Fantasy: Josh Freeman - No Respect

Sure, most people realize it.  Josh Freeman broke out in a big way in 2010 with 3,400 yards passing, an impressive 25 passing TDs and 6 interceptions.  Coming out of Kansas State, many called him a “boom/bust type” and/or “underdeveloped”, but that stigma only lasted one year.

Despite the impressive season, he still isn’t getting a terrible amount of respect from the casual NFL fan nor the fantasy world.  After a top 10 finish (ranked 7^th overall in fantasy points in 2010), Freeman’s average draft position in 2011 mock fantasy drafts (53 Draftmaster drafts specifically) is the 10^th quarterback.  That’s after guys like Matt Schaub, Ben Roethlisberger and Tony Romo.  Seem about right?  I think not.  Freeman made a gigantic leap in 2010 and there’s reason to believe that he still has tremendous upside despite the top 10 finish.  There are numerous indicators suggesting he may ultimately perform as well as some of those household names like Philip Rivers or Drew Brees in a season or two.

To explain why, let’s analyze a few data sets:

1- Freeman in comparison to fellow top 10 players, in addition to Big Ben and Eli Manning who both are annually ranked in the top 10 or on the cusp the top 10;

2- Freeman’s rookie season and sophomore season as compared to recent top rookie QBs Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan.

Freeman versus Fellow Top 10+

(Assumes 1 point per 25 yards passing and 4 points per TD; total fantasy points have been rounded after considering decimal scoring)

In summary, the following is noted:

1-    Freeman ranked 7^th overall in FP overall among QBs

2-    Freeman ranked 5^th in FP/snap

3-    Freeman ranked 6^th in FP/opportunity (opportunity being the total number of passing/rushing plays involved in)

4-    Freeman ranked 6^th in FP/dropback

5-    Freeman ranked 2^nd in dropback/interception

6-    The Buccaneers ranked as the 2^nd worst pass blocking team per our PFF pass blocking team rankings, which was only better than Big Ben’s Steelers (the Buccaneers ranked 3^rd worst in the NFL in 2010)

Taking the above in context of the Buccaneer’s weapons, consider that Freeman’s top receiver was a rookie (Mike Williams) and his next best receiver was his tight end, Kellen Winslow.  After that, the talent and experience falls off a shelf.  Arrelious Benn was his next best receiver, but was also a rookie who played 360 snaps.  Those 360 snaps only represented roughly half of the team’s total snaps for the season.   Where as all of the other quarterbacks listed above, aside from Freeman, had at least one perennial pro bowl or 1,000 yard receiver/tight end at their disposal.  Despite the lack of experienced receivers, a shallow talent pool and atrocious pass blocking, Freeman still finished inside the top 10 for QBs, and accumulated the more impressive FP/opportunity, FP/snap, etc. statistics as noted in the table above.

In addition, the Bucs are a very young team that will continue to mature over the next few seasons after a successful 2010.  As that maturity occurs with guys like Williams, Benn, and even Freeman, that will only mean better production for Freeman.  Let’s not forget that Freeman is only 23 coming off one of the best seasons for a quarterback 23 or younger since Dan Marino, Drew Bledsoe, Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger.  Clearly, he’s in good company.

Lastly, the Tampa offensive line underwent a number of changes in 2010 due to injuries to three of their original five starting lineman.  More consistency upfront and a new offensive line coach in 2011 should mean consistent, if not better, pass blocking which in turn should yield similar or better results from Freeman.

What does this all mean in one short sentence?  It screams upside potential.  Josh Freeman had a monster season, but still isn’t getting the respect he warrants.  He’s being drafted as the 10^th quarterback overall, but just finished a year as the 7^th best fantasy quarterback while battling a ton of adversity in only his second season as a starter.  He represents tremendous value in both redraft and dynasty leagues.

Want some more evidence on why he may improve? Let’s compare Freeman’s progress to some other recent rookie quarterbacks.

Freeman versus Matt Ryan & Joe Flacco

As you can see in the above chart, Josh Freeman clearly experienced the largest improvement in production from his rookie year to his second season, while Ryan and Flacco both remained relatively flat after above average rookie seasons at QB.  However, from their second to third season, both Flacco and Ryan saw their FP/Opportunity and Dropback/Interception ratios improve.  Now, it’s hard to believe that Freeman’s Dropback/Interception ratio will again improve after being ranked 2^nd overall in 2010, but being that both Ryan and Flacco saw an increase in their FP/Opportunity, we should expect a similar result for Freeman.

Next let’s take a look at each of these quarterback’s completion percentage across the field over the last few seasons:

Note the following based on the above:

1-    Overall, both Ryan and Flacco experienced a slight improvement in their completion percentage from 0-9 yards from scrimmage during their first three seasons

2-    While both Ryan and Flacco saw an improvement in their 10-19 yard completion percentage from their second to third season, overall there is no clear pattern in that range

3-    In the 20+ yard range, Ryan’s rookie year completion percentage appears to be an anomaly at an impressive and abnormally high 40%, and, therefore is not considered further in this analysis

4-    In the 20+ yard range, Ryan saw improvement from his second to third season

5-    In the 20+ yard range, Flacco experienced improvement in both his second and third seasons

As a result and assuming a similar increase for Freeman, we should expect to see an increase in his 0-9 yard and 20+ yard completion percentage in his third season (2011), which should result in an increase in his fantasy production.

While the Freeman versus other rookie quarterbacks analysis is interesting, it’s certainly a softer case for why he’s undervalued given the fact that a completion percentage increase isn’t directly correlated with completion percentage.  Number of attempts is a variable that would influence the fantasy production.  This shows that Freeman, like Ryan and Flacco, hasn’t necessarily reached his peak just yet.

In the end, Freeman is a buy target.  I’m certainly targeting him in every one of my dynasty leagues.  Keep an eye on his redraft value through the off season as well.  We should be looking at a more impressive finish from Freeman in 2011.  The indicators are definitely there.