The Dynasty Stock Market examines players you should buy or sell in your dynasty fantasy football league.
Perception is reality.
It is a simple phrase that has been one of the most popular ad campaigns of all time that also rings true for fantasy football. The basic premise of fantasy football is to maximize value through draft strategy or dynasty roster management while having to take in to account the perceived value of each player. Quantifying perceived value is hard to do using only statistics. Fantasy owners tend to have a short-term memory, so players coming off a sub-par season due to injury or lack of playing time still have the ability to surprise post-hype.
I decided to use average draft position (ADP) and take a look at several players who failed to meet expectations in 2010 who could slip in 2011 drafts due to a lack of perceived value.
I retrieved 2010 ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator and for comparison I’ve also included our 2011 ADP data here at PFF Fantasy. The average draft position used assumes a 12 team, PPR league with a flex starter on offense.
Here are some under-valued players to target:
QB Kevin Kolb – Eagles, Age: 26.6
2010 ADP: 64
2011 ADP: 154
What went wrong: Kevin Kolb lost the starting QB job against Green Bay in Week 1. Michael Vick then proceeded to play at a Pro Bowl level for the remainder of the season. Kolb did perform well in four spot starts in place of Vick.
2011 Outlook: It is clear to see why the Eagles will be staying with Michael Vick (0.43 fantasy points per snap) over Kevin Kolb (0.19 FP/SN). Kolb will find himself starting somewhere with a weak crop of incoming rookie quarterbacks and Philadelphia will not be able to reject any trade offer including a first round draft pick.
QB Tony Romo – Cowboys, Age: 30.9
2010 ADP: 35
2011 ADP: 57
What went wrong: Romo fractured his left clavicle and was lost for the season when fullback Chris Gronkowski missed a blocking assignment in Week 7. Romo was on pace to finish within the top-4 QBs for points scored.
2011 Outlook: Romo, now fully healthy, is ready to crack the top-5 QBs again. He is going as the seventh QB off board in early drafts. With the emergence of Dez Bryant, expect the Cowboys to favor the passing game this season given the inconsistency their running backs have shown.
RB Ryan Mathews – Chargers, Age: 23.5
2010 ADP: 14
2011 ADP: 35
What went wrong: Durability issues, fumbling issues, poor pass protection (-2.7) and the emergence of Mike Tolbert were just some of the hurdles Ryan Mathews faced in 2010.
2011 Outlook: Mathews was arguably the biggest fantasy disappointment of 2010 (next to Randy Moss) based on his ADP. Norv Turner did not trust him in many pass protection situations and when he did, Mathews disappointed. Tolbert ‘s 11 rushing TD inflated his fantasy value; however, it was Mathews that had more fantasy points scored based on snaps played (0.48 to 0.47). Taking into account our own Mike Clay’s favorite topic of regression, Tolbert will certainly regress back to the mean and it will be Mathews that gets more opportunities in 2011.
RB Jahvid Best – Lions, Age: 22.2
2010 ADP: 39
2011 ADP: 27
What went wrong: Jahvid Best seemed to literally hit a wall after his 3 touchdown performance against the Eagles in Week 2. Best was slowed with turf toe injuries to both feet and was ineffective for the remainder of the season. Also like many rookies, Best struggled in pass protection (-1.3).
2011 Outlook: Jahvid Best has all the talent to become a Brian Westbrook clone but needs to show more durability. It is almost a certainty that Detroit will add a complement RB in the draft to assist Best. Fantasy owners have been willing to draft Best higher this year than in 2010 despite the perception that he is injury prone. If Best does slip in your draft, know that the Lions targeted him 12.89% of the time he was on the field or 23.27% he ran a pass pattern. PPR Special.
RB Shonn Greene – Jets, Age: 25.6
2010 ADP: 24
2011 ADP: 55
What went wrong: Shonn Greene (370 snaps) was supposed to be the lead back with LaDainian Tomlinson (711) as the complementary RB, but their roles were reversed.
2011 Outlook: Despite the discrepancy in playing time, Greene (0.31) had more fantasy points per snap than Tomlinson (0.30) did in 2010 without the benefit of receiving many catches out of the backfield. Look for Greene to earn more playing time at the expense of Tomlinson.
RB Pierre Thomas – Saints, Age: 26.3
2010 ADP: 24
2011 ADP: 69
What went wrong: Pierre Thomas missed 9 games with a high ankle sprain and then returned for spot duty late in the season.
2011 Outlook: With a new 4-year contract in hand, Thomas can begin to erase the bad memories of 2010. Thomas’ production in a limited role placed him in the top-10 at the position (0.40 FP/SN) and he should be able to live up to his 2010 expectations if he can stay healthy.
WR Randy Moss – Free Agent, Age: 34.1
2010 ADP: 9
2011 ADP: 150
What went wrong: What didn’t go wrong for Moss. He was traded from New England, cut from Minnesota and couldn’t crack the lineup in Tennessee. It is hard to imagine that Moss failed to score 100 PPR points despite being a first round pick and not missing a single game for any of his teams.
2011 Outlook: Randy Moss represents the ultimate flier this year. The perception of Moss is that he is washed up, and it is startling to see his ADP drop 12 rounds in just one year, especially as a first round player last year. Terrell Owens has shown that future hall of famers over the age of 34 can still have plenty of value and Moss should be no exception. He may be a head case, but he didn’t forget how to play football and will be motivated by one more big payday on the open market.
WR Michael Crabtree – 49ers, Age: 23.5
2010 ADP: 43
2011 ADP: 65
What went wrong: Michael Crabtree was supposed to blossom into a #1 fantasy wide receiver in his second year in the league but poor quarterback play and multiple offensive coordinators made that ascension difficult.
2011 Outlook: Jim Harbaugh is installing the west coast offense which will play to Crabtree’s strengths of turning short passes into solid yards after catch (5.1). It is tough to justify a breakout season based on his lack of production to this point in career, but it is too early to write Crabtree off as a bust at only 24 years old when the season begins.
WR Mike Sims-Walker – Free Agent, Age: 26.4
2010 ADP: 56
2011 ADP: 150
What went wrong: Sims-Walker was held without a catch in Week 1 and 4 and nearly had all of his production in Weeks 2 and 8 (18 receptions for 258 yards and 2 TD). Sims-Walker was wildly inconsistent and missed time with a knee injury.
2011 Outlook: Word out of Jacksonville is that they are going to let Sims-Walker hit the open market. While Sims-Walker does have faults and may be better suited as the second option in a passing attack, he will find a few suitors whenever free agency is allowed to begin.
WR Steve Smith – Giants, Age: 25.9
2010 ADP: 34
2011 ADP: 72
What went wrong: Smith missed time with a pectoral injury and later was shut down for the season to undergo microfracture surgery to repair damage in his knee. Smith caught 48 passes in 9 games played.
2011 Outlook: By all indications, the Giants want to sign Smith to a new contract but his knee injury will give them pause. Smith is considered one of the top PPR wide receivers in the league (8.6 targets per game) when healthy and the sixth round could prove to be a huge value if his knee checks out.
TE Jermichael Finley – Packers, Age: 24.0
2010 ADP: 44
2011 ADP: 48
What went wrong: Finley was lost for the season with a knee injury on his second play from scrimmage in Week 5. He was on pace to finish as the top fantasy tight end (0.27 FP/SN) before the injury.
2011 Outlook: The Packers are counting on Finley to make a full recovery before the start of the season, and his addition back to the passing game could lessen the damage if James Jones leaves in free agency. Finley is getting drafted in nearly the same range as last year despite the concerns about his knee surgery.
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