The IDP Breakdown is a weekly feature column that goes game by game and looks at all of the key matchups to help you identify big value plays, some not-so-obvious starts, and players to avoid. Analysis is based in part on Jeff Ratcliffe's weekly projections for the defensive linemen, linebackers, and defensive backs.
Arizona @ Philadelphia
Daryl Washington put together a monster effort last week against the Rams, where he graded out at +6.2 overall. That was far and away the highest grade posted by an ILB for the week. He recorded nine solos, two tackles for a loss, and two passes defensed in 81 snaps. This is a fantastic matchup for Washington, as the Eagles give up the sixth most fantasy points per game to opposing LBs. Washington is an obvious LB1 in tackle heavy leagues, but he also gives you enough upside to be a low-end LB1 in big play scoring formats. While he hasn’t posted the fantasy numbers that we saw from him in the past, Adrian Wilson (+5.8) is another interesting play this week. Wilson’s lack for statistical production isn’t necessarily an indicator of a decline in play, as he currently grades out as the fourth highest rated safety overall. Philadelphia has given up big fantasy weeks to opposing safeties nearly every week this season, so look for Wilson to have a good fantasy day. He makes a nice DB2 option this week.
Both Jamar Chaney and Kurt Coleman posted eleven solos for the Eagles this past Monday night against the Bears. Chaney is the every down LB for the Eagles, and has LB2 value every week regardless of matchup. Coleman, on the other hand, has been much more difficult to predict. Since returning to the starting lineup, he’s posted huge games last week and against the Redskins in Week 6. At the same time, he gave owners a one solo tackle effort in Week 8 against the Cowboys. To make matters cloudier, Nate Allen sustained a concussion that will likely keep him out this weekend. In his place, rookie Jaiquawn Jarrett will get the start. There was a lot of talk about Jarrett in the preseason. He’s a thumper out of Temple, who drew comparisons to former Eagle, Brian Dawkins. Juan Castillo has been using his safeties in a very fluid way where both guys with shift from FS to SS throughout the game. We should likely see more of the same this week, but due to the unpredictability of the Eagles safeties from a fantasy standpoint, neither player should be counted on as anything more than a DB3. Trent Cole and Jason Babin were shut out last week by the improved Chicago offensive line. Don’t overreact to this result. Both players have a great matchup against an Arizona offensive line that currently rates 32nd in offensive pass blocking efficiency. Both are DL1 starts in all formats.
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati
James Harrison returned to the Steelers last weekend, and did not skip a beat. He was all over the field and seemed to be involved in every play. In total, he converted three of his nine QB interruptions for sacks and recorded five solos. This is an excellent sign moving forward, and we can safely return Harrison to our starting lineups. With Harrison back in an every down role for the Steelers, I expected that we would see a revival of Lawrence Timmons’ fantasy value. While he graded out at a solid +1.5 last week, Timmons did not get the nickel snaps. Instead, it was Larry Foote in those sub-packages. This is obviously cause for concern if you’re a Timmons owner. I wouldn’t dump him just yet in redraft leagues, but it may be time to move on if we see a similar pattern this week. That being said, he’s certainly still a hold in dynasty leagues.
Carlos Dunlap has been on an absolute tear over the last two weeks. During that span he’s racked up 15 QB interruptions and converted three of them for sacks. In Week 8 against the Seahawks, he graded out at an astounding +11.7. Looking back to last season, Dunlap made a similar late season push, recording ten sacks in the last eight games of the season. If he was somehow dropped in your league, grab him ASAP. He’s now an every week DL2, with DL1 upside in big play leagues. Thomas Howard got back into an every down role for the Bengals last week, and notched six solos in the process. He’s a decent flex LB3/option in deep leagues. We still have to wait and see if Rey Maualuga will return to the starting lineup. He was limited in practice this week, so even he does give it a go, he should probably be kept on your bench.
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis
The Colts continue to be one of the worst matchups for opposing IDPs, and currently yield the least fantasy points per game to opposing defenses. That’s bad news if you own any piece of this Jacksonville defense. This week, I’m sitting Dawan Landry and Daryl Smith. I think you can play Paul Posluszny, but don’t expect anything more than low-end LB2 production out of him. Perhaps the only Jaguar IDP with any upside in this one is Jeremy Mincy, who had a very nice game against the Ravens two weeks ago. Regardless of who is in at QB for the Colts, the Jaguars will be able to generate pressure in passing situations. Mincy has consistently been the Jacksonville defensive linemen to see the most snaps, so he’s the best bet to record a sack. That said, with no teams on bye, there are likely plenty of better options for you at DL.
Antoine Bethea has recorded seven or more solos in four of his last five games. While Jacksonville hasn’t been extremely kind to opposing DBs, he still warrants a start, and should be used as a DB1 moving forward. Jacksonville has been a fairly good matchup for opposing LBs this season. After a hot start, Pat Angerer has strung together four straight games where he’s recorded six or fewer solos. At the same time, Philip Wheeler has really emerged. He’s not getting an every down role, but Wheeler is getting plenty of opportunity to play, and he’s making the most of these opportunities. He’s a great player to stash for depth, and could even be considered this week as an LB3 option in deeper leagues. Two great options this week from the Colts are the DE tandem of Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney. Thanks in part to Blaine Gabbert’s propensity to hold onto the ball, the Jaguars currently give up the third most fantasy points per game to opposing DLs. Mathis makes a solid DL1, and Freeney a nice DL2 play.
Denver @ Kansas City
The Chiefs have been a middle of the road matchup for both defensive linemen and linebackers this season. While Elvis Dumervil finally delivered two sacks last week, I’m still hesitant to play him this week. A defensive lineman has sacked Matt Cassel just twice in the last three weeks. I am a little more optimistic for Von Miller in this one. Cassel was sacked four times by Miami LBs last week, which also bodes well for D.J. Williams. Williams makes a high-end LB2 play in all formats, while Miller is better suited as an LB2 in big play formats. Surprisingly, DBs have faired well against the Chiefs this season. Expect Champ Bailey to blanket Dwayne Bowe all game. There’s no value in Bailey, but he will create a ripple effect that will cause the rest of the DBs to see more action. I’m not investing any stock in the Denver corners, but a player I really like is Quinton Carter. Last week, Carter racked up six solos in an every down role for the Broncos. He’s a deeper play this week, but is definitely someone to stash in dynasty leagues.
Denver will now be running a read-option offense that caters more towards Tim Tebow’s strengths. To those on the “hater” side of the fence, this is an affirmation that Tebow will be the start for likely the rest of the season. With this scheme in place, we will see a lot of what we have seen from the Tebow-led Broncos. That means a lot of running, and not much passing. That being the case, your Chief’s CBs may disappoint in this one. I would look to options besides Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr. At the same time, Derrick Johnson should flourish. Yes, he had a down game last week against the Dolphins, but this was more the product of matchup. Johnson is a high-end LB1 play this week in all formats. Another player to keep an eye on is Jon McGraw. He’s been in and out of the lineup due to injury this season, and sat out last week. Donald Washington played poor in replacement, so the Chiefs are likely looking to McGraw back out on the field. If he plays, he makes a nice DB2 play, especially in tackle heavy leagues.
Buffalo @ Dallas
People rushed out to the waiver wire to pick up Marcel Dareus after his Week 7 outburst of three sacks against the Redskins. This may have been a bit of an overreaction. Last week, he managed no QB interruptions despite playing 62 snaps in a fairly good matchup against the Jets. This week he faces a Cowboys team that yields the seventh least fantasy points to opposing DLs and should be kept on your bench. The same cannot be said for Nick Barnett. Uncertainty surrounded the former Packer as he came to the Bills as a free agent following an injury ridden 2010 season. Barnett has shown us that he still has it, recording 45 solos and two sacks through the first half of the season. Dallas gives up the fourth most fantasy points to LBs, so get Barnett in your lineup as a low-end LB1.
Sean Lee is back in practice for the Cowboys, and is sporting a club-like cast on his injured left wrist. It’s looking likely that he will in fact play this weekend, but there is tremendous debate regarding how effective he will be. We have seen other players, such as Patrick Willis, be successful playing with a cast in the past. However, this is a very touchy situation. The injury is not a simple break, so the cast is quite sizable. This will certainly limit his ability to wrap up in tackles, and will make intercepting passes quite difficult. Lee is really essential to what the Cowboys want to do on defense, so he will likely see the lion’s share of the snaps. However, we need to keep a close eye on how exactly they use him this weekend. For now, Lee is a hold if you own him. At the same time, I would look to better options this weekend.
Tennessee @ Carolina
After a pretty strong start to the season where he racked up 44 solos in the first six games, Barrett Ruud has been a disappointment for fantasy owners over the last two weeks. In that span, he has just seven solos. If that wasn’t cause for concern, he also missed practice this week with a groin injury. Keep a close eye on his status, but you may want to start planning for other options. Jason McCourty has been a huge surprise this season and is now an every week IDP starter, but another play who looks to be emerging for the Titans is Jordan Babineaux. He has 25 solos in the last three games, and has really stepped up his game in Chris Hope’s absence. This is a guy you absolutely want on your roster for the playoff push. Consider him a DB2 moving forward.
Nine different players have gotten snaps at LB for the Panthers this season due to an almost unprecedented string of injuries at the position. Thomas Williams is the latest Carolina LB lost for the season, as he was place on IR earlier this week. With Williams out, Omar Gaither will now get a chance to start on the weak side. Two weeks ago, he played 52 snaps and recorded six solos and a sack against the Vikings. While Gaither isn’t your prototypical stud LB, he now has the opportunity to be a three-down player. Sorry to all of the Dan Connor owners, but it’s just not going to happen. Any defender who is on the field that much has fantasy value, so grab Gaither if you can for the playoff stretch. This week isn’t the best matchup, but he could be plugged in as an LB3/flex in deeper leagues.
Washington @ Miami
Just when we thought we were in the clear, LaRon Landry is on the injury list due to soreness in the same left Achilles that sidelined him for half of last season. Monitor this situation going in to the weekend, and be prepared to adjust your lineup accordingly. Miami has given up six sacks to OLBs in the last four weeks, so expect nice days from both Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan. Both players make solid LB2s in big play formats. London Fletcher has seemingly found the fountain of youth and now has 27 solos over the last three games. This matchup was not kind to Derrick Johnson last week, however, so I wouldn’t expect a continuation of this production from Fletcher. That said, he’s still worthy of a start in all formats.
Speaking of LBs who have been on a tear over the last three weeks, Karlos Dansby and Kevin Burnett enter this game having recorded a combined 47 solo tackles during that span. Burnett also showed us last week that he’s not a one-dimensional scorer with his two sacks of Matt Cassel. While the Washington offense has been anything but consistent this season, both players are must starts until we see any significant regression. Hopefully that’s not what we are seeing from Yeremiah Bell. The Dolphins strong safety has had back-to-back games with five solo tackles. While you could certainly do a lot worse, you would also expect a little more from someone you likely drafted to be your DB1. For now, he’s still a low-end DB1, but keep an eye on this moving forward.
St. Louis @ Cleveland
We don’t typically think of the Browns as a good matchup for our DBs, but this season they have been just that. Through the first half of the season, Cleveland yields the eight most fantasy points to defensive backs and safeties. What’s even more interesting is how opposing teams have used their DBs against the Colt McCoy. Only Michael Vick has been interrupted more by DBs this season. Look for this trend to continue this weekend from the Rams. Both Darian Stewart and Quintin Mikell make good plays in this one. Of the two, Mikell has more interruptions and is the only one to record a sack on the season, so he will give you big play upside in sack heavy leagues. Stewart also has big play ability, though I doubt we see a sack out of him. Regardless, both are high-end DB2 plays.
D’Qwell Jackson is putting together an IDP MVP season for the Browns. He’s also playing darn good. Jackson currently grades out at +12.9 overall, which ranks him as the seventh highest rated ILB here at PFF. His abilities to shed blockers and attack his gaps are at an elite level right now, and so is his fantasy production. He’s an every week LB1, and might be the top LB this week due to the matchup. Look for the Rams to pound Steven Jackson, giving D’Qwell Jackson plenty of tackling opportunities. Someone who likely won’t have any tackling opportunities this weekend is T.J. Ward. It’s been a lackluster season for the preseason DB1 pick. The emergence of Jackson coupled with injuries have really hurt his fantasy stock. This week, he’s sporting a cast on his foot, and it’s looking almost certain he won’t go. If he sits, the Brown will likely call on Eric Hagg to start in his place. There’s no fantasy value there, and it’s best to find other options at DB.
New Orleans @ Atlanta
Jonathan Vilma’s lingering knee issue kept him on the sidelines last weekend, and JoLonn Dunbar started in his place. Dunbar didn’t wow you, but he had a solid five solos. More importantly, he played all of the Saints 67 snaps. With the Saints bye looming in Week 11, it’s looking likely that Vilma will again sit out. As an every down player, Dunbar has very real fantasy value this weekend. If you’re hurting at the position, Dunbar is a nice plug and play LB3. Roman Harper recorded another sack last week, and now has six on the season. Add that to his 44 solos, and you have yourself a rock solid DB1. Another Saint to keep your eye on is rookie DE Cameron Jordan. He’s really starting to play a more prominent role in the Saints pass rush, and last week graded out at +4.0 against the Buccaneers. While he hasn’t recorded a sack on the season, I expect that to soon change. Stash him in your dynasty leagues.
The Colts have been an absolutely dreadful fantasy matchup for opposing IDPs this season, and yet Curtis Lofton and Sean Weatherspoon still managed to have good fantasy days against them. Lofton racked up eight solos and a tackle for a loss, while Weatherspoon had six solos, two passes defensed, and a tackle for a loss. The Falcons have something very special here in these two, and so do fantasy owners. This is a great matchup for both players, as New Orleans has given up the most tackles to opposing LBs this season. Both make solid LB1 plays in tackle heavy formats. William Moore is expected to miss this weekend’s game, which is a shame for fantasy owners. The Saints currently yield the most fantasy points per game to opposing DBs. Look for a good day from Brent Grimes and Thomas DeCoud. Another deeper player to watch for in this one is Kelvin Hayden. Cut by the Colts this season, Hayden is now the slot CB for the Falcons. Last week, he racked up six solos in just 28 snaps. I expect him to be on the field more against the Saints, and should see plenty of action from Drew Brees. He makes a very sneaky DB3 play.
Houston @ Tampa Bay
Brooks Reed continues to shine since replacing the injured Mario Williams. Last week, Reed has five QB interruptions and converted two for sacks. He now has four sacks in his last three games. Josh Freeman isn’t exactly sack-prone, but back in Week 5 another rookie OLB, Aldon Smith, sacked him twice. The one downfall to Reed from an IDP standpoint is that he won’t get you many tackles. Shy away from him in tackle heavy leagues, but get him in your lineup as an LB3 with upside in big play leagues. This is also a very good matchup for Brian Cushing. Tampa Bay gives up the ninth most fantasy points per game to opposing LBs, so Cushing makes a good LB2 in all formats.
Anyone who started Geno Hayes last week, got a rude awakening when it was revealed right before game time that Hayes was benched. Quincy Black moved over to the weak side to replace Hayes, and Adam Heyward got the start on the strong side. The LB situation in Tampa Bay has been a confusing one this season. Black had been removed from his nickel duties earlier in the season, but now appears to have them back. What this does do for us as fantasy owners is give us a very clear picture of Mason Foster’s outlook. This move suggests that Raheem Morris is very confident in his rookie LB. Last week, Foster returned from injury to an every down role. While his performance graded out poor, he did rack up eight solos. Moving forward, Foster can be considered an every week LB2 with LB1 upside based on the matchup. This week’s matchup gives him that upside, and I would consider Foster a low-end LB1, especially in tackle heavy leagues.
Baltimore @ Seattle
Seattle is one of those teams you just hate to see your IDPs go up against. The Seahawks are below the average in points yield to each of the three defensive levels. The lowest is against LBs, where they yield the sixth least fantasy points. While you can never bench Ray Lewis, it’s tough to count on him for LB1 production in this one. Seattle has also given up the ninth least solo tackles to opposing DBs. Bernard Pollard has come on strong recently, but fantasy owners may be wise to look elsewhere this week. The same applies to Lardarius Webb and Ed Reed. Perhaps the only decent matchup for Ravens IDPs is on the defensive line. While the Seahawks do sit below the average, they have yielded 17 sacks this season. Terrell Suggs is an obvious DL1, but Haloti Ngata also should be considered a solid play. The Seattle offensive line has been particularly vulnerable to defensive tackles this season, so Ngata makes a low-end DL1.
While Seattle has been a poor matchup for LBs, the Ravens have been exactly the opposite. Only St. Louis and San Diego have given up more fantasy points to LBs this season. That’s music to your ears if you’re a David Hawthorne owner. Since the Seahawks bye in Week 6, Hawthorne has 23 solos and a sack, not to mention that he’s played every Seattle defensive snap in the process. Look for a big day from Hawthorne. He’s an LB1 play, especially in tackle heavy leagues. Another Seattle defender who has been pouring it on since the bye is Earl Thomas. Thomas has equaled Hawthorne’s solo total in that span and has moved into a DB2+ role for fantasy owners.
Detroit @ Chicago
Detroit returns from bye to face the Bears on Sunday. In this group of extremely talented defenders, it’s surprising that the fantasy MVP so far has been Chris Houston. Through the first eight games, Houston has racked up 38 solos, 10 passes defensed, four interceptions, two tackles for a loss, and two touchdowns. That’s monster productivity. If he’s somehow still on your waiver wire, run out and grab him. He’s a borderline DB1 play this week in all formats, but I particularly like him in big play formats. Another deeper play to consider this week is Lawrence Jackson. While not the starter, Jackson sees plenty of snaps on passing downs, and is coming off of a two-sack performance against Denver. He’s not someone for shallow leagues, but is definitely a guy to consider as a DL3 in deeper leagues.
Brian Urlacher came up big for the Bears, recording 11 solos on Monday night against the Eagles. The Lions haven’t been as fantasy friendly to opposing LBs this season, so I would not expect a repeat performance. That said, Urlacher is still a low-end LB1 play. In part, LB production against Detroit has been impact by their lack of a power running game. As a result, the Lions typically turn to the air early and often. As a result, expect to see a lot of Charles Tillman in this one. I’m not really trusting any other Bears IDPs, with the obvious exception of Julius Peppers.
New York Giants @ San Francisco
As expected, the Giants safety tandem of Antrelle Rolle and Kenny Phillips had solid fantasy days last week against the Patriots. This week, we should see the exact opposite, as they face a 49ers team that has given up the least fantasy points per game to opposing DBs. I would not want to rely on either player this week. At the same time, I would want to rely on the Giants defensive linemen. Here, San Francisco gives up the fourth most points. You’re starting Jason Pierre-Paul, Osi Umenyiora, and Justin Tuck. You also want to get Mathias Kiwanuka in your lineup. Kiwanuka has the benefit of playing the SLB position in running situations, then sliding down to an edge rusher on passing downs. It’s the best of both worlds from a fantasy standpoint.
Navorro Bowman and Patrick Willis continued their torrid pace last week against the Redskins. The two have now combined for an eye-popping 115 solos this season. Needless to say, both are every week LB1 plays. Interestingly, Donte Whitner posted six solos last week. This marks the first time this season he’s had more than five. Though I’m still not sold on him having fantasy value, this is definitely something to keep an eye on as we move closer to the fantasy playoffs. While Justin Smith is an absolute stud on their field, his play doesn’t always translate into fantasy value. The simple fact is that 3-4 DEs often get undervalued in most scoring systems. This week, however, Smith makes a great start regardless of the system. The Giants give up the sixth most fantasy points to DEs, and I expect to see Smith in Eli Manning’s face all day. He makes a rock solid DL1 play in all formats.
New England @ New York Jets
Just as we finally saw Brandon Spikes solidify his spot in the Patriots nickel package, he sprained his MCL. Keep a close eye on this one, though I doubt we see him play this weekend. This does mean a boost for Jerod Mayo, who played every down last week against the Giants. Mayo still didn’t look as explosive as we have seen him in the past, but he did appear to be moving better than he had in Week 8. For now, consider Mayo an LB2 option. Andre Carter failed to record a sack last week despite racking up eight QB interruptions. He’s playing at an extremely high level right now, and is seeing the field on over 80% of the snaps in each of the last three games. Don’t be overly concerned with last week and keep Carter in your lineup as a DL2.
There hasn’t been much to like out of this Jets defensive unit from an IDP standpoint. However, this week the DBs do get a very good matchup against a Patriots team that currently yields the third most fantasy points per game to safeties and corners. I’m not a huge fan of ever playing Darrelle Revis, but this just may be the week to do so. Tom Brady has thrown five picks in his last four games, and Revis has shown us nice big play ability this season. He makes an interesting DB2 play in big play formats. Eric Smith is another player to take a look at. Safeties have flourished all season against New England. With Smith being the best tackling safety on the Jets, he should reap the benefits of this matchup. Get him in your lineup as a DB2 in balanced and tackle heavy leagues.
Minnesota @ Green Bay
After coming out of the gates on fire, Antoine Winfield has missed the last four games with a neck injury. With the Vikings returning from bye, it’s looking almost certain that Winfield will return to the lineup. With the Chris Cook situation still unfolding, Minnesota really needs him back. And what a great week it is for Winfield to come back. Not only is this a classic divisional rivalry, but he also faces a high-powered offense that’s sure to provide plenty of opportunities to score fantasy points. If he plays, Winfield is a DB1.
We’ve seen a changing of the guard of sorts over the last few weeks at safety for the Packers. After Nick Collins went down in Week 2, Charlie Peprah was moved into the starting lineup opposite Morgan Burnett. Initially, the Packers played both as free safeties, but Peprah began to be used more as a strong safety starting in Week 4. Since then, Peprah has been out producing Burnett from a fantasy standpoint. In that span, Peprah has 21 solos while Burnett has just 15. Add to this Peprah’s three picks (including the one for a score last week), three passes defensed, and a tackle for a loss, and we have ourselves DB1 production. At the same time, Burnett has managed just one pass defensed and one forced fumbles. The scales have decidedly tipped towards Peprah. He should be considered a DB2/DB1 moving forward, while Burnett is now more of a DB3 option.
All the teams are playing this week, so it should be a great afternoon of football. Enjoy the games, and best of luck. If you have any questions, comments, or just want to talk football, feel free to hit me up on Twitter – @JeffRatcliffe.
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