IDP Stock Market looks at IDP players that are being overvalued and undervalued based on our advanced NFL statistics. If you’re looking for the sell-high or buy-low IDP candidates for your fantasy roster, this is the article for you.
Buy:
Jimmy Smith – CB – Baltimore Ravens
Week 8 saw the Ravens 1st round draft pick Jimmy Smith finally take the field for the first time in 2011. Although it was only for three snaps it was a sign that Smith is ready to contribute this year and it will surely not be too long before he displaces Cary Williams (-7.9) as a starter at RCB. Throughout the preseason Smith was expected to be the starter in week 1 (alongside Williams), however i t was rumoured he had been beaten out by Ladarius Webb for the first game, but we never found out as Smith was injured on the opening kick-off. As the season has panned out it is Webb (+5.6) who has become the #1 corner in Baltimore, so it will be Williams who eventually gets displaced. Rookie cornerbacks are often tested early and often so Smith holds value if he sees the field this year, and if he lives up to his pre-draft hype, he could well be a decent dynasty addition too.
Brian Cushing – LB – Houston Texans
Brian Cushing has definitely reaped the rewards of the switch to the 3-4 defense in Houston and is playing at a high level. In fact, Cushing is playing even better than when he was the Defensive Rookie of the Year. In 2009 when Cushing won the DRoY he graded +18.9 over 16 games and 1,022 snaps. So far this season he had graded +16.5 in just 8 games and 482 snaps. Cushing is also on pace for more tackles, making a tackle on 8.71% of snaps compared to 7.63% in 2009. More importantly Cushing is actually being more effective as a pass-rusher and blitzing 67.4% more often. On 129 pass-rushes as a rookie Cushing generated pressure on 19.38% blitzes (6 sacks, 8 hits, 11 pressures), by comparison this season he has blitzed 108 times and disrupted the QB on 21.30% (1 sack, 6 hits, 16 pressures). Cushing isn’t really garnering the credit he deserves for his performance, so now is the time to try and pick him up.
Hold:
Aldon Smith – LB – San Francisco 49ers
A pass-rushing phenomenon, Aldon Smith has 7 sacks in his last four games, yet he still hasn’t won a starting role in San Francisco. Smith has been so impressive when blitzing, his +9.8 pass-rushing grade (on 232 snaps) is better than the household names Mario Williams (+9.2 on 225 snaps) and James Harrison (+6.4 on 221 snaps). The problem has been his very low tackle numbers – five. Despite the big plays, Smith is vulnerable to scoring a zero in fantasy, so that makes it hard to recommend him as more than a match-up play. Rather than sell high on Smith you should keep him on your bench, especially in dynasty leagues with taxi squads, as once he wins a starting place on a very good 49ers defense, he should see a spike in his fantasy numbers.
Sell:
Jared Allen – DE – Minnesota Vikings
As brilliant as Jared Allen has been, his current level of play is simply unsustainable over the course of a 16 game season, and solely on that basis I am recommending him as a sell. As a PFF writer you have to love data, and we all know about Mike Clay’s regression theory, so on that basis…. The most sacks ever in a single season is the 22.5 recorded by Michael Strahan in 2001 and the most Allen has ever recorded is 15.5. So far in just 8 games, Allen has brought down the opposing QB at least once in every game, charting 13 which sets an unbelievable pace for the 8 year veteran. With Justin Tuck and Trent Cole just returning from their respective injuries with lacklustre week 8 performances, it might be worth putting in a cheeky trade offer that snags you either of them with a useful something extra thrown in.
Questions and comments are welcome – @PFF_RossMiles
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