Dr. Emmett Brown was shot by Libyan terrorists 25 years ago this week. Luckily, he was wearing a bullet-proof vest and survived. For those of you who do not realize it, Back to the Future just celebrated its 25th anniversary. We are just five years away from hoverboards and flying cars! At any rate, Doc was smart enough to future -roof himself, and so should you.
More than just buy low candidates or sleepers, these players I present below are going to deliver during the second half of the fantasy season. Grab them now, or soon, before the trade deadline passes and you are kicking yourself in week 13. If you are an owner, hold on to these guys.
Larry Fitzgerald
The Arizona offense is putrid; their quarterback situation is unsettled, and Larry Fitzgerald has caused much consternation amongst his owners. Naturally, a lot of lowball offers have been presented for Fitzgerald, and I do not doubt many fantasy owners have enriched their receiving corps by buying low. The question remains: will Fitzgerald perform?
Larry is tied with Miles Austin at 52 targets on the season, and Fitzgerald has had his bye week. Despite Arizona’s quarterback woes, they are still trying to get him the ball. Eventually, that will pay off in a big way. Fitzgerald is an elite wide receiver, and with Steve Breaston and Early Doucet returning from injury, defensive pressure on Fitzgerald should ease and some better passes throws in his direction. The eventual emergence of Beanie Wells (see below) should help as well. A man with Fitzgerald's talent cannot be denied all season long; he will get his numbers in spades, and those who did not keep the faith will suffer for it.
Ryan Mathews
Mathews is a prime example of why rookie running backs should not be trusted, at least not with high draft picks. He was drafted as a RB1 in most leagues and has rewarded his owners with a –1.8 PFF rating and a paltry 37 fantasy points to date in standard leagues. Even patient owners are starting to feel the burn, and he has quickly become a buy-low candidate; he has even been dropped in some leagues. The fact of the matter is the Chargers simply cannot win without establishing a run game. Mathews has been on the field for less than 30 snaps over the past several weeks, largely in part to early Charger deficits. Norv Turner is approaching the firing point in his coaching tenure, but he should get the Chargers running the ball again. The good news here is that Mike Tolbert has seen his playing time steadily give way to Mathews.
Despite his rating of –1.8 – just behind Tolbert (–1.7) – Mathews averages a healthy 4.7 YPC, and his rating is negatively affected by his poor work in the passing game. If Mathews gets on the field more often, he will make the most of his opportunities and put up some solid fantasy numbers. The Chargers have notoriously played well in the second half of the season, and Mathews should be a big beneficiary of that tradition. While Darren Sproles will continue to see looks out of the backfield, Ryan Mathews should see his playing time increase along with his production. Incidentally, Sproles ran 37 pass routes on 46 snaps this past weekend; pick him up immediately in your PPR league if he is available.
Chad Henne
The Dolphins quarterback has quietly put up solid fantasy numbers over the past several weeks, including a good game against Pittsburgh’s tenacious D while leading the Dolphins to victory – well, at least until the officials botched that Roethlisberger fumble call, but that is neither here nor there. Henne's improving rapport with Brandon Marshall (6.6 overall rating) and safety net in Davone Bess (7.6) make Henne a huge sleeper down the stretch. Chad rates a respectable 11.7, good for 15th in the league and ahead of quarterbacks Carson Palmer, Sam Bradford, Josh Freeman, Mark Sanchez, and Jay Cutler.
Henne’s real value comes at the end of the fantasy regular season and into the playoffs. His final five fantasy matchups are against Oakland (–1.9 pass coverage rating), Cleveland (–9.3), New York Jets (0.9, but against whom Henne had 363 yards and 2 TDs in week 3), Buffalo (–14.9), and Detroit (–10.0). Considering Henne has a fantastic offensive line (8.2 pass block rating), he will be able to pick apart most of those defenses and post great fantasy scores.
I have already talked about Henne this season, but surprisingly, Henne is owned in just 60.7% of ESPN leagues and 47% of Yahoo leagues. Did no one listen? Now is a good time to grab him before owners realize he has favorable matchups down the line. He should be relatively easy to trade for as well.
Miles Austin
He had already thrown up a few fantasy stinkers before Tony Romo went down, and fantasy owners have reason to be nervous going forward with Jon Kitna at the helm. Kitna, though, has played a few decent seasons in years past and has a lot of weapons in that Dallas offense. Much like Fitzgerald, I expect Austin to be just fine down the stretch.
Miles has played surprisingly poorly, rating a –2.8 thus far, dropping 5 passes and catching just 69% of his 52 targets. His reception percentage is on par with last season, but Austin rated a 13.2 in 2009 and dropped just 3 passes. The evidence is there for a marked improvement during the second half of the season; Austin is certainly getting the targets, and the re-emergence of Jason Witten and Dez Bryant’s coming-out party should open things up for Miles. Losing Romo will mitigate his value, but Austin will still put up solid fantasy numbers. I have already put in several buy-low bids for Austin; get yours in now before it is too late.
Beanie Wells
Another Arizona player falls victim to the Cardinals offense. Wells, though, is primed to burst onto the scene in the second half of the season. This is largely in part to Tim Hightower’s ineptitude, rating dead last at –6.2 amongst all running backs on PFF. Wells is not far behind, rating 95th at –1.9, but he has improved with time after returning from his secret surgery.
Indeed, Wells garnered 70% of the carries in Arizona’s last game, albeit on just 23 snaps, but he should continue to see the bulk of the workload moving forward. Despite his 3.5 YPC, he has shown flashes of talent this season. With the aforementioned return of Breaston and Doucet, the passing game should open up and create some space in the running game as well. Although I am not as high on Wells as I am for the others in this group, he is worth picking up or buying very low.
Other Week 7 storylines:
What We Learned: Lee Evans is alive!
Lee Evans has had two good fantasy weeks in a row sandwiched around a bye week. Evans’ stock is rising at the same rate as Ryan Fitzpatrick’s improvement. It is still tough to trust Evans (0.8 overall rating), who has just 36 targets on the season and has burned fantasy owners for years, but he is worth picking up if available in your league. He actually saved my skin as an emergency bye replacement a couple of weeks ago; he could do the same for you.
What We Already Knew: Roy Williams was fool’s gold.
In part because of Tony Romo’s injury, Williams was targeted a meager 3 times with 0 receptions for 0 yards and 0 touchdowns against the Giants this past Monday. I hope you sold high, because you can expect more of the same from here on out as Kitna, who has a history of not throwing to Roy Williams, will likely look to Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten first. Try to trade him while he still retains some value, but Williams should be on your bench henceforth.
Pickup of the Week: RB Reggie Bush, NO
Crazy that he is here, but Reggie Bush is just owned in 68.6% of ESPN leagues and 59% of Yahoo leagues. He is likely going to miss another week, but now is the time to grab him before the rush next week, especially if you play in a PPR league. Bush will help in your playoff push and perhaps beyond.
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