NFL News & Analysis

Despite their tough playoff loss, the Packers have a bright 2024 ahead

2WD6TNN Green Bay Packers tight end Luke Musgrave (88) and other Packer players including Jordan Love (10) celebrate after a touchdown reception during an NFL wild-card playoff football game Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024 in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Matt Patterson)

After trading Aaron Rodgers last offseason, the Green Bay Packers entered the 2023 season with a singular focus: find out whether Jordan Love is the next franchise quarterback.

The front office surrounded him with the youngest group of skill players in the NFL, hoping that they would jell amid bumps along the way.

Mission accomplished.

Green Bay’s offense was so efficient during the second half of the season that it completely changed the outlook of the team's future.

Green Bay Packers Offensive Metrics | Week 9-Divisional Round
Metric Total Rank
EPA/Play 0.154 3rd
Offensive Grade 84.7 3rd
Passing Grade 90.8 1st
Receiving Grade 85.3 2nd
Rushing Grade 84.5 T-7th

Love’s tremendous improvement and Aaron Jones’ improved health turned the Packers’ offense into an elite unit. Their 84.7 team offense grade trailed only the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers, the two remaining NFC teams.

Perhaps more incredible than Love’s turnaround were the contributions from Green Bay's young weapons.

Including the postseason, the Packers' top six players in receiving yardage and receiving grade were playing in either their first or second NFL season. The fact that none were first-round picks makes the feat even more astounding.

Consider:

From Week 9 through the divisional round, Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft combined for 594 receiving yards. Only three tight ends finished with more in that span.

Fifth-rounder Dontayvion Wicks’ 77.0 receiving grade ranked ahead of all but two of the 17 receivers drafted ahead of him.

Second-rounder Jayden Reed tallied 653 receiving yards from the slot in the regular season to rank third in the NFL, behind CeeDee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

2022 fourth-rounder Romeo Doubs made 15 contested catches this season, tied for the fifth most in the NFL.

And that's without mentioning Christian Watson, Green Bay’s presumed top receiver, because he battled injuries for most of the season.

There may not be a deeper stable of weapons in the NFL heading into the 2024 season. The design of the Packers' offense has created something of a meritocracy in their passing game, and Jordan Love found those weapons down the stretch to near perfection.

A foundation of potentially elite quarterback play and an armory of solid weapons gives Green Bay an impressive floor in 2024. Of course, the team will need to play at a high level for a full season to compete with the conference's top teams come the postseason.

So, what do the Packers need to become NFC contenders?


Interior Offensive Line Help

Elgton Jenkins is entrenched at left guard, but the center and right guard spots could use improvement. Center Josh Myers and right guard Jon Runyan rank in the bottom 12 at their respective positions with sub-60.0 grades.

Luckily, the Packers appear set at both tackle spots after hitting on 2022 late-round picks Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom. Finding proven interior pass protectors should be a top priority.

Green Bay won’t have a ton of cap space, even after likely cutting offensive tackle David Bakhtiari, so a move for Kevin DotsonPFF's top free-agent guard is unlikely. A cheaper signing of someone like Raiders guard Greg Van Roten or center Andre James would make sense, as each recorded solid pass-protection numbers this past season.

In the 2024 NFL Draft, Rimington Trophy-winning center Jackson-Powers Johnson (90.6 pass-blocking grade in 2023) is an impact pass protector if he is within the Packers' range. He allowed just four pressures across 758 pass-blocking snaps during his college career.

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If Green Bay is looking for a guard on draft weekend, UConn’s Christian Haynes would be a good fit. His 89.2 pass-blocking grade over the past two years ranked third among FBS right guards.


Coverage Over the Middle

The Packers have struggled to cover the middle of the field over the past few seasons.

Their safeties ranked 17th in coverage grade this season, and their linebackers placed 28th. The top three players from that safety group — Darnell Savage, Rudy Ford and Jonathan Owens — are all unrestricted free agents. That leaves former seventh-rounder Anthony Johnson Jr. as the only player remaining who played significant snaps in 2023.

PFF's Gordon McGuinness identified Ravens safety Geno Stone as a player whom Green Bay should target in free agency. He led the position with seven interceptions this year and currently owns an excellent 84.9 coverage grade. He fits the profile as a deep safety in Joe Barry’s Cover 3-heavy defense.

This may also be the most likely position that the Packers attack early in the draft. Minnesota safety Tyler Nubin stands out after leading the FBS with a 90.1 coverage grade. There would be a slight system adjustment for Nubin, but he certainly has the range and ball skills to fit in anywhere.

If the Packers are satisfied with their safety group after free agency, Clemson’s Jeremiah Trotter Jr. is an outstanding coverage linebacker they could target. His 92.0 coverage grade trailed only current Lions linebacker Jack Campbell among Power Five linebackers.


New Talent in the Running Back Room

Aaron Jones was excellent down the stretch, but he’ll be 30 years old in December and battled some injuries early this season.

A.J. Dillon is set to be an unrestricted free agent and comes off a year of nagging injuries and a 3.4 yards per carry figure.

While the Packers could re-sign Dillon or add a complementary pass catcher like Austin Ekeler in free agency, this is a void they may look to fill in the draft. There are a lot of running backs with solid mid-round talent in the upcoming class.

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A direct replacement for Dillon’s bruising run style could be Notre Dame’s Audric Estime. The near-230-pound bruiser led all Power Five running backs with a 94.2 overall grade. He also would fit in nicely with Green Bay’s zone running scheme, as he posted a 90.6 rushing grade when running a zone concept this past season.

If the Packers do re-sign A.J. Dillon, a pass-catching back like Oregon’s Bucky Irving could be an option. Irving led all FBS running backs with 55 catches and forced 21 missed tackles on those receptions. His presence would lighten the load on Aaron Jones and provide Jordan Love with another versatile weapon.

Love and the Packers’ explosive offense should give the team a very high floor to work with next season. They need to fill in some gaps around that unit, but the path toward NFC contention is very clear in Green Bay.

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