Last week I told you how auction drafting was akin to craft beer; we then got into the basics as I laid out a primer for those who are thinking about it or just delving into auction drafting. I hope that was helpful, but there is much more to it than that. This week, I would like to present you with an in-depth look at how I view and strategize for auction drafts. These tips come largely from experience and a little advice from others. I hope you find them handy.
Practice Makes… Better
Ah, the old, flawed adage that says “practice makes perfect”. While certainly not true in auction drafting – you can practice as many drafts as you would like, no two auction drafts are the same – you can hone your drafting discipline and create some expectations for the real deal. If you notice that wide receiver prices are trending up, you might want to revise your pre-draft values at the position. If one of your sleepers experiences a spike in cost, then you know he is no longer a sleeper.
More importantly than picking up on trends, though, is practicing your adaptability. The aforementioned snowflake quality of auction drafts affords you the opportunity to be flexible in your strategy implementation. That way, when you are drafting for all the marbles, you will avoid panicking when Peyton Manning, your main target at QB, goes into $30+ range when you had him capped at $28.
One infuriating thing I have found in mock drafting is the preponderance of draft deserters – those who inexplicably join a mock draft only to leave shortly after or even before it has begun. Drafting against bots – or as I would like to think of them, the disembodied souls of fantasy losers programmed to lull you into a false sense of security – serves a function, but is nowhere near as effective as drafting against other humans. Going into your real draft feeling good about yourself for out-drafting a bunch of bots in practice is a sure way to find yourself in panic mode before you can say Marques Tuiasosopo. Try timing it so that you join nearly-full rooms just before the drafts start; if you see folks flaking out on the mock draft, it is better to move on and try again.
Stay Disciplined
Part of practicing is sharpening your discipline. I know we are talking about fake football here, but it takes a lot of guts to let a player go that you really like, especially under pressure from a rapidly disappearing timer and a hostile environment. Invariably, there will be a few situations where a targeted player has been priced out of your budget. Paying $32 for a player you maxed out at $27 seems innocuous enough, but that can come back to haunt you later in the draft, especially if you allow it to happen on multiple draft picks. I am not advocating a hard cap for every player – as you will see, no two drafts are the same, so you must be prepared to spend more on a player if you really want him – but stick to your guns and adjust your budget elsewhere if you do bend your budget.
Being disciplined also means having a good poker game. While being utterly stoic for the entire draft would drain the fun out of it, do not give your opponents insight into your strategy. Good poker players know how to have fun and play things close to their vest, thus you should attempt to draft similarly. Other owners will likely take jabs at your perceived strategy, gloat about paying half price for a player they wanted, or say whatever else to unnerve you. If you lose out on a few targeted players, do not let your frustration show. Likewise, if you bag one at a good price, try not to gloat too much. Of course, if you are drafting from a remote location behind a computer screen, then all you have to do is close or ignore your chat box. Naturally, though, drafts are always more fun in person.
Be Cold-Blooded
A good friend of mine is a die-hard Redskins fan. As such, he has one irrevocable policy when it comes to fantasy football: never own a Dallas Cowboy. As a Dolphins fan myself, I can relate to that when it comes to Jets or Patriots players, and there is nothing wrong with that in principle. In reality, though, you are only shooting yourself in the foot if you play fantasy football with your heart (your gut is something else entirely). Always draft with your head.
Never cross players off your list because you do not like them. I learned that the hard way with Thomas Jones over the years – I ignored fantasy advice and put him in my “do not draft” list for no good reason; I had no particular reason to dislike him, I just did not like him as a fantasy player – when I could have drafted him cheaply and been all the better for it. Even if you passionately hate a player or team, check your hatred at the door. Better to have drafted him and won than winning nothing at all.
Don’t Need a Player? Don’t Bid on Him!
In reality, there are players that we all think are overvalued for a variety of reasons. There are also players who would superfluous on our teams for a variety of reasons. Back when I was relatively new at this, I found myself stuck with Reggie Bush for two seasons in a row even though I did not want or need him. Why? Because I stupidly bid on him in attempts to raise his price.
The rule of thumb here is that you should never put a bid of any amount of money for a player that you do not need or want on your roster. This is especially true if you have filled a position; if you find yourself tempted to drive up the price on a position you do not need, find a way to distract yourself when that position gets nominated. This is a throwback to the discipline advice (see above); even if another owner is getting a steal of a deal, it is not worth the money or roster spot for you to bid on a superfluous player. The last thing you need is three quarterbacks on your roster to start your fantasy season.
Study Game Film
Am I proposing that you go through the games and chart each player? No, that would be ludicrous. Luckily for you, we here at Pro Football Focus have already done that for you. What I am proposing is that you take the time to get to know your enemy. Chances are this is not your first draft against the other owners in your league(s). Aboard that train of thought, you should likely have some notion of how your fellow draftmates will act in the draft.
If you have not already, and the information is available to you, go back and look at the draft. You will likely get a nice snapshot of each owner’s basic strategy. Try to remember their tendencies, perhaps jotting down notes on each owner. Going forward, make mental or physical notes on or shortly after draft day, that way you can build a database on each owner. Knowing one of your opponents has an affinity for drafting New York Giants or that 75% of the owners employ the Studs & Duds strategy is an intangible advantage going into your draft.
Along those lines, it also helps to know owner tendencies throughout the fantasy season. If you are in a league that is largely reticent to trade, then you might want to mold your draft strategy to try to avoid trade situations. If the league is trigger-happy on the waiver wire, it might be difficult to replenish or overhaul your roster in a Studs & Duds scenario. All these nuances add up and could make the difference between fantasy victory and defeat.
Quick Hits
Here are some other tips that were too short for their own sections:
- Draft sober: while it might be fun to be draft while drinking some of those craft draughts with some friends, even one drink can ruin a pick or two. Be wary of the commissioner who hosts a draft with an open bar. After all, if discipline is key, why loosen your inhibitions?
- Draft rested: much like my policy on big exams, rest up before you draft. There is little use practicing on the day of the draft or pulling an all-nighter trying to finish preparing; better to have slept on it and come to the draft fresh.
- Avoid clutter: as well-prepared you will be for your draft after reading this and creating all sorts of spreadsheets, be careful not to overburden yourself with paperwork; especially with online interfaces, having too many things to keep track of will eventually fluster you. In the end, keep it simple.
- The $1 players: you should know by now that kickers and defenses are not worth higher draft picks, so why would it be any different in auction drafts? Drafting either for more than $1 is ludicrous, though more so for kickers than for the select few elite defenses. If you have some extra scratch toward the end of a draft, feel free to spend it on the Pittsburgh Steelers if they happen to be around. Other than that, save your money. On the flip side, nominating the highly touted defenses early will likely cause other owners to overpay for them.
Questions and comments are always welcome via Twitter – @PFF_Alex
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