• What if Caleb Williams doesn't hit the ground running? A lot will be expected of Caleb Williams as he enters the NFL, and for good reason, as he earned a 90.0-plus PFF grade in all three of his college seasons. However, it’s worth noting that just six of the 29 rookie quarterbacks who have dropped back to pass 200-plus times over the past five years have earned a PFF grade of 75.0 or better.
• A drop-off for the Cowboys' blind side? Guyton has the physical tools to develop into a top player in the NFL, but his switch to the left side in Year 1 means quarterback Dak Prescott should expect a lot more pressure from his blind side in 2024.
• Get a head start on fantasy football: Use PFF's fantasy football mock draft simulator to create real live mock draft simulations to get ready for your live draft!
Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
It’s late May. Every team in the NFL is 0-0, and every fanbase has at least some reason for optimism heading into the season. Let's ruin that with a dash of pessimism by looking at one reason why every NFC team will miss the playoffs.
This is not a prediction of what will happen but rather the biggest question mark on each roster heading into the season.
To see one reason each AFC team won’t make the playoffs in 2024, click here.
JUMP TO A TEAM:
ARZ | ATL | CAR | CHI | DAL | DET | GB | LAR |
MIN | NO | NYG | PHI | SF | SEA | TB | WSH
Arizona Cardinals: Young prospects aren’t ready for starring roles
The Cardinals have drafted well over the past two seasons, but we can’t pretend the NFL doesn’t have a steep learning curve, and the team looks set to feature three rookies and four second-year players in starting roles in 2024.
Left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. ended the season strong and finished 2023 with a 64.2 pass-blocking grade, and Marvin Harrison Jr. is good enough to be a factor right away, but this roster may still be a season away.
Atlanta Falcons: May not be able to generate enough pressure off the edge
Arnold Ebiketie improved as a pass rusher in his second year in the NFL, earning a 70.1 pass-rushing grade and racking up 28 total pressures (including seven sacks), but he was on the field for just 385 total snaps in 2023.
Opposite him, Lorenzo Carter has earned a 60.0-plus PFF grade in each of his two years with the Falcons but has never registered more than 35 total pressures in a single season.
Bralen Trice enters the fold as a solid third-round draft pick. However, unless he makes a significant impact as a rookie, edge defender remains the roster's biggest weakness.
Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young doesn’t develop as needed
Year 2 of Bryce Young’s NFL career will be pivotal — not just for him but also for the Panthers. New head coach Dave Canales, as well as the additions of Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette at wide receiver, will give the 2023 first overall pick a chance to take a step forward. Still, his 56.0 PFF grade last year ranked 37th out of the 39th quarterbacks who dropped back at least 200 times, so there’s a long way to go.
Chicago Bears: QB Caleb Williams doesn’t hit the ground running
A lot will be expected of Caleb Williams as he enters the NFL, and for good reason, as he earned a 90.0-plus PFF grade in all three of his college seasons. However, it’s worth noting that just six of the 29 rookie quarterbacks who have dropped back to pass 200-plus times over the past five years have earned a PFF grade of 75.0 or better.
Justin Fields earned a PFF grade of 74.6 in 2023 and the Bears failed to make the playoffs, so a playoff run with a rookie at quarterback in 2024 might be a stretch.
Dallas Cowboys: LT Tyler Guyton struggles early at left tackle
Despite his injury woes over the past few years, Tyron Smith was still one of the best pass protectors in football in 2023, and he finished the campaign with a position-leading 89.3 pass-blocking grade.
The Cowboys are going from that to Oklahoma product Tyler Guyton, who earned a 72.9 pass-blocking grade as a right tackle in college. Guyton has the physical tools to develop into a top player in the NFL, but his switch to the left side in Year 1 means quarterback Dak Prescott should expect a lot more pressure from his blind side in 2024.
Detroit Lions: The secondary wide receivers limit the offense
Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and tight end Sam LaPorta are the Lions' top two pass-catchers, and both players ranked inside the top seven at their positions in yards per route run last season.
The team did lose Josh Reynolds in free agency, though, and he accounted for 75 targets a year ago. Jameson Williams will be counted on to fulfill the potential that enticed the Lions to draft him with the 12th overall pick back in 2022, but his 18.4% drop rate in the NFL so far is a concern.
Green Bay Packers: Jordan Morgan struggles early at left tackle
The expectation is that Morgan will open the season as the Packers’ starting left tackle, replacing Rasheed Walker who was deputizing for David Bakhtiari in 2023.
Bakhtiari has battled injuries over the past few years but was one of the best pass-blockers in the NFL when healthy. Unlike Guyton in Dallas, Morgan isn’t switching sides as a rookie, and he put up an 87.1 pass-blocking grade at left tackle at Arizona in 2023. Still, just five rookies earned a better pass-blocking grade than Walker's 74.7 last year, so the expectation is that he might be a downgrade to start.
Los Angeles Rams: The departure of Aaron Donald impacts the defense too much
Aaron Donald earned a PFF grade above 90.0 in every season of his storied career, and his 84 total pressures in the 2023 regular season were nine more than any other player on the defensive interior.
Kobie Turner was impressive as a rookie, earning an 80.5 PFF pass-rushing grade and registering 48 total pressures, and Braden Fiske was a nice selection for L.A. in the second round. However, there is little chance of the Rams' defensive interior not taking a significant step back in 2024.
Minnesota Vikings: The drop-off from Kirk Cousins to rookie J.J. McCarthy or Sam Darnold too severe
J.J. McCarthy and Kevin O’Connell can be a great long-term pairing in Minnesota, and Sam Darnold might not be a terrible bridge option, given that he is coming off a 74.8 passing grade in his lone start with the San Francisco 49ers last year.
That being said, Kirk Cousins earned a PFF grade above 77.0 in all six seasons with the Vikings, and that won’t be easy to replicate, though the Vikings should be better placed than they were after his injury last year.
New Orleans Saints: Too many question marks on the offensive line
One look at the Saints' depth chart should raise many questions about their offensive line. Taliese Fuaga was one of the top offensive tackles in this draft class after earning an 88.2 PFF grade at Oregon State in 2023, but he played precisely zero snaps at left tackle in college.
Right tackle Ryan Ramczyk reportedly could miss all of the 2024 season through injury, while their expected guard pairing of Olisaemeka Udoh (52.4) and Cesar Ruiz (51.2) each earned sub-par PFF grades a season ago.
New York Giants: Daniel Jones can’t get back to the level of play he showed from 2020 to 2022
The Giants got to the playoffs in 2022, with head coach Brian Daboll helping quarterback Daniel Jones to a 76.0 PFF grade, the second-best mark of his five-year career. However, he struggled in 2023 and played just 21 snaps after Week 5 due to injury.
Getting the former Duke quarterback back to the level of play he showed from 2020 to 2022 is the minimum needed to get them back to the playoffs. Even that is unlikely to be enough to take them deep into the postseason, though, with Jones producing a big-time throw on just 3.0% of his pass attempts in his career so far.
Philadelphia Eagles: Young defensive backs aren’t ready for bigger roles
The Eagles' roster is loaded, and despite the late-season collapse in 2023, they should be one of the top teams in the conference again in 2024. They will likely rely on a pair of rookies to play a significant role in the secondary, though.
While Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean were both top prospects, just 17 rookie cornerbacks since 2006 have managed to earn an 80.0-plus grade in Year 1.
San Francisco 49ers: Dre Greenlaw missing time early hurts their defense
The 49ers roster is also loaded, and they are rightly favored to emerge from the NFC again in 2024. The loss of Dre Greenlaw should not be underestimated, though, with the linebacker earning PFF coverage grades above 70.0 in each of the past two seasons.
The 49ers hope that pairing De'Vondre Campbell with Fred Warner in Greenlaw's absence will help Campbell return to the form that saw him earn PFF coverage grades of 81.0 or better in 2021 and 2022 before struggling in his final season in Green Bay.
Seattle Seahawks: The defense takes time to adjust to Mike MacDonald’s system
MacDonald will bring excitement to the Seattle Seahawks with a brand of defense that wrestled some of the dominance back from opposing offenses over the past two seasons in Baltimore.
While his Ravens defense was dominant in 2023, it did take the team some time to settle in his first season as defensive coordinator in 2022. Over the first nine weeks of the season, the Ravens defense ranked fifth worst in the NFL in success rate allowed (46.3%).
The long-term outlook for the Seahawks is very positive; it just might take a little bit of time for them to find their footing with MacDonald’s scheme.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The defense fails to generate enough pressure off the edge
The Buccaneers had just one player record 40 or more total pressures in the regular season in 2023, and that was Shaquil Barrett, whom the team released this offseason.
The Bucs' starting edge defenders are currently slated to be Yaya Diaby and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, who wouldn’t have ranked among the top 30 edge defenders in regular-season QB pressures even if you combined their output.
Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels takes time to get going
This is similar to the situation with the Chicago Bears in that while the arrow should be pointing upward for the Commanders, the expectation that Daniels will be able to produce enough to lead them to the playoffs as a rookie should be low.
Daniels' high pressure-to-sack rate in college — coming in at 20.2% in his best season in 2023 — will hurt the team this year unless it can be fixed quickly.
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