Fantasy: New York Pass Attack Will Avoid Its Usual Winter Slide

No offense has occupied the minds of nervous fantasy owners quite like the New York Giants, who due to a combination of injury and emergence, now possess eight borderline fantasy starters. And it only gets more confusing when December falls upon the Meadowlands and those MetLife Stadium winds.

History suggests that the increasing production of Eli Manning and this Giants pass offense will freeze from here on out and give way to the ground game, but in this case history deceives.

The absences of Steve Smith and Kevin Boss showed in hideous fashion early in the season. Manning looked awful under pressure and far from the elite status he apparently had the unmitigated gall to declare.

As the nation guffawed, a veteran quarterback and his young receivers worked out the kinks.

Since watching a flat Giants offense through the opening weeks against Washington and St. Louis, swift fantasy owners have reaped the benefits of incredible waiver wire value.

Sure, there are varying levels and reasons for trepidation when it comes to the start-ables in this offense: Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, Victor Cruz, Ahmad Bradshaw, Brandon Jacobs, Danny Ware and Jake Ballard. Half of them are often game-time injury decisions and cannibalize each other to an extent.

But the Giants — ranked fifth in total TDs and sixth in passing yards — have provided just ample enough offense to create a thriving environment for low-end starters that can explode. The challenge has been when to capitalize, and is now whether to ride, bench or sell high.

Let’s plunge deeper into the numbers to explain who’s stepping up in this group going forward, and show why the passing game — unlike every other season in the Eli Manning era — will continue to blossom over the regular season’s final month.

Manningham and Cruz for different reasons can both be considered very much at fault for Manning’s two picks against San Francisco last week, which may or may not factor into Eli’s Distribution of Trust (Can we attempt to invent that stat? With the following table, I’m a formula away from the closest thing. Other than performing inception.)

In terms of Receptions/Targets/Yards/TDs/Interceptions Allowed on Target:

Two of Ballard’s receptions in his fantasy dud at San Francisco came on must-score drives at the end, the second of which was a spectacular leaping catch for a man his size — with Patrick Willis marking. It’s not crazy to already declare him better than Boss. He’s now a decent fantasy start if you whiffed on or neglected tight end in the draft.

Not much separation has been created between Manningham (33 targets) and Cruz (32) over the past four weeks. But I will say Manningham seems to be the preference both near the end zone and when it comes to ripping the top off the defense.

If you’re handcuffing or mulling the waiver wire, I’d go Manningham. If Eli’s almost-game-tying bomb was on target last week then Manningham would’ve had an incredible fantasy day instead of just very good. He’s still the one you want after Nicks. Both Cruz and Manningham are decent low WR2/early WR3s in 12-team leagues if the Giants continue to play in games that are close or feature Big Blue falling behind.

This could certainly occur against the upcoming schedule, which features four of the top nine PFF overall rated offenses — accompanied by pass defenses that aren’t all that frightening.

PFF pegs the Giants 26th in pass blocking and 24th in run blocking, but a good quarterback can make up for bad line play far better than a running back with no space. And even as blustery cold sets in, I think offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride will factor this heavily into play calling.

Manning ranks second in PFF QB rating behind destroyer-of-worlds Aaron Rodgers and is on pace to exceed 30 TDs for the second straight year. His performance in the face of Niners pressure, and a dominated offensive line, was among the best across the league this year if not for two interceptions. In his defense, one involved Manningham wrongly cutting off his route and the other followed directly after Cruz dropped a 20-plus gainer.

Many will note that Manning’s game diminishes in the face of the Meadowlands winds in December and January, and that the Giants typically fade down the stretch under Coughlin. They were soundly beaten in both home playoff contests during his tenure, and lost two of their final three to miss the postseason in 2010, among many examples.

However, Eli threw for 289 yards in their lone home December game last season, and those two playoff-damning losses came against the Packers and Eagles. Also, this has developed into a much less run-centric offense over the past two years as Manning accelerated his maturation as a quarterback. If you’re already starting him, keep with it. MetLife Stadium might not be the most conducive venue to a passing attack, but don’t let the three pre-Week 17 home games scare you away completely. He’ll still keep his pace to top 30 scores and 4,000 yards for the year.

The Giants also feature a major upgrades at the receiver position. At this time last year, Victor Cruz and Steve Smith sat on IR while Nicks would miss three games down the stretch with compartment syndrome. And once again, Ballard may be a better target than Boss.

The running back situation only adds reason to continue believing in the Giants’ pass focus. With Bradshaw injured and likely out this week as well, Ware and Jacobs become increasingly attractive options — but still not top 20. Ware only for some major deep-league desperation.

Here’s how they’ve fared in his absence thus far measured by carries/rushing yards/catches/receiving yards/touchdowns. Translation: No one’s forgetting about Bradshaw.

When Bradshaw nears 100 percent, note that the PFF overall rating gives him the edge this year +11.3 to +1.8 over Jacobs. As long as Bradshaw’s injured, expect New York to amass a very low run percentage. Manning threw for 39 and 40 times in those contests, which were both close throughout before requiring a rally late.

This isn’t the prototypical bruising Giants run offense. They rank 29th in rushing yards and 31st in yards per carry. It’s all firmly on Manning’s capable shoulders and will remain so.

The yearly trend stops here for the Giants’ pass attack. Don’t count it dead as it gets cold.