Football Stock Market is a weekly article during the NFL season which examines players you should buy or sell in your fantasy league.
Buy
Santana Moss
Week 11 Stats: DNP (Injured)
This is simply based on Santana Moss being the best wide receiver on the Washington Redskins active roster. If he is still owned, he has likely been forgotten through his time missed. Make a low offer and hope he can perform as well as he did down the stretch last season.
While last season's final four games won’t take your breath away, they were solid efforts. During this stretch, Moss’ PFF rating in the passing game was no worse than 1.0 in each game. He caught 29 passes for 313 yards, along with scoring three touchdowns.
A return to the lineup should be right around the corner. You could do a lot worse before the trading deadline.
Darren Sproles
Week 11 Stats: Bye Week
Darren Sproles will bounce back from his worst performance of the season. First, it came against the Atlanta Falcons. They happen to be one of the most difficult teams to run against. As a collective unit, they have earned a score of 42.2 for defending the run, which is 9th best this season. They have prevented four consecutive opponents from scoring a rushing touchdown. Also, only the San Francisco 49ers have allowed fewer rushing yards per game.
Unfortunately, Sproles will face the Falcons again and it comes in week 16. This is unfortunate since it is likely your championship week. Although, prior to facing the Falcons again, their next four opponents will provide opportunities to succeed. In this time they will face the New York Giants, Detroit Lions, Tennessee Titans and Minnesota Vikings.
The Giants have allowed three of the last five runners they have faced to reach the 100 yard mark. Those three averaged an outstanding 6.24 yards per attempt.
Next up, the Lions have struggled against the run. Particularly, since they suffered their first loss. Starting with that game, opposing feature backs have averaged 5.4 yards per attempt and 125.8 total yards per game.
Tennessee is an interesting match. A lot of their numbers were made to look a lot worse in a terrible loss to the Texans a few weeks back. In that game, both Arian Foster and Ben Tate rushed for more than 100 yards. Also, Foster added 119 yards receiving and scored three times. The next three opponents gave a pedestrian effort trying to run the ball. Then along came last week. Michael Turner had a fun time as he tallied 112 yards on 21 attempts, along with finding the end zone once.
Lastly, the Minnesota Vikings possibly provide the most difficult matchup leading up to the Falcons game. They rank as the 9th best team against the run according to yards per game. PFF confirms this by scoring them as the third best run defense. Working in the favor of Sproles is injuries to the Vikings defense, specifically the loss of Antoine Winfield. From all the times I have watched the Vikings play, he is the team’s most consistent tackler.
Hopefully the current Sproles owner is thinking he will fade down the stretch and is ready to part with him.
LeGarrette Blount
Week 11 Stats: 18 Att, 107 Yds, 1 TD
Ideally, you want to target someone after an injury or poor performance. LeGarrette Blount does not fall into either category. Meaning, you may have to pay a little higher price to get him. I’m not calling for you to give up the farm for Blount, but there is a great chance he performs well in each remaining game.
For Blount to succeed, he needs his team to stay competitive. In his three poor performances, the Buccaneers either struggled to stay with their opponent or they completely abandoned the running game. When these things happen, Blount is removed from the lineup due to his inefficiencies in the passing game. I don’t see them being blown out in many of their final games. Another thing I like is the weakness the remaining competition has against running backs. Primarily, I love that he faces the Carolina Panthers twice in the next five weeks.
The Panthers recently allowed Chris Johnson to look like an elite running back again. He promptly returned to 2011 form one week later by averaging a hair over one yard per attempt. This past weekend, they made Kevin Smith look like he was still setting collegiate records at Central Florida.
In Blount’s other five games, he has averaged close to five yards per attempt and has scored four times. He still ranks among the top 20 running backs in most categories. This makes him an every week starter. The only remaining game I would be concerned about comes against the Dallas Cowboys. This could easily become a game where the Cowboys force the Buccaneers to abandon the run too early.
See if you can dangle a shiny toy like Ben Tate in front of Blount’s current owner. I’d much rather take my chance with the less flashy Blount.
Hold
Percy Harvin
Week 11 Stats: 6 Rec (8 Tgts), 73 Yds, 1 TD, 5 Att, 21 Yds, 0 TDs
Finally! Percy Harvin found the end zone through a pass reception for the first time this season. He also added a rushing touchdown, but it was negated by a questionable holding call. Likely, the production will continue to be up and down, but his talent is worth holding onto. Not many players offer a dual threat like he does. In fact, in half his games, he has run the ball at least 3 times. With Adrian Peterson spraining his ankle, there’s a decent chance Harvin earns at least three rushing attempts each time out.
As a wide receiver he is hampered by the lack of support around him. He makes up for it some by being able to gain yards after the catch. He ranks third among wide receivers in this category. If he can increase his receptions total, there’s a great chance he’ll continue to slither his way into the end zone.
Unless someone blows you away with an offer, it’s best to stay put. With the Vikings finally sounding like they realize they are a bad team, maybe the offense will open up and decide to find more playing time for their most versatile weapon.
Mike Tolbert
Week 11 Stats: 3 Att, 14 Yds, 0 TDs, 5 Rec (7 Tgts), 24 Yds, 0 TDs
While the season seems to be slipping away for the San Diego Chargers, they do still have a few fantasy-friendly matchups remaining. With the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions left on the schedule, someone should be able to produce some solid statistics from the running back position. If healthy, it would likely be Ryan Mathews. Since he has had issues staying on the field, there is a chance it could be Mike Tolbert instead.
While Tolbert may never see the majority of carries, he’s worth holding onto in the case Mathews misses time again. Stay the course and hope for a big return.
Sell
RB Kevin Smith – Lions
Week 11 Stats: 16 Att, 140 Yds, 2 TDs, 4 Rec (4 Tgts), 61 Yds, 1 TD
I greatly struggled to find a good sell candidate this week, but Kevin Smith stuck out like a sore thumb. If you added him purely for depth or to keep him away from others, sell him while you can. Remember, he played the Panthers last week. Even Chris Johnson played well against the Panthers.
I decided to study up on each team’s performance against feature backs in the past five games. I was reminded how terrible the Panthers are at stopping the run. In this span, feature backs have averaged 5.42 yards per attempt and have scored a total of eight touchdowns. Also, they are surrendering 153.8 total yards per game to this group.
There has to be a more desperate team than you right now. I would strongly suggest exchanging him for someone like LeGarrette Blount, especially since Blount plays those same Panthers twice in the next five weeks.
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