Continuing to deliver on the promise of a blitzkrieg approach to free agency, the Eagles landed Ronnie Brown on Tuesday. The fantasy community emitted a collective yawn, so I was surprised to discover Brown’s ADP hovers around 140. Landing in Philadelphia is something of a best case scenario for Brown, and yet selecting him in the top 12 rounds defines irrational exuberance. The former Dolphin finished as RB26 in PPR leagues last season, which slotted him in as a flex option and bye week starter. Unfortunately, any hints of 2011 upside are a mirage. Brown's recent statistics portend a swift and ugly decline. With the exception of Thomas Jones, you have to go back to John Riggins to find a RB with a similar profile who wasn't completely done.
The 2nd overall pick from the 2005 draft struggled badly a year ago. With a yards per carry average of 3.7, it’s no surprise he posted a negative PFF run rating. The Dolphins were a train wreck on offense, but Brown doesn’t come out looking good in the apples-to-apples comparison with Ricky Williams. Williams averaged a half yard per carry more and didn’t log quite as bad a run rating. Brown caught 33 passes last year but did it to little fanfare. His PFF pass rating was negative as well. (Brown is an adept pass blocker, which could explain the Eagles interest.)
The fantasy story here deals more with how it might impact LeSean McCoy. In 2010 McCoy finished as RB3 despite carrying the ball only 207 times in the regular season. Fantasy players are discounting obvious breakout potential to the tune of a lower ADP than his final 2010 ranking. Welcome to the Jamaal Charles Effect.
Is the fear of completely irrational running back usage legitimate?
Including the playoff contest, McCoy touched the ball 18.8 times per game. During his heyday with the Eagles from 2006 to 2008, Brian Westbrook averaged 21.1, 24.5, and 20.5 touches. Westbrook was the #1 fantasy back in 2007 and scored the most ppg in 2008.
As one of the more sophisticated NFL teams, the Eagles probably had no intention of allowing McCoy much more than 20 touches in any scenario. Westbrook’s 368 touch season was a clear aberration and signaled a start to his rapid decline. On the other hand, unless Andy Reid attended – and found revelatory – Todd Haley’s offseason seminar “How Personnel Groupings Can Be Employed To Dramatically Minimize Offensive Efficiency,” Brown’s touches will almost certainly come at the expense of Dion Lewis.
Fantasy spin:
As one of the NFL's pass-heaviest teams, the Eagles could easily fail to exceed 425 rushing attempts on the season. McCoy and Vick are likely to combine for 325 carries, leaving only scraps for Ronnie Brown. He might steal goal line carries from McCoy, but he could just as easily take them from Vick. Give Brown 450 yards from scrimmage and 4 short yardage scores in the high octane offense. This signing could cap the upside of both McCoy and Vick, but drafters should view it as NFLPA approved.
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