Fantasy: Off-Season IDP Depth Chart Outlook - AFC South

Continuing  our off-season look at the divisions around the NFL, I'm taking a look at the AFC South and each team's roster situation across the  defensive positions and will be speculating on what will happen during the off-season and how it could affect the IDP landscape.

Houston Texans

Mario Williams is going to get paid in 2012, so some team is going to back up the Brinks truck for him.  Wade Phillips was a God-send for the entire  Texans as he helped turn a defense that was more of a door-mat, into an elite unit.  He converted the defense from a 4-3 to a 3-4 and used his blitz  schemes to wreak havoc on opposing QBs, especially from the LB unit.  Led by Connor Barwin, who notched 12 sacks and 59 total QB pressures  (pressures/hits/sacks) in 2011 and graded out at +3.1 in pass rushing.  Barwin's value in IDP leagues lies on those leagues that put more emphasis on the bigger plays, as he rushed the passer 85.7% of his passing snaps.

Brian Cushing was Houston's best overall ‘backer and really adapted his game well to Phillips' 3-4 scheme.  He registered 125 total tackles and also 35 total QB pressures, while missing just 9 tackles in 1,098 defensive snaps.  Cushing graded out positively in all facets of the game and ended up with a +24.6 overall grade.  Tackles are what I look at in most IDP leagues, and he's one of the more efficient and sure tacklers in the league, finishing with a 16.1 Combined Tackle Efficiency, meaning he missed just 1 tackle in every 16.1 attempts.  On the opposite end of the spectrum was DeMeco Ryans, who endured one of the worst seasons of his career.  To give Ryans the benefit of the doubt, he was playing through an elbow injury and was coming off a torn Achilles'.  Not only that, he was coming off the field in dime packages and ended up playing in just 682 defensive snaps.  Ryans, if he can return to full health, could represent a value pick in 2012.

Now, back to Williams.  He appeared in just 5 games before a torn pectoral landed him on IR.  In those 5 games, he was a disruptive force, notching 5 sacks and generating 24 total QB pressures in 126 pass rushing snaps and rushed the passer 88.4% of the time on passing snaps.  It's unclear whether or not he'll return to Houston, especially since his franchise tag number will be in the range of $22 million.  The Texans want to bring him back, but with the emergence of Barwin and Brooks Reed, they don't need to break the bank.  Williams will draw plenty of interested on the open market, in addition to his pass rushing skills, he can play both OLB/DE in any defensive scheme.  As a rookie, Reed took the starting role in week 6 and never looked back.  After playing sparsely in the first 4 weeks, he found himself on the field for the majority of the snaps from week 5 on.  Reed finished with 6 sacks and 35 total QB pressures, making him an IDP asset in bigger play leagues and should be on most dynasty rosters.  Tim Dobbins was signed in the off-season, but barely played 100 snaps and the 29 year old will be a free agent.

The defensive line was also much improved with the hiring of Phillips.  The surprise of the line was Antonio Smith as he graded out at a +11.4 and only Justin Smith graded better than A. Smith's +26.6 pass rushing grade.  From an IDP standpoint, Smith finished with 7 sacks and contributed for those owners in deeper leagues or big play leagues.  He was able to generate 51 total QB pressures, so he was close to hitting double digits, but just missed on a few plays.  Something to keep in the back of your mind for 2012, Smith rushed on all but one passing snap and was second among 3-4 defensive ends in pass rush productivity, so he could have value in 2012 in this defense, albeit in deeper leagues.  JJ Watt was a surprise pick at 11th overall, but he turned out to be a great fit for the defense and was one of the more productive 3-4 defensive ends as a rookie.  Watt graded positively in all aspects of his game, and notched 7 sacks in his freshman season, to go along with 43 total QB pressures.  Tim Jamison played sparingly throughout the season and registered 372 snaps , 174 of those were passing snaps, where he rushed the passer on all but one of those snaps.  He did grade positively at a +8.4 and is under contract this season, but holds no value in IDP leagues.

The most improved unit of the defense was the secondary, going from 32nd overall to 3rd, thanks in large part to the additions of Jonathan Joseph and Danieal Manning.  Joseph graded out as the NFL's 13th ranked CB with a +9.1 grade and a +9.0 grade for his pass coverage.  From a statistical standpoint, he finished with 46 tackles and 4 INTs, but ranked near the bottom in his tackling efficiency.  Joseph was targeted 76 times and allowed 44 catches and just 3 TDs on balls thrown his way.  Brice McCain also helped solidify the secondary and graded out at a +5.9 in 403 defensive snaps.  He's not going to light IDP leagues on fire with his tackle numbers, but he's good in coverage and allowed 24 catches on 49 balls thrown his way, while not allowing a score.  Kareem Jackson continues to get burned in coverage and graded out at a -7.0 in pass coverage, keeping himself off the IDP radar and in the bust conversation.  Manning missed 4 weeks due to a fractured fibia.  He was a serviceable safety and an efficient tackler, only missing two tackles all season.  The Texans' secondary is looking like it should remain the same as their pieces are all under contract in the 2012 season.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are set to switch their defensive scheme from a 4-3 to a 3-4 in the 2012 season.  On the surface, it doesn't appear that they have the pieces to run a 3-4 effectively, as they are a bit smaller and quicker.  The key piece of this defense is going to be Pat Angerer, as he's entrenched as one of their ILBs, but it's unclear if Gary Brackett will be retained at his $5 million number.  Brackett landed on IR due a torn rotator cuff and hasn't played a full season since 2007, missing 25 games since then.  When Brackett is on the field, he's a solid IDP producer and an efficient tackler but that's the problem; he's missing too many games and will be 32 this season.  Once an injury happens, they seem to pile up and that seems to be the case with Brackett.  Kavell Conner had the quietest 90+ tackle season as any LB in IDP, but graded out poorly in pass coverage and missed 14 tackles, as he missed 1 tackle in every 7.9 attempts (though his efficiency was better in the run game).  If Brackett is brought back, it's going to negatively impact Conner's IDP value, but he'll be a decent LB handcuff due to Brackett's propensity for injuries.

Phillip Wheeler was one of their better run defenders, grading out at a +8.9 and missing just 5 tackles all season.  He'll be an FA, but the Colts might want to consider bringing him back for depth in their transitioning defense.  Angerer broke out, thanks in large part, to Brackett's injury and racked up 115 tackles and graded out at a +2.5.  As an LB that plays every down, you'd like to see him miss less tackles, as he was the leader in misses among ILBs this past season and was near the bottom in tackling efficiency, missing a tackle in every 7.4 attempts.  He's going to need to improve that number, but he's going to be a key piece to the defense and will be among the top LBs drafted, even with the switch to 3-4.

Dwight Freeney is expected to make the switch to OLB, but he's such a one dimensional player, that I don't think I could consider him in IDP leagues.  Freeney graded out at a +15.5 in pass rushing and had a combined 49 QB pressures, but he could be released, as the Colts can save big money by releasing him as he'll cost $19 million against the cap, and word out of town, is that he doesn't want to make the switch which could help write his ticket out of town.  The real wild-card of the LB corps will be Jerry Hughes.  He'll make the switch to stand-up OLB in Chuck Pagano's scheme and he was a pass rusher extraordinaire at TCU.  The former 1st rounder has been a bust up to this point, playing in just 152 snaps in 2011 and graded at a -3.7.  He better hope his skill-set matches the scheme in order to save his career.

Robert Mathis graded out amongst the top 15 4-3 DE with a +16.8 grade.  His counting stats were decent, as he notched 10 sacks and a total of 48 QB pressures, but is a free agent this offseason.  The Colts have made Mathis a priority and Freeney could be a cap casualty, based on both his number and attitude about switching to a stand-up OLB.  Fili Moala looks like he's going to make the shift to end, as he graded out amongst the worst defensive tackles, grading out at a -17.5 and ranking near the bottom in run stop percentage and only put up 7 total QB pressures, so he has a lot of improving to do if he's going to make it as an end.  Drake Nevis is going to battle for a starting gig, as well and showed some flashes and has upside for the 2012 season.  As long as his back is healthy, he has sleeper status for the 2012 season.  Antonio Johnson will shift inside to play NT, but from an IDP stand-point, Mathis is the one to keep an eye on here.

Antoine Bethea was a tackle machine, posting a career high of 129 and missed a tackle just 6.9% of his attempts.  His run defense was his strength, as he graded negatively in the run in just 3 games, ranked 6th among safeties with a +6.9 grade and missed just 1 tackle in every 22  tackle attempts in the run game.  In most tackle heavy IDP formats, he was the #1 DB and with the transition to a 3-4, will carry the same value heading into 2012.  Melvin Bullitt replaced Bob Sanders, but only appeared in 2 games due to a shoulder injury that ended his season.  His status is up in the air despite signing a 3-year deal before training camp.  David Caldwell spent most of the time at free safety, logging 606 defensive snaps and will be under contract this season, so there will be a position battle between him and Bullitt.  Jerraud Powers dislocated his elbow, but had emerged as Indy's top cover corner and was shadowing opposing team's top receivers.  Powers had graded out at a +2.0 and did not commit a penalty.  Jacob Lacey put up solid tackle numbers with 66, but the rest of his game graded out poorly with the exception of his play in the run game, grading out at a +3.1.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars, once again, ranked near the bottom of the league in pass rushing only generating 31 total sacks.  The Jaguars should make re-signing Jeremy Mincey their top priority.  He notched 8 sacks and totaled 57 QB pressures on the year, while grading out at a +19.9.  He was also a stout run stopper, as he had 26 stops on his run snaps, which constituted an offensive failure.  He really thrived in Mel Tucker's defensive system, but is unwilling to give any type of hometown discount.  He's one of the top DEs available, so the Jags may need to overpay for him.  John Chick was emerging as a decent end, but a knee injury cut his season short.  In 180 defensive snaps, Chick graded out at a +9.9 for his pass rushing, but for him to considered on the final roster, he needs to be 100% by training camp.  His contract for 2012 is friendly at $465,000 so that's a positive for the 29 year old.  Matt Roth endured a concussion, but couldn't get over the symptoms and was shut down.  Roth is going to be 29 and wants to stay in Jacksonville.  In 412 defensive snaps, he generated 15 total QB pressures and 4 sacks while grading out at a +8.2.  After saying last season that he wanted to stay in a 3-4 system, he played decent for the Jags and says he wants to stay.

Jacksonville added tackle machine Paul Posluszny in the off-season, but got off to a slow start in the new scheme.  Posluszny still finished with over 100 tackles, while grading at a +21.0, good for 6th among ILBs.  Since tackles are king in most IDP leagues, his tackle efficiency was among the best at a 22.8, missing only 1 tackle every 22.8 attempts.  He's not going anywhere should be considered among the top LBs in IDP.  Only Von Miller graded higher among 4-3 OLBs, as Daryl Smith enjoyed another productive season, even with him missing 11 tackles on the year, grading at a +27.6.  He wasn't heavily involved in the pass rush, only rushing on 83 of his passing snaps, but his productivity was high with 13 total QB pressures among those pass rushing rush snaps.  Smith should be targeted in most IDP formats as he's entering his contract year at age 29 and makes a solid LB2 target.  I was hoping that Clint Session would continue his high tackle output at WLB, but he too, battled concussion issues and appeared in just 9 games.  He signed a 5-year deal this past off-season so he'll look to bounce back.  Russell Allen filled in at WLB and graded out fairly at a +3.3 and finished with 40 tackles.  He's an RFA, so I'm sure the Jags will tender him an offer to provide depth.

Jacksonville's pass defense actually ranked 8th in the NFL, even with the injuries that seemed to plague the secondary all season.  Rashean Mathis is a free agent coming off ACL surgery, but he admits that he won't be 100% when the signing period begins.  William Middleton and Derek Cox were their best cover corners, grading out at a +10.0 and +5.9, respectively and are the tentative starters heading into 2012.  Their IDP numbers aren't world beaters by any stretch, but they could have some value in those leagues that are deeper and require a CB starter.  Drew Coleman was their primary slot corner, playing 343 snaps in the slot.  Dawan Landry was brought in during the off-season to help shore up the safety position and finished with, a respectable, 90 tackles.  Him and Dwight Lowery graded out poorly among the safety position, even without Peyton Manning for the season and Matt Schaub missing the majority of the season with a foot injury.  Courtney Greene was benched for poor play, only starting two games, but wound up on IR with a knee ailment.  Greene will be an RFA this off-season, but it's unclear as if he'll be tendered an offer.

Tennessee Titans

Cortland Finnegan has received a wrap for being a dirty player and some of it is warranted.  This past season, in a contract year, put up a decent season but his INTs were non-existent (only 1), but he only allowed 2 scores all season.  Finnegan, however, did not leave the field all season and played in all 1,142 defensive snaps for the Titans, which is exactly what you're looking for out of your corner in IDP leagues.  After posting 100 tackles in 2010, he posted 75 and chipped in 11 defended passes.  However, Finnegan's numbers should have been much better, as he played in what turned out to be one of the weakest divisions in the NFL.  He didn't take advantage of his opportunities.  There was no Peyton Manning; Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub missed significant time with various injuries.  On top of that, it's arguable that the Jaguars trotted out one of the worst QBs in the NFL in Blaine Gabbert.  So, as he enters his free agent off-season, that's something that opposing teams will need to look, especially since he's asking for $10+ million per year.  Finnegan, in 612 pass coverage snaps, allowed 51 catches on 81 targets and missed just 8 tackles total on the season, with 5 coming in the passing game which translates to 1 missed tackle per 10 attempts.  His play, resulted in a +15.8 grade, which put him 3rd among CBs.  As of now, all signs are pointing to Finnegan being with a different squad in 2011 as the Titans haven't conducted any talks.

His counterpart, Jason McCourty, had the more IDP friendly season, notching 100 total tackles, but was only able to haul in 2 picks.  In most leagues, where tackles are king, he was an IDP asset.  McCourty is in a contract year in 2012, so it's certainly reasonable to think that he'll improve upon his 2011 numbers.  For those in tackle, heavy formats, McCourty is as sure of a tackler as any corner in the league, as he missed just one tackle in every 17.7 attempts, giving him a miss percentage of 5.6% (including tackles/assists/missed tackles).  Like Finnegan, McCourty finished within the top 10 CBs with a +10.0 grade, but graded out worse in pass coverage with a +0.9 grade.

So, if Finnegan walks in free agency, who takes his place?  Alterraun Verner is poised to take over at RCB in 2012.  Verner, in 668 defensive snaps, graded out a +8.2 and finished with 46 tackles.  If we can break out the crystal ball, and extrapolate snaps, he could project to put up similar numbers to his 2010 season.  Verner is under contract through 2014 at a very cap-friendly salary ($490,000 this year and $575,000 in 2013).  The only other Titan corner to log snaps at corner was Chris Hawkins with 84.  The safety position for the Titans is in flux, as Jordan Babineaux, Chris Hope and Michael Griffin are all free agents.  Griffin graded out as their best safety with a +4.7, but his counting numbers fell short of his 2010 campaign.  Griffin finished with 69 tackles, but missed 10 others on the year.  Not nearly as many as Babineaux, however (18).  Griffin missed a tackle every 7.9 attempts, while Babineaux missed one every 5.9, though he had many more attempts.  Hope missed 6 games due to a fractured forearm and will be 32, so there's a chance that Tennessee lets him walk.  Griffin is the top candidate to receive the franchise tag.

The Titans took a chance on Barrett Ruud in the off-season and signed him to a one-year contract and it's a good thing too, as he remained a liability in run stopping and pass coverage, grading out to a -13.6, good for 48th among ILBs, while is -5.4 grade put him 46th among ILBs.  Ruud was limited by injury and played in just 596 snaps, but his tackling efficiency near the bottom, as he finished with a 6.8 (one missed tackle per 6.8 attempts).  The emergence of rookie, Colin McCarthy, will make the decision to let Ruud walk much easier.  McCarthy played in every single snap from week 10 on, finishing with 62 tackles and grading out at a +1.2 in 13 games.  He missed 9 tackles in 71 attempts, so I'm hoping those numbers go down with more snaps and experience.  The most important thing, he's set to start the season as starting MIKE in 2012.  Akeem Ayers and Will Witherspoon dominated the snaps at OLB, which was surprising as it was expected that Gerald McRath would be the SLB, but he only appeared in 142 defensive snaps.  Witherspoon and Ayers didn't put up IDP friendly digits, but they graded out among the top 30 4-3 OLB, primarily because they were solid in stopping the run.  Ayers played in 369 run snaps and missed just 3 tackles, making 21 defensive stop, whereas, Witherspoon played in 334 run snaps and missed only 2 tackles and made 16 defensive stops (where stops constitute a loss for the offense).

The defensive line was the proverbial rotating door, as 5 defensive linemen shared, at least, 200+ defensive snaps.  Jason Jones, Dave Ball and Derrick Morgan each logged over 635 snaps, however, they graded out negatively overall and in their pass rushing efficiency.  Jones graded out at a -9.3 and notched just 3  sacks in 398 pass rushing snaps.  Jones, however, was playing out of position, as he played DLE instead of his customary defensive tackle position and Tennessee wants to bring him back in 2012.  In 2012, he had 15 QB pressures as DL, whereas he had 34 paying DT in 2010, so he could be back to customary role if brought back to the Titans.  Dave Ball suffered a concussion that knocked him out a few weeks and also had him considering retirement.  Ball logged 404 pass rushing snaps and 4 sacks to go along with 17 QB pressures, though he graded out at a -7.2.  It's expected that Ball will not be back with the Titans this season.  Morgan, came back from knee surgery and is one of the young building blocks of the defensive line.  Morgan was one of their better run stopping linemen, grading at a +3.8 and not missing a tackle.  For IDP purposes, Morgan is going to need to improve his pass rushing abilities, only generating 28 total QB pressures on 635 defensive snaps and graded negatively in pass rushing in 11 of 16 weeks.  Karl Klug and Jurrell Casey are solid interior linemen, especially Klug, as he registered 6 sacks from DT position grading out a +5.8 in the pass rush.  Casey was the run stuffer, registering 50 tackles, missing a tackle just 3.8% of his attempts and grading out at a +12.5 in the run defense.  Depending on your league size, roster requirements and scoring, these guys could make their way on an IDP roster at some point in 2012.

Follow Mike on Twitter @PFF_MWoellert….and our main Twitter feed @ProFootballFocus

 

 

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