The Bills were already preparing to make some defensive changes in 2012, notably a switch from a base 3-4 to a base 4-3 defense. The switch makes a lot of sense given personnel. Defensive tackle Marcell Dareus provided a solid rookie campaign with an overall grade of +14.8. He will be joined by fellow tackle Kyle Williams, who was hurt for the bulk of the 2011 season, a year after he was the anchor of the defense—his +44.9 overall grade in 2010 was 39 point higher than his closest defensive teammate and nearly double the closest tackle in the league. Mario Williams, who signed a $100 million contract with $50 million guaranteed with the Bills to become the highest paid defensive player in the NFL, should complement the interior size with his pass rush as a part of what is now one of the best defensive lines in football.
Williams has been a consistently effective player since he was the Texans’ first overall selection in the 2006 draft. From 2008 to 2010, he graded between a +15.0 and a +20.0 overall, the bulk of which came from his pass rush. He moved to outside linebacker in 2011, where he may have been even better. He sacked the opposing quarterback 5 times in only 225 snaps across 5 games before a torn pectoral muscle ended his season. His athleticism makes him versatile, and even though he will return to defensive end in a more traditional defense with the Bills, he can line up all over the field and make plays.
The real key to the deal will be health. While his torn muscle in 2011 hardly makes him injury prone, he and Kyle Williams are both returning from season-ending injuries, the latter for a foot injury that required surgery. And they are the keys to the defense. Chris Kelsay is expected to become the other defensive end. He will move in from linebacker from last year’s 3-4, when he turned in his first positive grade, 7.9 overall, in the last four seasons, but the Williamses will command the double teams.
In addition to the X’s and O’s, Williams’ contract is a feather in the cap of the Bills organization. He will provide real star power for a team that has struggled to find the spotlight in recent years. If he can help turn around the defense opposite an offense that was sneakily the 5th best in league, the Bills could compete for the playoffs in 2012.
Fantasy Spin:
Williams had double-digit sacks from 2008-2010 as a defensive end. He should easily manage the same as a part of the Bills line in 2012. His tackles have tailed off considerably since 2008, and I would not expect a bounce back next to a dominant run stopper like Kyle Williams. Still, Mario Williams is an elite option at defensive end in fantasy because of his consistency, especially in a scoring system that discounts the value of tackles and rewards big plays like forced turnovers and stops for loss. He is firmly inside the top 10 at his position.
Our IDP Director Jeff Ratcliffe (@JeffRatcliffe) points out that the addition of Williams could have a nice effect on the fantasy value of Marcell Dareus, who with the help around him has the potential to jump into the elite tier of defensive tackle. Dareus was tied for 4th among tackles with 6 sacks in 2011. With additional snaps and freedom in 2012, he could become a top-5 option at tackle.
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