Fantasy: Beware the Fallacy of the Sunk Cost

Whether you know it or not, you have had experiences with sunk costs even if you do not own your own business or work in finance. It's a simple premise that we encounter in our lives everyday. For example, say you meet a nice lady (or guy for you fantasy football women out there, or whatever your preference is) and you decide to go out on a date. The first date goes well and you and your new lady friend start seeing each more regularly. You go out for dinner, to the movies and maybe even the zoo. Along the way, you probably bought your new pal flowers or other nice gifts and everything is going great. Inevitably, though, at some point you decide that your new lady friend is not suitable to be a long-term lady friend. Who knows why, it could be any number of things. Maybe she threw her cell phone at you or can't cook. Whatever the reason, once you've decided that you no longer want to be with your lady friend, you break things off, even if it means she lights fire to your car. The key here is that you would not stay with the guy/gal just because you invested some previous amount of time or money in the relationship. The relationship is a sunk cost, you cut your losses and you move on.

The same situation can happen in fantasy football. You draft a player really high and then he doesn’t perform at the level you thought he would and now you’re stuck with him, kind of like that crazy lady friend we talked about above. The difference is that fantasy owners will fall victim to the “fallacy of the sunk cost.” In a nutshell, you justify not letting an underachiever go because of where you drafted him. A lot of times it sounds like this, “I can’t make that trade! He was my first round pick and that other guy was a third round pick! That just doesn’t make sense!” The fact of the matter, however, is that it does make sense if you’re getting a better player! Think about it, would you reject an Arian Foster for Ray Rice trade if it was offered to you today? Of course you would! Foster is a better player and it does not matter at all where he was drafted.

Below is a list of players I think you should try and dump on another owner if you can, or drop altogether if there is even a semi-attractive option in free agency. Remember, it doesn’t remember how much you spent in an auction or what round you drafted the player – if there’s someone else that you think will be better, do the deal.

Shonn Greene: Green was drafted as a top-12 running back in ESPN leagues prior to the season. Through eight weeks, he has not come close to meeting the expectations of fantasy owners that spent high picks on him. In fact, Greene has been outrushed (new word) by Mike Tolbert and BenJarvus Green-Ellis to this point in the season and has scored just one touchdown. Greene’s rushing production is not eveb his biggest red flag, however, as he has played in more than 35% of the Jets’ offensive snaps in just two games this season and has accounted for just 41.3% of the team’s rushing attempts. I keep hearing that Greene is going to have a monster December, but I don’t see how we can predict this when his snap percentage has barely approached 30% the last three weeks, and that’s after Rex Ryan said he wanted to get him more involved in the offense. It does not matter that you spent a high second round pick on Greene –  you should trade him for whatever you can get at this point in the season considering the lack of opportunity he’s received.

Randy Moss: I think Moss has been the second biggest bust of the season behind Shonn Greene because fantasy owners were counting on him for 1,000 yards and to score 10+ touchdowns, like he had each of the past three seasons. Moss and Andre Johnson were sure things at the wide receiver position, and that’s why they were worth such high fantasy picks as wide receivers. To this point, however, Moss has been terrible en route to a -6.6 pass rating. His fantasy value to this point has been salvaged by five touchdown receptions and some will argue that he’s still valuable because he is such a threat to score; I’m not disagreeing with you, but Mike Wallace is basically the same player right now and you did not draft him in the late first or second rounds of your fantasy draft. Even Moss’ recent move to Tennessee is not likely to improve his fantasy performances. I think Vince Young is a fine quarterback, but there’s a reason that Kenny Britt, the man Moss will be replacing in the Titan offense for the next four weeks at least, only had one game with more than 41 yards receiving.  There’s no denying Moss’ impact on how defenses prepare for whatever team he’s playing for (Bill Belichek decided to put a man over the top of Moss on just about every play in week eight) which will open things up for his new teammates, but I’m not convinced in any way that Moss can be a reliable fantasy receiver for the remainder of the season and I’d suggest selling him now while people believe he’ll be more motivated, and therefore more productive, in Tennessee than in Minnesota, which sounds awfully familiar…

Jonathan Stewart: At this point in the year you are all well aware of Stewart’s lack of production (178 yards rushing, 2.8 YPC, -5.1 rush rating) but you might not remember that Stewart was drafted ahead of Antonio Gates, Arian Foster, Hakeem Nicks, LaDanian Tomlinson and Joseph Addai, to name a few. I cannot place all of the blame on Stewart’s shoulders as the Panthers are without Jeff Otah and for some reason have thrown the ball more than they’ve run it (44% run rate). Regardless, Stewart is not startable in 10 and 12 team leagues even as the Panthers starting running back. He ran for just 30 yards on 14 carries in week 8 against the Rams, and should be dumped or traded.

CJ Spiller: Spiller generated a lot of buzz after an impressive preseason and had an average ESPN draft position of 62, which put in the sixth round of 10-team leagues. Fantasy owners hoped that his talent would help him win the starting running back job over incumbent starter Fred Jackson and former first rounder Marshawn Lynch. Of course, that has not come to fruition and Spiller has actually seen a decrease in carries since Lynch was sent packing to Seattle (Spiller has seen the field in just 20.8% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps in weeks five through eight). I would apologize to all of you that spent a high pick on Spiller, but it’s not my fault. Unload him now.

Felix Jones and Marion Barber: I’m guilty of buying into the Dallas Cowboy offense prior to the start of the season. I firmly believed that each back would be startable in 10 and 12 team leagues with Barber getting 10-12 touches a game including goal line carries, while Jones would get more touches (15-18) and have the opportunity to gain big yards between the 20-yardlines. Through eight weeks, however, the two backs have combined for one touchdown and 483 yards, which is just 20 yards more than Peyton Hillis has by himself. Even with Jon Kitna at quarterback in week eight against the Jaguars, neither back approached 50 yards rushing (yeh, read it again: 50 yards!).

Ray Rice: I’ll admit that it is a bit harsh to call Rice a sunk cost, but after amassing over  2,300 yards from scrimmage (22.7 overall PFF rating) in 2009, Rice has not lived up to his top-5 draft status in 2010. Rice is on pace to finish well below his 2010 totals and has been targeted far less in the passing game than last year, when he had 87 receptions. Rice still has value, but not as a top-five running back. I think you could trade him for Lesean McCoy, who doesn’t have the name value but also isn’t losing goal line carries to Willis McGahee while giving you the versatility that you wanted when you drafted Rice.

Wes Welker: Randy Moss’ impact on the wide receiver that lines up next to him is almost undeniable.

As you can see below, without Moss, Welker’s production is actually less than that of Danny Amendola, who is a similar receiver to Welker. With the numbers that Welker has put up since Moss was traded, he’s hardly startable in standard scoring formats and considering that his catches per game have dropped to below five, he is a risk in PPR formats as well. Welker was actually as the 16^th wide receiver chosen, on average, in ESPN drafts in August, but has not produced as such since his week one outing when he scored two touchdowns and has been especially disappointing in the weeks since Randy Moss’ departure.