Maybe it’s my old age, but I’m starting to get a soft spot for tight ends. Years ago, the position was littered with below average options once the studs came off the board. Nowadays, it seems like the position is getting deeper and deeper every season. You can afford to sit back and have a quality tight end fall to you. As you’ll see, even rookies are options.
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Click the link below to the Excel report.
>>> Rookie TE Production <<<
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Percentages for a 16 team league, starting 1 TE
“Starters” were players ranked in the Top 16 at the end of the season.
“Backups” were players worthy of contributing to your fantasy team in a limited capacity.
“Rosterable” were players worthy of belonging on a fantasy roster.
“Minimal Contribution” were players on waivers who could be useful in case of emergencies (ex: injuries, byes, poor match-up).
“No Contribution” were players who could be found on waivers..
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Rookie Production, 2010: 19 Tight Ends
11% chance of drafting a starter (2 players)
16% chance of drafting a backup (3 players)
16% chance of minimal contribution in rookie season (3 players)
58% chance of no contribution in rookie season (11 players).
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Rookie Production, 2006 – 2010: 82 Tight Ends
7% chance of drafting a starter (6 players)
10% chance of drafting a backup (8 players)
17% chance of minimal contribution in rookie season (14 players)
66% chance of no contribution in rookie season (54 players).
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Tight Ends drafted in the first round, 2006 – 2010: 6
17% chance of drafting a starter (1 player)
67% chance of drafting a backup (4 players)
17% chance of minimal contribution in rookie season (1 player)
0% chance of no contribution in rookie season (0 players).
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Tight Ends drafted in the second and third rounds, 2006 – 2010: 22
14% chance of drafting a starter (3 players)
18% chance of drafting a backup (4 players)
23% chance of minimal contribution in rookie season (5 players)
45% chance of no contribution in rookie season (10 players).
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Tight Ends drafted after the third round, 2006 – 2010: 54
43% chance of drafting a starter (2 players)
0% chance of drafting a backup (0 players)
15% chance of minimal contribution in rookie season (8 players)
81% chance of no contribution in rookie season (44 players)
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Quick hits:
First round rookie tight ends are a very safe investment. They may not be fantasy starters right away, but they are useful for depth purposes.
The 2010 tight end class was the most productive over the past five seasons. Like rookie receivers, the increased focus in the passing attack around the NFL is leading to extra opportunities for the young tight ends.
Fred Davis and Jared Cook were highly regarded “name” tight ends who lacked meaningful stats in their rookie year. While Davis continues to be blocked by Chris Cooley, Cook has a solid chance to grab hold of primary playing time for the Titans.
John Carlson and Martellus Bennett were two tight ends who were unable to capitalize off their rookie year. Carlson was forced to pass block due to the Seahawks offensive line woes, and the Cowboys have stud TE Jason Witten.
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Rookie Production, 2010, ProFootballFocus Premium Stats Highlights:
“The goal of our detailed grading process is to gauge how players execute their roles over the course of a game by looking at the performance of each individual on each play.” Click here for more on the grading process.
Rob Gronkowski NEP: 16 GP, 57 Targets (ranked #23), 794 snaps (ranked #19), 7 “plus” games, 7 “even” games, 2 “minus” games, 5th rated TE by PFF.
Aaron Hernandez NEP: 14 GP, 64 Targets (ranked #18), 491 snaps (ranked #40), 3 “plus” games, 9 “even” games, 2 “minus” games, 13th rated TE by PFF.
The good news is that the Patriots somehow managed to have two tight ends rank in the Top 16 by the end of the year. The bad news is guessing which of the two would be featured on a given week. There were only two weeks during the season in which both were good fantasy options (Weeks 3 and 7).
Tony Moeaki KCC: 15 GP, 65 Targets (ranked #17), 929 snaps (ranked #10), 7 “plus” games, 6 “even” games, 2 “minus” games, 6th rated TE by PFF.
Jimmy Graham NOS: 15 GP, 42 Targets (ranked #35), 235 snaps (ranked #68), 5 “plus” games, 8 “even” games, 2 “minus” games, 16th rated TE by PFF.
Selected two picks apart in the draft, both ended the season as worthy fantasy contributors. The big difference is that Graham produced his stats in a quarter of the snaps. He came alive once he stepped in for an injured Jeremy Shockey, finishing the year strong. Four of Graham’s final five games were “plus” rated. Graham is the desired target according to the ADP, so you're going to pay a steep draft pick to get him. If you prefer waiting for tight ends, you can land Moeaki at a good price.
Jermaine Gresham CIN: 15 GP, 76 Targets (ranked #12), 821 snaps (ranked #17), 2 “plus” games, 6 “even” games, 7 “minus” games, 102nd rated TE by PFF.
Gresham’s PFF ranks struggled across the board. He was below average in every category except pass blocking, and for fantasy purposes, it’s the least important. Fortunately, for fantasy owners, the former first rounder has little competition for playing time and he will take his lumps learning on the job.
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Tight Ends drafted in 2011: 12 (player, team, round drafted)
Kyle Rudolph MIN (2), Lance Kendricks STL (2), Robert Housler ARI (3), Jordan Cameron CLE (4), Luke Stocker TBB (4), Julius Thomas DEN (4), D.J. Williams GBP (5), Lee Smith NEP (5), Richard Gordon OAK (6), Virgil Green DEN (7), Ryan Taylor GBP (7), Daniel Hardy TBB (7)
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For the first time since 1999, no tight end was selected in the first round. The highest tight ends drafted that year: Reggie Kelly ATL (2.11) and Jim Kleinsasser MIN (2.13). Since there is no 2011 first round TE, we have to dig into the next tier. Second and third round rookies were ranked together due to their similar results. The percentages lean towards one of the three players to make an impact in their rookie season. Kyle Rudolph is the biggest and Robert Housler was the fastest at the combine. However, if all three are available, lean towards the Rams’ Lance Kendricks. All three are considered athletic tight ends, but Kendricks has the best combination of external sources of success: the best quarterback and little TE depth. Rudolph has Visanthe Shiancoe at TE and rookie Christian Ponder, Joe Webb, or an unknown veteran at quarterback. Housler should get ample snaps in Arizona, but until Kevin Kolb rides into town, the Cardinals’ quarterback situation is poor. Last season’s fifth round pick Mike Hoomanawanui played well for the Rams in his rookie season, but the Rams drafted Kendricks as a more explosive receiving option. Plus, Kendricks has the best quarterback of the three in Sam Bradford.
As for the players selected after the third round, you should only pay attention if you’re in dynasty leagues. The percentages say one, maybe two will have meaningful stats in his rookie season. You have other positions to fill, rather than wasting a redraft roster spot with a developmental tight end.
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Other articles in the Rookie Production series:
Rookie Wide Receiver Production
Rookie Defensive Linemen Production
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