If there's one thing you've heard time and time again about the upcoming fantasy football season, it's that there's an incredible amount of depth at wide receiver. With the NFL shifting focus to being a pass-heavy league, many real-life teams have stocked up on veteran and rookie receivers, which means your fantasy team seems to have a wide array of riches from which you can choose.
However, this glut of receivers presents its own particular sets of challenges and problems. First, with so many teams fielding so many receivers, it's simply hard to tell which one will truly break out—with quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees heavily targeting different receivers on a week-by-week basis, there is a true aspect of risk-taking and gambling when selecting any receivers from teams like the Green Bay Packers or New Orleans Saints.
Further, a solid 2011 season doesn't mean a repeat performance in 2012. Though that's generally a common theme with many fantasy football positions, at one point receiver seemed a pretty solid, predictable position year after year. If you knew that Carson Palmer targeted Chad Ochocinco X amount of times in the previous year for X number of yards, you could safely assume a similar amount of targets and usage in the following season. Now, that's not really the case. Look at Jordy Nelson—in 2010, he had 582 receiving yards; last season, he had over 1,200 and 15 touchdowns. But this year? Who knows. Nelson seems like a good use of a draft pick, but you have to account for the serious changeability that happens on receiving depth charts any more.
ADP for wide receivers this year is thus even more mutable than ever. Players once considered to be a given aren't necessarily guaranteed to be his team's top playmaker in 2012, which makes navigating the sea of talent a bit more confusing than ever. With the quantity likely outpacing the quality when it comes to fantasy production, wide receiver ADP should be taken with a greater grain of salt than ever.
For example, looking at the receiver ADP at FFToolbox.com and our very own 2012 fantasy wide receiver rankings, I find a few striking errors. First is the ranking of Houston Texans receiver Andre Johnson. PFF lists Johnson as the fifth-overall fantasy receiver this year, but FFToolbox gives him ADP of 21 or 22 overall. This, despite the injury concerns that continue to plague him, the fact that he's now 31 years old and with Matt Schaub as his quarterback. The Texans found a formula for success last year in Johnson's nine-game absence and it didn't involve doing much passing.
With two capable running backs in Arian Foster and Ben Tate and a strong defense, the Texans can buck the current trend of high-volume passing and actually grind things out and win games using that strategy. It is understandable why fantasy GMs would still be high on Johnson this year, considering that beyond Johnson the Texans really don't have anyone of impact in their receiving corps.
However, there's no guarantee that Johnson will be targeted all that heavily, in the manner of a Calvin Johnson or A.J. Green, and there's certainly no guarantee that he'll stay healthy. Johnson has missed 12 games in the last two seasons, with hamstring and ankle surgeries during that time and had a knee scope this May. You should greatly temper your expectations about Johnson this year—personally, I think he's a must-avoid, though I know not everyone will have this luxury. If Johnson is still around in the third or fourth round of your draft, pick him up then, but I'd look for a more dynamic, healthier receiver on a team that is guaranteed to throw the ball regularly to be your No. 1.
And that player just may be Antonio Brown of the Pittsburgh Steelers. PFF ranks Brown as the 29th-best fantasy receiver and FFToolbox gives him an ADP of around 56th overall. If you can get him at 56 that would be an absolute steal. Yes, Brown has had just one year of real production, with 123 targets and 69 receptions, worth 1,108 yards and two scores in 2011, but I don't anticipate him dropping below 1,000 yards in 2012.
Some may think that with Todd Haley as the Steelers' offensive coordinator the team will return to the ground-and-pound running team they once were known for, but that approach remains firmly in the past. Yes, the Steelers will run more (it helps that their offensive line has improved) but not so much to cut into what is Pittsburgh's offense's true strength—the passing game. And Brown is going to figure into that more than he did even last year.
Pittsburgh's No. 1 receiver, Mike Wallace, is currently embroiled in a contract holdout that has the potential to extend into training camp. Though it won't likely affect his regular-season status, Wallace is behind on executing the new concepts that Haley has introduced to the offense thanks to missing both OTAs and minicamp. Though the learning curve shouldn't be incredibly steep for Wallace this year—at the very least, he can just get out there and get open, a strategy the team has employed with the route-running-challenged Wallace in the past—he'll still have some catching up to do, which presents quite the good opportunity for Brown to yet again have a very productive year.
There's also the fact that defenses key in on Wallace far more than they do on Brown. Wallace is the bigger scoring threat and is simply the No. 1 receiver, which obviously attracts more attention. That offers more chances for Brown to get open or to face single coverage (or even single zone coverage, be still our collective hearts) and the combination of that, his good hands and his speed make him an ideal target for Ben Roethlisberger.
Brown isn't a major red-zone threat, with the vast majority of his yards last season coming inside the Steelers' own 21-50 yard lines, but when the ball is on the Steelers' side of the field and Roethlisberger throws it to Brown, he nets a first down 87.8 percent of the time and had 20 or more yards in those situations 16 times and 40 or more thrice; Brown also averages nearly 16 yards per reception regardless of whether it's the first or second half of a game.
I'm not the first to say that Brown has high potential to outplay—and out-fantasy football score—Wallace this year, but I also agree with the assertion. While I do not think Wallace is as much a must-avoid as Johnson, I do think that between Wallace and Brown, you should grab Brown, and you should do so well before pick No. 56.
Other receivers with questionable ADPs:
Dez Bryant (FFT ADP: 34): Bryant does have the benefit of being on a Cowboys team that has been rather forced into fielding two receivers instead of three, but that's not going to help him. Bryant, last year, had a propensity to explode in the first quarter of games and then shrink in the other three, unable to separate from defenders or play all that physically. In first halves in 2011, Bryant had 37 receptions for 558 yards, with seven scores and 29 first downs. In the second half of games, he had 25 receptions for 344 yards, with just two touchdowns and 18 first downs. If you're going to pick Bryant, put it off as long as you can, or otherwise avoid him. You're going to be frustrated.
Greg Little (FFT ADP: 92): Little, in my estimation, is a major fantasy sleeper this year. His drops issues last year had more to do with rust and the lack of an offseason program in his rookie season than any real concerns about his hands or his talent. There's no chance that Little again posts a 51 percent catch rate this year. With Brandon Weeden as his quarterback, Little—who has one of the best vertical leaps in the league, might I add—could really produce for your fantasy team. Both Seneca Wallace and Colt McCoy have a career average yards per pass of 6.29, compared to Weeden's college average of 9.0. Though Pat Shurmur doesn't typically ask his quarterbacks to throw deep, Weeden's big, accurate arm may force him to change his tune somewhat. That's certainly of direct benefit to Little. If he's still on the board around the 100th pick in your league, then grab him, because you've got yourself quite the steal. But if I'm in your league, I am getting him far earlier.
Brandon Marshall (FFT ADP: 31): The reunion of Marshall with quarterback Jay Cutler has fantasy owners all a-flutter that the talented receiver will have his best season ever. And while I expect Marshall to get some heavy targets, he also had some issues. First, is that he'll have to deal with the same problem as Wallace—seeing tons of coverage. Second, just because he's back with Cutler doesn't mean it's a dream pairing—that's like being blinded by something simply because it's shiny. Third, Alshon Jeffery, full stop. Jeffery may prove himself to be the best receiver of this year's draft class and he's going to have ample opportunity to prove it with the Bears this season. Fourth, regardless of Marshall's familiarity with Cutler, this is a new team, and there will still be a learning curve. And fifth and finally, Marshall has dropped 35 passes over the past three seasons, including a number of would-be touchdowns. A new team won't necessarily change that.
Randy Moss (FFT ADP: 140): Moss at 140? Are you kidding me? Listen, I do understand that his quarterback, Alex Smith, doesn't have the biggest arm or the highest ark of any passer in the league, which may diminish Moss' fantasy value, but I'm not entirely buying it. Yes, Smith has had just two 300-yard passing games in his career, and the appearance of Moss on the roster isn't going to magically change him into Peyton Manning and Moss's career-average 3.9 yards after catch means he gets deep and then gets the ball, which puts pressure on Smith. However, ultimately, I think Smith can get Moss the ball, regularly, and as a result, Moss is going to Moss all over the place, like we all know he can. I'm not concerned at all about his quarterback, nor his age.
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