New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers, 8:30 p.m. ET
Hopefully you have at least one or two players going in Thursday's opener at Lambeau Field. Oddsmakers set the total at 47, the highest total on the board in Week 1.
These were PFF's second- and third-ranked passing attacks last season. Green Bay (+77.1) welcomes back a healthy Jermichael Finley, and there's not a single offensive contributor with an injury concern right now.
New Orleans (+75.4) upgraded with Darren Sproles replacing non-factor Reggie Bush. Watching Drew Brees in preseason made it seem like 2009 all over again.
So we don’t need to tell you to start Aaron Rodgers, Brees, Greg Jennings, Marques Colston or the NFL’s most freakishly athletic tight ends: Finley and Jimmy Graham. They’re automatic starters if healthy.
But what about Lance Moore, Robert Meachem, Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram, Ryan Grant and James Starks? Are they worth a play?
Moore would've been a must-start, but he's out with an injury. The Saints gave him a $20 million contract in July. He played 85 percent of first-team snaps in the first two preseason games before straining a groin.
Moore could put up WR2 numbers in PPR leagues if he plays a full season. PFF data shows Moore averaged .33 fantasy points per snap last year, better than Jennings’ .31.
PFF fantasy editor Mike Clay projects Moore to finish 31st among wideouts in PPR. And that’s with 93 targets, a number he could easily exceed if Colston goes down.
Meachem is a gamble, but worth a start with Moore out this week.
Thomas is a sneaky flex play in PPR leagues, despite the presence of Ingram and third-down back Darren Sproles.
Anyone who saw Thomas in preseason noticed he had his terrific burst back. Beat writers predict coach Sean Payton will divide carries evenly between Thomas and Ingram. Thomas will get more catches, Ingram more goal-line touches. In what figures to be a shootout, both backs are fine flex plays.
Keep Grant and Starks benched until we see if coach Mike McCarthy really is committed to running the ball this season, and who will get more touches. Green Bay ranked 20th with 421 rushing attempts last year.
And while the Saints will be without their best pass rusher (suspended DE Will Smith), they will be tougher to run against thanks to the additions of DL Shaun Rogers and NT Aubrayo Franklin, PFF’s No. 2 run-stopping interior lineman last year (+24.3 ). Franklin sprained his MCL in preseason but returned to practice last week and should be good to go.
If you drafted the Green Bay D/ST as a top-five unit, which they are, you're probably playing them. Just don't expect great production. The 2011 Saints look like they'll be far more balanced, meaning Brees will be less susceptible to sacks and interceptions.
Brees threw a career-high 22 picks last year on a career-high 658 attempts. Both numbers are coming down this year.
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