinch the award if he plays well and wins.

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Patrick Mahomes to win NFL MVP -140
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QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Week 12 stats: 75.2 PFF grade | 0.19 EPA per play
Season to date: 90.7 PFF grade | 0.22 EPA per play

Allen’s MVP odds moved from +700 to +1400, a puzzling move, given that he played well and led a game-winning drive against the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day.

The Bills QB is definitely underrated in the MVP conversation. We estimate his MVP odds to be roughly 13%, double the market odds. It’s noteworthy that the Bills win out and finish the season 14-3 in our simulations, a mark that would give him a very high chance of winning the award.

Allen has gone on a late-season hot streak in each of the last two seasons, which is another reason why I think the market is low on him right now. 

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QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Week 12 stats: 78.7 PFF grade | 0.10 EPA per play
Season to date: 87.6 PFF grade | 0.12 EPA per play

Hurts and the Eagles offense enjoyed a bounce-back performance against the Green Bay Packers after playing two straight mediocre games. However, Hurts' individual stats have become gradually worse compared to other favorites throughout the season — to win the award against whoever ends up with the No. 1 seed in the AFC, the Eagles signal-caller probably has to win out at the very least.

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Jalen Hurts to win NFL MVP +325
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QB TUA TAGOVAILOA, MIAMI DOLPHINS

Week 12 stats: 71.3 PFF grade | 0.28 EPA per play
Season to date: 91.1 PFF grade | 0.35 EPA per play

After securing an expected win against the Houston Texans, Tagovailoa’s odds have gone almost unchanged. The question of whether he will be able to stay in the MVP conversation will be answered within the next three weeks, as he plays in San Francisco, Los Angeles and Buffalo.

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Defense adjustments

Our rankings also adjust for defenses faced. Quarterbacks who face easier defenses are more likely to put up stats that will eventually help win them the MVP award. We will update our pass-defense rankings throughout the season.

Using these rankings, this is the past strength of schedule of opposing passing defenses for quarterbacks:

This is the future strength of schedule of opposing passing defenses:

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