Quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers are the sexy positions that everyone loves talking about. Individual defensive players are an emerging part of fantasy football that we at Pro Football Focus have also taken the time to examine. Sometimes forgotten in the fantasy talks are the tight ends.
The biggest debate at one point was if Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez should get picked first. Now that Gonzalez has been on the decline in the past few years and a number of young tight ends have emerged, the tight end position has become increasingly interesting in the past few years.
Because of that, I have decided to become the first two way writer on the PFF staff in order to take a look at a number of the tight ends in 2011. I will look at a division a week for the next eight weeks to see which names you should know for your fantasy drafts, and which players you should avoid. Today we start with the AFC East
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The Best of the Best: Dustin Keller, New York Jets
Current 2011 Projections: 98 TA, 59 Rec., 704 yards, 5 TD
Analysis: Over the past three years Keller has been a prominent part of the Jets offense after being drafted in the first round in 2008. While his PFF ratings haven’t been as strong as a starting tight end should, out of all the tight ends in the division we can be most sure he will be a full time starter and therefore get a fair chunk of targets which therefore results in catches and yards.
While he rarely has a great game, in 2010 he had at least four targets in every game. With the uncertainty of Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards, its possible Keller could be an even bigger part of the offense in 2011. This division isn’t very strong at tight end so Keller is at best a low TE1 or high backup TE in a 12 team league.
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Moving On Up: Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots
Current 2011 Projections: 68 TA, 49 Rec., 636 yards, 7 TD
Analysis: Drafted in the second round of the 2010 draft, Gronkowski had a huge game against the Steelers in Week 10 with 72 yards and three touchdowns. From then on the number of targets he saw was very inconsistent until the last two games of the regular season and the playoffs. In that time he saw 23 targets, 14 catches, 221 yards and three touchdowns.
His +7.1 pass rating in 2010 is enough to think the Patriots should be using this weapon more, and with enough of a chance he is capable of being a TE1 in most leagues. What’s holding him back is we don’t know how much playing time he will have next year. If it becomes clear he will be the starter and see most of the time, then he is a name you’ll need to know.
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On The Way Down: Aaron Hernandez, New England Patriots
Current 2011 Projections: 63 TA, 44 Rec., 549 yards, 5 TD
Analysis: In his rookie year, Hernandez started as the Patriots main tight end. A 101 yard game in week 2 against the Jets made Hernandez a popular waiver wire pickup. He didn’t disappoint fantasy owners early in the season, because from week 3 to week 9 he averaged a little less than 50 yards a game.
The rise of Gronkowski coincided with the fall of Hernandez. After Gronkowski’s big game Hernandez, the number of targets Hernandez saw went from 5.75 per game to 2.72 per game. While he is still a good receiving tight end and is still likely to see a decent number of targets in 2011, he didn’t play as well as Gronkowski in 2010, mainly due to Hernandez nine drops, a lower yards per catch, and a lower catch percentage . People will still remember his good start the 2010 campaign, but I don’t see him matching it in 2011.
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A Name To Remember: Shawn Nelson, Buffalo Bills
Current 2011 Projections: 24 TA, 18 Rec., 164 yards, 1 TD
Analysis: In 2010, Buffalo was pretty much a fantasy wasteland, and this was even truer at tight end. All of their tight ends combined had 187 yards. It’s unlikely that Buffalo will use tight ends significantly more in 2011, but If any of their players has a chance to break out and be relevant in the fantasy world, it’s Shawn Nelson.
He saw a bit of action in 2009, but only had 17 catches to show for it. He started the 2010 under suspension and then missed the last six games, leaving him with just five games he played in. The rest of the tight ends on the roster have shown they don’t have what it takes to be a major factor at tight end, while Nelson is still an unknown.
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