In this article, we'll take a look at some of the 2012 Free Agents in the NFL and potential fantasy impact/landing spots. Naturally, the landing spots are all speculation for now, but we'll try to use as much logic as possible when discussing the player in question. We're focusing on top WRs and TEs in this article, and will hit RBs and QBs at a later time.
Wes Welker, WR – Again, even though he's a free agent, he's a near lock to be back with the Patriots and Tom Brady. It's likely he's more valuable to the Pats than any other team in the league, and you can bet that given the Pats free agent situation he'll either be locked up longterm or tagged as a franchise player. He's not going anywhere and will again be a WR1 regardless of scoring format.
Marques Colston, WR – There's a bigger chance that Colston leaves the Saints than Drew Brees does, but again, that chance isn't huge. The Saints and Colston have mutual respect for each other, and based on some reports, it seems some Saints players won't ask for max value in order to stay with each other. Colston holds WR2-type value as long as he's healthy, which is always a big question mark with him. Talent isn't, though, and he should be drafted as a low-end WR2 given the risk he carries. Just know that if he somehow lands somewhere without an elite QB, he could be a story similar to Sidney Rice.
Dwayne Bowe, WR – Like Welker, Bowe is a candidate for the franchise tag. It would actually be nice if he ended up somewhere else, as he averaged nearly 1 target and 1 reception more without Matt Cassel than with him. He'd likely be the top WR wherever he landed, and Cassel isn't exactly a top-tier QB. As it stands right now, my guess is Bowe ends up back with the Chiefs, where he'll retain his value with a potential slight uptick in TDs.
Vincent Jackson, WR – A month ago I would have told you ‘V-Jax' was as good as gone. Now, I'm not so sure. He stayed out of trouble this year, played relatively well, and should be a dynamic threat for the future if Philip Rivers can start playing well again. A.J. Smith and he have both publicly stated they're both open and hope to engage in contract talks soon. It's worth nothing that inconsistency will seemingly plague Jackson, as he was very on and off this year. He started off the year with the following target counts: 3, 15, 8, 4, 5, 8. As such, if you're drafting him and he stays with San Diego, you may want to draft someone safer to surround him at your position. The same will be true even if he switches teams.
Stevie Johnson, WR – The Bills have already engaged in contract talks with Johnson, so I won't touch on him that much in terms of landing spots. What you should know is this: as Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills crashed back to Earth in the second half of the season, Johnson actually held his value fairly intact. His season's first half versus second half numbers looked like this: 8 targets, 5.25 receptions, 66.6 yards, 0.5 TDs (first half) versus 8.5 targets, 4.25 receptions, 49.1 yards, 0.38 TDs (second). The yardage numbers were skewed downwards a bit by an 8 and a 16 yard performance in Weeks 10 and 11, but the rest of his games in the second half were passable. Draft Johnson as he stands now.
Brandon Lloyd, WR – A very interesting name here, as I'm giving him a 50/50 shot of staying with the Rams. In late December, Lloyd indicated he wanted to follow Josh McDaniels wherever he went. McDaniels proceeded to scuttle off to the Patriots, and Lloyd then said he'd be open to re-signing with the Rams. This is likely because he knows he'd be competing with Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez for targets, and I think Lloyd believes he should be a focal point of an offense (speculation that is based on comments and nothing more, so take it for what it's worth). I can't see Sam Bradford being any worse than he was last year, and Jeff Fisher is a trench-type coach, which should help the Rams offense. If Lloyd lands with the Patriots, he'll be with a much better QB, but he'll likely be extremely inconsistent from week to week. The preferred fantasy landing spot is probably the Rams for Lloyd owners in this case, as he's the clear-cut number one option there as of now. Of course, that could change very easily with the offseason.
DeSean Jackson, WR – I'll actually be surprised if Jackson is back with the Eagles. He'll probably ask for premium money, and he's not worth that giving all the ‘business decisions' he made, the general whining/bellyaching, and decline in play in 2011. So who could use a deep speedster? A lot of teams frankly, but as I mentioned, he'll probably command a decent amount of money. Potential landing spots in my mind include the Redskins, Jaguars, Raiders, Bears, and Rams. The Redskins and Raiders have needs at WR and are known big spenders, although the Raiders are likely happy with what they have. The Jaguars need a player to draw ticket sales and help Blaine Gabbert. The Bears have a good QB Jackson would be fun to watch with and a need at WR. And the Rams have a need at WR if Brandon Lloyd isn't back. If I'm a Jackson owner, the ideal landing spot for him is the Bears, as Jay Cutler can certainly sling it and he'd see plenty of targets.
Reggie Wayne, WR – I highly doubt Peyton Manning will be back with the Colts, and if that's the case, rebuilding mode is on, which means some of the other elder statesmen will likely be gone as well. The likely destinations for Manning seem to be the Redskins, Jets and Dolphins. At this point in Wayne's career, he's probably better suited to be a 2nd receiving option on a team as a possession guy, which means any of those aforementioned teams could theoretically use him, though I think he'd fit best with Manning in Miami. Regardless, Wayne is no longer a WR1 consideration in any fantasy format, and a huge portion of next year's value will be derived from his QB. If it's a healthy Manning, he should retain WR3-type status in PPR leagues. Otherwise, it's too variable to say.
Other WRs with potentially new landing spots: Pierre Garcon, Robert Meachem, Mario Manningham, Braylon Edwards, Jerome Simpson, Early Doucet, Steve Smith (PHI).
Jermichael Finley, TE – The Packers are an in interesting position this offseason in that both Finley and Matt Flynn are candidates for the franchise tag. The tag would only be placed on Flynn with a guaranteed trade partner, so it's most likely that Finley stays with the Packers somehow. His drop problems are well documented: including the playoff loss, Finley had 14 drops on 99 targets, which is a ridiculous 14.1% drop rate. That rate should probably decrease, and the 99 targets signal that as long as he's with Aaron Rodgers, he'll be a TE1. I fully expect him back in a Packer uniform, but you never know.
Fred Davis, TE – On one hand, Davis is a very talented receiving TE who seems to be undervalued consistently in fantasy leagues. On the other hand, one more illegal substance charge means a yearlong suspension. I suspect the Redskins will want him back to give whatever young QB they get a receiving threat, but if the NFL starts following the Patriots and transitioning to 2 TE offenses, he could land just about anywhere. His value obviously depends on the TEs and WRs in front of him, but he should end up as a decent TE1 in terms of value unless he's behind a much better TE. If he stays in Washington, it all depends on who starts. Just know rookie QBs tend to like tight ends as safety valves more often than not.
Other TEs with potentially new landing spots: Martellus Bennett, Jacob Tamme, John Carlson, Scott Chandler, Visanthe Shiancoe
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