On November 3rd, I posted an article called ‘The wonderful world of regression‘. In the piece, I studied touchdown rates of all NFL offensive players. From there, I picked out TD rates that were usually high and low and predicted that they'd regress going forward. The NFL regular season is far from over, but one month in, the results are almost perfect. A whopping 21 of the 22 (95%) predictions made have come true. The results are in the chart below, but be sure to check out the original article for analysis of each player.
| Player | Stat | Then | Expected | Now |
| Michael Turner | Car | 2.3% | 4.0% | 3.1% |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | Pass | 6.8% | 3.8% | 5.8% |
| Lee Evans | Rec | 15.4% | 10.0% | 11.8% |
| Steve Johnson | Rec | 20.0% | 10.0% | 15.3% |
| Matt Forte | Tou | 5.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% |
| Felix Jones | Tou | 0.0% | 3.4% | 0.7% |
| Miles Austin | Rec | 4.7% | 8.0% | 9.6% |
| Roy Williams | Rec | 22.7% | 14.0% | 15.6% |
| David Garrard | Pass | 8.7% | 4.3% | 6.8% |
| Marcedes Lewis | Rec | 28.0% | 14.0% | 21.1% |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | Car | 0.6% | 3.0% | 1.7% |
| Dwayne Bowe | Rec | 28.6% | 12.0% | 24.1% |
| Jamaal Charles | Tou | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.1% |
| Thomas Jones | Tou | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% |
| Ronnie Brown | Car | 1.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% |
| Ricky Williams | Car | 1.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% |
| Brandon Marshall | Rec | 2.1% | 8.0% | 1.7% |
| Aaron Hernandez | Rec | 0.0% | 6.0% | 8.3% |
| Jeremy Maclin | Rec | 20.0% | 12.0% | 15.7% |
| Antonio Gates | Rec | 22.5% | 14.0% | 20.5% |
| Kellen Winslow | Rec | 0.0% | 8.0% | 4.3% |
| Vince Young | Pass | 7.4% | 4.7% | 6.4% |
As you can see, the only player who has failed to regress is Brandon Marshall, who has struggled to score touchdowns in a porous Miami Dolphins offense. Still, the season has yet to conclude, which there is still time for Marshall to bounce back. Check back after the season for a full recap and analysis of the original regression piece.
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