Exception Report: All the touches for Todd Gurley

Welcome to the Exception Report. This series is designed to examine fantasy options and their impressive seasons, games, and/or plays. It looks for the outliers and helps understand how they are doing it and if it can continue.

Coming into the 2017 season, one area where fantasy football owners were unconcerned about Todd Gurley would be the volume of his work. Even on a floundering team in 2016, Gurley saw at least 15 touches in each of the first seven games of the season, along with seven other running backs. In 2017, only Gurley has managed the feat while also increasing his offensive touches per game for the third straight season. Below are the eight instances of 15-plus touches in the first seven games of the season for the last two years (via Pro Football Reference):

How did he get here?

Ever since coming out of Georgia, where he was seen as a foundational running back, Gurley has been the best offensive talent on an otherwise pedestrian offense. The Rams also recognize this and have actually increased his percentage of the total offensive touches. Gurley went from 36 percent of the offensive touches his rookie year (in just 13 games) to nearly 50 percent so far in 2017. During these two and a half years, the team has tried out four different quarterbacks and eight different starting wide receivers.

2017 has been an investment across the offensive skill positions for the Rams. Jared Goff, the top overall pick in 2016, has new weapons in Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods along with rookie Cooper Kupp, the team’s three top receivers in receptions and receiving yards. Rookie Gerald Everett at tight end has added a dimension along with last year’s selection of Tyler Higbee.

The last, and perhaps most important piece for Gurley, is the additions of center John Sullivan and left tackle Andrew Whitworth. They rank seventh and sixth at their respective positions in run-blocking this year compared to 76th (last) and 33rd (of 37) by their predecessors. Those increases in performance along the line makes it easier for the coaching staff to call Gurley’s number more frequently.

What has he done with the opportunities?

While Gurley had ample offensive touches in 2016 and 2017, there is a clear difference in performance this year. The aforementioned upgrades in the offense have helped Gurley in relation to defensive contact. Last year, defenders on average made first contact with Gurley one yard past the line of scrimmage. In 2017, Gurley is making it nearly two yards (1.93) before first contact, which helps explain much of the 1.1-yards-per-carry increase. It has helped Gurley as he is getting roughly 45 percent of his yards before contact compared to less than 32 percent in 2016. Other factors in his running, including his rate of missed tackles forced and percentage of yards coming from big runs have stayed constant.

The other major area of improvement is in the passing game. With Benny Cunningham gone and Lance Dunbar still on injured reserve, Gurley has also been given the bulk of the receiving work out of the backfield. Only Le’Veon Bell and Christian McCaffrey have run more pass routes as running backs than Gurley’s 168 and he has a higher yards per route (1.74, tied for 10th-best) than either of them. While Gurley was fourth in routes run last year, he is getting a higher percentage of the backfield routes run. Cunningham had another 116 routes run in 2016, higher than Malcolm Brown’s pace of 75 this year. As for his yards per route run, Gurley’s figure was significantly lower (0.98) in 2016. That is largely due to an increase in his average depth of target rising by nearly a full yard (from 0.7 to 1.6). While both those numbers do not seem high, understand that running backs generally have a short depth of target with Gurley’s 2017 number ranking 21st just behind James White.

How does it all end?

One of the more “spooky” running back numbers is 400. As in, the fear of a running back reaching 400 touches and what it means for his career. Only DeMarco Murray (2014) and Chris Johnson (2009) have eclipsed that number in the last 10 years. Overall, there have been 42 instances of 400-plus touches for a running back and none has averaged less than 100 yards from scrimmage per game.

This year, there are two players who could eclipse the mark: Bell and Gurley. Since we are focusing on Gurley, let’s stay in that lane. He is on pace for 393 touches, with 61 of those coming from receptions. That latter stat is interesting, considering his receptions-per-game average has risen by over one catch per contest for the third straight year, with Gurley’s catch rate on pace for a career-high (84 percent). This rate may not be sustainable given the influx of weapons into the offense and their increasing familiarity with Goff.

As for the rushing pace, while Gurley is second in rushing attempts, he only has one game over 25 rushes and more than 20 in four of seven games. His overall pace has him around 330 attempts or just over 20 per game, a pace that at least one running back has exceeded in 14 of the last 15 NFL seasons. This seems more sustainable and with the offensive line having success in run blocking (ranked first by PFF), it’s highly unlikely the team shies away from this strategy.

I believe the team keeps most games close with a superb defense and the best average starting position on drives in the NFL. Because of that, Gurley may not be needed in the receiving game as much to play catch up, and will see some relief from Brown in the run game, where he is more effective. Gurley should get close, around 375 touches, but falls just short.

Confidence level: 20%

What does this mean for fantasy?

Right now, Gurley is the top-scoring fantasy running back, just ahead of Kareem Hunt and Bell. He leads the NFL in total touchdowns (eight) after the first seven weeks and is second behind Hunt in total yards from scrimmage. Because Gurley doesn’t get a lot of yards from big plays — he’s more volume reliant. That said, he has just one fewer run of 15-plus yards (six) compared to all of 2016 (seven) so there is room for upside. If a few of those start to break for 60 yards instead of 20 yards, it gives Gurley some buffer if the team decides to scale back his workload.

For those who thought about trading him after his first big week (my hand is raised), it is clear that even a difficult schedule hasn’t deterred Gurley. He still has the Vikings, Titans, Cardinals, and Eagles on his schedule, all top-10 run defenses in yards per carry, as well as the Seattle Seahawks who shut Gurley down in their first meeting. Weeks 14-16 in particular (Eagles, Seahawks, Titans) will be tough for fantasy owners of Gurley as they contend for a championship. Nonetheless, Gurley is a must-start in all matchups with the volume and touchdown upside on all three downs to threaten top running back status in any given week.