Throughout the 2011 season, Tyler Loechner and Alex Miglio will select Twitter questions and answer them right here at PFF Fantasy. Although you’re bound to have your questions answered almost immediately from the staff on Twitter, we will choose a handful of good questions each week and give them more in-depth answers. Here are this week's questions and answers:
Trying not to be worried about the Chiefs three- headed monster. Viewing it as good thing. More rest 4 JC. Keeps him healthy. Thoughts? – @PacingPete
Loechner – I think you are kidding yourself into believing Todd Haley actually cares about your fantasy team. He doesn’t. Not even a little. But that’s okay, because Jamaal Charles is such an unbelievable talent that he can do his damage in spite of Haley’s overprotectiveness.
Last season, Charles ranked as our best running back with a 25.8 overall rating. His 6.3 YPC average blew the league away, and he was tied for sixth among running backs with 3.1 yards after contact; pretty surprising for a smaller player.
With his 23.0 run rating, Charles was tied with Peterson for the best in the league. All the way down the list of running backs – dead last, in fact – was Thomas Jones. It might not have seemed like it for Charles owners last year, but he did receive 139 more snaps than Jones (597 vs. 461). However, Jones carried the ball 14 times more than Charles (and gained 570 less yards).
It’s safe to assume that Charles will see more carries this season; maybe Haley doesn’t hate you as much as it seems! Since entering the league in 2008, Charles has seen his carries steadily increase: 67, 190, 230. I think it’s safe to assume 265 carries in 2011.
This preseason, Dexter McCluster has handled a few carries. This shouldn’t worry Charles owners, as McCluster is much more a gadget player than either Charles or Jones. McCluster will handle a few carries this season, but nothing that will eat into Charles’ load.
Because Charles isn’t a workhorse, it does keep him healthy and fresh. Jones’ presence is certainly a pain, but it’s not enough to keep Charles out of the top 5 running backs this year. Keep viewing it as a good thing, it will help ease the pain every time Jones is on the field.
Will Hakeem Nicks of the Giants be considered a top five fantasy WR after this season? – @ToroTimes
Loechner – Not only will Hakeem Nicks be a top 5 receiver this season, he has a very real chance of being the best fantasy receiver overall. He had the fourth highest fantasy points per route of all receivers in 2010 and the seventh highest points per snap.
The biggest issue with Nicks is, unfortunately, his health. Since injuries are such an impossible thing to predict, let’s assume he plays all 16 games this season. His 126 targets in 2010 average out to 9.6 a game. This made Nicks the 11th most targeted receiver in just 13 games. If he had played all 16 games, he would have seen 155 targets, good for fourth in the league.
The Giants pass the ball 59% of the time and Nicks is on the field 86% of the time. He played 791 snaps last season and ran 480 pass routes. Although he ran a pass route only 60% of the time (81st in the league), he made up for it by being a target 30% of the time.
While explaining why Mario Manningham is a top 15 receiver, Mike Clay points out how Steve Smith’s departure to Philadelphia helps Nicks as well. While on the field in 2010, Nicks received an incredible 30% of Manning’s targets. There is no doubt that Nicks is a WR1 for fantasy this season, and he is well worth the second round pick necessary to acquire him.
Which rooks after the top 4 are you targeting? Are there any you predict to be monsters? – @TZNUTZ
Is Greg Little this years version of Tampa Bay's Mike Williams? What's his projections on the season? – @j0eo1s
Miglio – As I discovered when I looked at the past three years’ worth of rookies, they are a tricky bunch to project. When you say the “top 4”, I am assuming you mean Mark Ingram, Julio Jones, A.J. Green and Daniel Thomas, the top rookies being drafted at the moment. The next few rookies being taken include Roy Helu, Greg Little, Delone Carter and Shane Vereen. Ryan Williams was in that group until his knee went all Beanie Wells on him.
Helu has a bit of a hype train going, but I really do not trust Mike Shanahan. I say this relatively often, but one of the golden rules of fantasy football over the past decade has been “never draft a Bill Belichick or Mike Shanahan running back”. Rules are meant to be broken, and Helu is certainly being drafted late enough that there is minimal risk, but Tim Hightower is going to be taking a lot of snaps and, well, Shanahan is a capricious master.
Speaking of drafting New England running backs, Vereen is being taken ahead of Stevan Ridley, though in recent weeks they have flipped. I would say Ridley is the better option considering the shortened preseason and the fact that Vereen has only just gotten on the field. Even then, I think the backfield in New England is much too muddled to take a shot on one of the rookie backs.
A rookie running back whose chances of producing I like is Delone Carter. He has already surpassed Donald Brown on the depth chart, which was no surprise, and he could be seeing decent playing time as a result. Considering Joseph Addai’s penchant for injuries, Carter could find himself starting sometime this season. In that Indy offense, that could mean some serious fantasy scores.
Which brings me to Greg Little. A Bryan Fontaine favorite, Little will be starting in Cleveland, meaning he will be getting plenty of snaps. Is he the equivalent of Mike Williams? In terms of where he is being drafted, I would say yes. In terms of production, though, he will likely fall short. The offense in Cleveland is not going to be as good as the offense in Tampa Bay last year, even if Colt McCoy looks decent. Still, for a guy who will likely produce similar numbers to his rookie counterparts in Atlanta and Cincinnati, he is a much better value.
A couple of guys who are going undrafted that I like are receivers Cecil Shorts in Jacksonville and Denarius Moore in Oakland. Both rookies might find themselves starting at some point this season, and both have good upside. Just do not waste a decent draft pick on these guys.
At any rate, diagnosing which rookie(s) will produce “monster” numbers is pretty difficult. Keep an eye on depth charts and who will be getting a lot of playing time, that is your best bet. Beware of preseason hype, though, it is much safer to take a proven commodity than a rookie who has a couple of good preseason games.
Who is number 1 pick in standard 10 team league? – @natey777
Miglio – Adrian Peterson.
Despite my reservations about the Minnesota offense, Peterson is the proven commodity who will get things done in standard leagues. Arian Foster is a close runner up, but the fact that he only has one great fantasy year under his belt is the difference in my opinion. The only other trepidation about Peterson is the workload he has had over the past few years – he is at the top of the league over the past three years with 2,132 snaps played and 961 carries. The Vikings should be relying heavily on the stud again, though, making him the top pick in standard leagues.
Loechner – Arian Foster.
Although Adrian Peterson is going to have another great fantasy season, you have to go with Foster first overall. The biggest argument against him is that he has only done it once, whereas Peterson has proven season after season he is the real deal. But what’s to say Foster can’t come close to his 2010 totals? In his last 18 games (stretching back to 2009), Foster has registered 21 total touchdowns and rushed for over 100 yards nine times. In addition, 15 of those 18 games have ended with a positive PFF grade. What tips the scale in Foster’s favor is his supporting cast. The Vikings’ run blocking ranked 32nd in 2009 and 28th in 2010. The Texans’ run blocking improved from 19th to 3rd overall from 2009 to 2010, and their offense was PFF’s best last season.
Follow Tyler Loechner (@PFF_Loechner) and Alex Miglio (@PFF_Alex) on Twitter.
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