Fantasy: Off-Season Depth Chart Outlook – NFC North

Our Off-season Depth Chart Outlook series continues today with the NFC North division.

What I’m doing here is going team-by-team and taking a look at each team’s roster situation at the four key offensive Fantasy Football positions (QB RB WR TE). I’ll also be speculating on a few potential off-season moves we could see each of these teams make.

List of 2012 Free Agents at the QB/RB/WR/TE positions

Preliminary 2012 Player Rankings

Chicago Bears

Signed through 2013, Jay Cutler will be back under center for Chicago next season. Impending UFA Caleb Hanie was ineffective as a starter this past season while Cutler was out and is unlikely to return. Josh McCown is also an UFA, but may have earned himself an extension after playing decent football in place of Hanie. A rookie in 2011, Nathan Enderle will compete for the No. 2 job.

Matt Forte is an UFA, but the team is expected to move quickly in getting him an extension. Marion Barber is signed through next season, but a poor effort in 2011 will like result in him getting cut loose. Kahlil Bell, a restricted free agent, was a pleasant surprise when Forte and Barber were out and the Bears will tender him. He has a good shot at the No. 2 job next season. Armando Allen will be in camp to compete for a roster spot. Harvey Unga spent all of 2011 on the Reserve list and is an UFA.

Roy Williams is an UFA and is unlikely to return after an ineffective season that also happened to conclude with the departure of Mike Martz. Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett, Devin Hester, and Dane Sanzenbacher are all under contract for next season and should be back. The team needs immediate help more than a long-term solution, so a Free Agent signing seems more likely than a draft selection. Pairing Knox up out wide with a Vincent Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, or Pierre Garcon would make sense, but won’t be cheap. Bennett would man the slot. Max Komar is on the roster, but his best bet is making the team as a camp body.

Kellen Davis is an UFA and although they’ll be looking to bring him back, an upgrade couldn’t hurt, especially after they stripped the offense of Greg Olsen last off-season. Fred Davis likely won’t make it out of Washington without a contract, but keep an eye on a few kids with upside like Martellus Bennett, Jacob Tamme, and Joel Dreessen. Matt Spaeth is signed through 2013 and will help out with blocking. Kyle Adams and Andre Smith will compete for a roster spot. Draylen Ross was given a Futures deal.

Detroit Lions

Matt Stafford has another three years on his deal and showed in 2011 that he is the real deal. Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton are both UFAs, however, so the scenery behind him could be a bit different. The team will need to decide which of the two to target because both have No. 2 ability. Hill is the veteran and incumbent to the back-up role, but Stanton is younger and provides quite a bit more upside. Expect one to stay and one to move on with Hill the better bet to stick around.

The Lions running back situation was expected to be a major strength in 2011, but injuries destroyed that plan. Jahvid Best and Mikel Leshoure return to the field in 2012 and getting them healthy will be key for the Lions’ offense. Kevin Smith filled in admirably for Best/Leshoure this past season, but was on a one year deal. Considering the starter’s injury issues, though, look for management to try and bring him back with a short-term deal. The Lions will look to model their running game after the Saints: Leshoure (Ingram) on early downs, Best on passing downs (Sproles), and a random dose of both for Smith (Thomas). Maurice Morris is an UFA and could move on considering that best case scenario is RB No. 4. Keiland Williams is signed through 2012 and could be the fourth back. UFA Jerome Harrison’s future is unknown after a tumor was found on his brain this past season. Joique Bell will be in camp and return man Stefan Logan will likely be tendered as a restricted free agent.

Calvin Johnson enters a contract year in 2012, but he’ll be very expensive and the team will look to work out an extension. Nate Burleson and Titus Young worked well as a two-three punch behind Johnson this past season and should hang on to their roles in 2012. Don’t be surprised, however, if Young moves past slot man Burleson in the target department. Rashied Davis and Maurice Stovall shared No. 4 duties in 2011 and both are UFAs. Futures contracts were handed out to Marcus Harris, Terrence Toliver, and Nate Hughes. Toliver has the best shot at replacing Davis/Stovall on the active roster.

Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler will be back in 2012 as one of the league’s best pass-catching TE duos. Pettigrew rarely misses a snap and Scheffler is a passing-down specialist. Will Heller is also under contract and provides blocking help. Nate Overbay signed a Futures contract.

Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers is signed through the 2014 season, but the situation behind him could be different next year. Matt Flynn is an UFA and there will be plenty of interest in him on the open market. The team has the option of applying the Franchise Tag, but it seems unlikely for a back-up quarterback, especially when Jermichael Finley could be in need of it. If Flynn leaves, the team will have to decide if a Free Agent signing would be an upgrade over current No. 3 QB Graham Harrell.
James Starks will be back as the team’s top tailback in 2012, but Ryan Grant is an UFA. There’s no indication either way if the team will look to retain Grant, but he may look elsewhere for a starting job (even though he won’t find one). Grant might be expendable because the team will have 2011 draft pick Alex Green back from IR. Brandon Saine and Futures contract candidate Joe Hoese will also push for a roster spot.

The Packers top five wide receivers are signed through next season, which means that a strength this past season should only be stronger in 2012. Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson will return as the starters. James Jones will return to his reserve role. Randall Cobb’s emergence could lead to the team cutting bait on Donald Driver just prior to the last year of his deal. The Packers would have to pay Driver upwards of $5 million, including a $2.2 million roster bonus. Tori Gurley could make a push for the No. 5 WR job if Driver is let go. Diondre Borel and Shaky Smithson will join him in camp.

The aforementioned Jermichael Finley is an UFA this off-season and will be a candidate for the Franchised Tag if a multi-year extension cannot be reached. Reserves Andrew Quarless, Tom Crabtree, DJ Williams, and Ryan Taylor are all under contract through, at least, next season. Crabtree and Taylor do some blocking, Williams projects as a pass-catcher, and Quarless does a bit of both.

Minnesota Vikings

Christian Ponder wasn’t quite as good as the Vikings would’ve hoped in his rookie campaign, but (a) the team around him, including the receiving situation, was underwhelming and (b) he should progress in his second year. Joe Webb is under contract and will push Ponder in camp. Sage Rosenfels is an UFA, but could be back as a mentor to both young quarterbacks.

Adrian Peterson’s torn up knee could mean that he starts next season on the PUP list. Even if he doesn’t, players tend to struggle in their first year from a torn ACL. Toby Gerhart is the projected Week 1 starter and should see a heavy workload. Lorenzo Booker is an UFA and could easily be out the door, especially considering that Caleb King and Jordan Todman were both signed through 2013. Matt Asiata was given a Futures contract. Clearly, there isn’t an impact player here after Gerhart, so look for the team to add a rookie or free agent to the mix. Justin Forsett, Maurice Morris, or Cadillac Williams would make for a good compliment.

Percy Harvin and Michael Jenkins are signed through 2013, but the Vikings absolutely need an upgrade here. That is especially the case with Devin Aromashodu and Greg Camarillo both headed for Free Agency. With Harvin handling most of his targets near the line of scrimmage, an impact deep threat like Vincent Jackson, Brandon Lloyd, DeSean Jackson, or Pierre Garcon make sense. If they decide to save some cash, Robert Meachem, Jerome Simpson, and Mario Manningham will be on the radar. Stephen Burton and Emmanuel Arceneaux will be in camp to compete for a bench spot. Kerry Taylor and Kris Adams were given Futures contracts.

Late in the 2011 season, Kyle Rudolph moved ahead of impeding UFA Visanthe Shiancoe on the TE depth chart. Both were on the field quite a bit, but Rudolph was the clear leader of the committee attack down the stretch. With Shiancoe headed for free agency, Rudolph – a second round pick in 2011 – should be in line to take over as the clear No. 1 next season. If Shiancoe doesn’t want to return as the backup, Minnesota will look to Free Agency to fill the gap. Jeremy Shockey, Martellus Bennett, Joel Dreessen, and Randy McMichael make sense. Mickey Shuler and Futures contract signee Allen Reisner will compete for the No. 3 job.

Follow Mike Clay on Twitter: @PFF_MikeClay