Fantasy: Buy or Sell — Wide Receivers: David Nelson, Nate Burleson, Emmanuel Sanders

There's a special kind of joy and pain that punctuates owners in three wide receiver fantasy leagues. It's an ideal situation for those who are waiver wire-obsessed (like myself) but can be excruciating for those who want to take a more casual approach to their fantasy football affairs.

Either way, there's little chance that a guy you drafted in August as your No. 3 receiver will hold that spot for the entirety of the season. Things change every week that affect the value of receivers who were less than afterthoughts, but if you come into the whole operation prepared, you can snag a guy who makes the leap from your “fingers-crossed-I-hope-I-get-five-points-out-of-him-today” receiver to a sure-thing No. 2 starter on a weekly basis.

Here, I take a look at three No. 3 fantasy receivers from 2011 and see if they'll be worth your attention in the upcoming season. Let's find out if you should grab—or take a pass on—David Nelson, Nate Burleson and Emmanuel Sanders.

David Nelson, Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills had a strong start to their 2011 season, winning four of their first six games before embarking on a seven-game losing streak that just happened to coincide with quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick's contract extension. The 6'5″ slot receiver David Nelson seemed primed to have a breakout second season with the loss of Lee Evans, and he did show some promise early on, especially during Weeks 2 and 3 in which he had 83 and 84 receiving yards, respectively, and one touchdown.

David Nelson, 2011
Targets Rec Yds YAC YAC/R TD
Best: Week 2 12 10 83 30 3.0 1
Season 94 61 658 212 3.5 5

 

Alas, that's as good as things got for Nelson in 2011 as both his and the Bills' receiving games dropped off considerably. Nelson never had 80 yards again and had just 60 or more yards just twice, ending the year with a total of 61 receptions for 658 yards and five scores. Despite Nelson's size, he couldn't match it with speed, and it showed in his struggles both to create separation and his 3.5 yards after catch average on the year.

Speed's not something you can teach a receiver, and all the good hands in the world won't make up for a lack of touchdowns. He's a tall end zone target, but the Bills need to march down the field and then feel comfortable passing for scores in order for him to be a factor. If you're in a deeper league, Nelson might be an alright late-round fantasy addition for depth purposes only. In more orthodox leagues, I'd say to stay away and grab him off of the waiver wire later on if necessary.

Buy or Sell? Sell.

Nate Burleson, Detroit Lions

At first glance, Detroit Lions wide receiver Nate Burleson has all the hallmarks of an ideal No. 2 wide receiver, let alone a No. 3. He has the benefit of playing alongside the top fantasy wideout, Calvin Johnson, and thus seeing passes thrown his way when Johnson was too blanketed by coverage to get open.

Nate Burleson, 2011
Targets Rec Yds YAC YAC/R TD
Best: Week 11 7 7 63 41 5.9 1
Season 115 77 807 432 5.5 3

2011 marked the best year, in terms of number of receptions, in Burleson's nine (now 10) year career, but the fact he managed just 807 yards on 77 catches (including one playoff game) is a hallmark of a receiver who is on the declining end of his career arc. Burleson should see an uptick in targets in 2012 as defenses further key in on Johnson, and his 67 percent catch rate indicates he will pull down enough of them to make a fantasy impact.

One thing to watch out for is the ascendency of fellow receiver Titus Young. Young had 48 receptions for 607 yards and six scores in his rookie 2011 season and should only become more heavily involved in the Lions' passing game in 2012. I honestly believe that Young will ultimately take Burleson's spot on the depth chart, so keep that in mind as fantasy draft time approaches. Burleson might be a good later-round add worth a start as a No. 3 receiver in the beginning of the season, but don't sleep on Young; I don't think Burleson will be a factor for the entire duration of the season.

Buy or Sell? Buy, with Reservations.

Emmanuel Sanders, Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders' ultimately fantasy value has yet to really be determined, as it's unknown whether the team will be able to keep restricted free agent Mike Wallace on the roster this year. If Wallace leaves, Sanders' apparent value increases, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will stay that way. Veteran receiver Jerricho Cotchery would likely stay in Pittsburgh for another year and I fully believe the Steelers will also pick up a receiver in the draft, considering the depth of talent at the position this year.

Emmanuel Sanders, 2011
Targets Rec Yds YAC YAC/R TD
Best: Week 7 7 5 46 35 7.0 1
Season 48 28 369 185 6.6 2

 

Sanders lost his spot on the depth chart last season to Antonio Brown, a must-have fantasy receiver this year. Should Wallace leave, Brown will be the Steelers' No. 1 target, but as I said above, that doesn't guarantee that Sanders goes back to No. 2. There's no doubt that Sanders is fast, and he may have simply befallen the fate of a good receiver in the right place at the wrong time. It didn't help him much that he missed much of the second half of the 2011 season with injury issues and a personal tragedy.

Right now, the Steelers are likely looking for Sanders to step up should they lose Wallace, but his presence as a No. 2 receiver on that offense makes him just a No. 3 option in the fantasy game. If Wallace stays, Sanders will be useful in teams that count return yardage, as he's set to take over those duties in 2012, but should only be rostered up in deeper leagues. Otherwise, he might be a waiver wire pickup at some point, but not worth a draft pick.

Buy or Sell? Buy with Reservations, if Wallace goes; Sell if Wallace stays

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