As they have all season, Calvin Johnson and Wes Welker delivered in Week 16. It felt only fitting that the two biggest receiving stars of 2011 should help the Lions and Patriots secure big reality wins while carrying their fantasy owners on championship weekend. I hope many of you are still basking in the glory of winning your league.
While most championships have now been decided, PFF is the place for those already plotting strategy for fantasy's second season. Knowing stretch run target splits will help you choose the best lineups for the elimination-style formats yet to come.
And for the truly dedicated, it’s never too early to start planning your title defense. Next year's breakout candidates just might be buried in the data from Week 16.
Pass Routes Run
As teams battled for the final playoff positions, a flurry of receivers eclipsed the forty route barrier in Week 16. Santonio Holmes and Plaxico Burress led the way with 62 and 60 routes respectively, two of the highest numbers on the season. They combined for less than one yard per route as the Jets' passing game continues to struggle.
Duos from the Falcons, Patriots, and Cardinals were next on the board as their teams frantically tried to come from behind. Wes Welker (51) and Deion Branch (49) helped New England’s comeback succeed, while Larry Fitzgerald (49) and Andre Roberts (48) saw theirs fall short. Julio Jones (56) and Roddy White (52) put on a target blitz in garbage time.
At the other end of the spectrum, Mike Wallace (22), Steve Smith (18), and Percy Harvin (12) did not see the type of usage their owners were hoping for in the championship game.
Targets Per Route
Brandon Lloyd’s route numbers are down over the last month, but he is still being heavily targeted per opportunity. His 41% target rate led the big names in Week 15. Antonio Brown (40%) was another target magnet and could be undervalued next year due to a low touchdown percentage.
For those desperate or courageous enough to play Denarius Moore in the finals, he shook off his Week 15 dud and rewarded owners with a long TD. The better sign for his 2012 prospects was a 39% target rate.
Dwayne Bowe (35%) and Marques Colston (34%) are two recognizable names who could be values next season. Colston really came on over the second half of 2011 and seems to be benefiting from the attention paid to Jimmy Graham. The Chiefs face a turbulent off-season, but Bowe should bounce back in a healthier Chiefs offense. While many focus on the return of Jamaal Charles, PFF's 2010 TE rankings suggest Tony Moeaki’s rookie season was very similar to that of Rob Gronkowski.
Many owners rode Laurent Robinson into their title games, but the early injury to Tony Romo finally ended his magical run. His 6% target rate led to only 5 yards receiving.
Pass Routes Per Snap
Last week Advanced Targets recommended playing Malcom Floyd against the Lions' decimated secondary, and Norv Turner helped out by using him in patterns on 78% of his snaps. With Vincent Jackson hobbled, Rivers locked on to Floyd for 12 targets, 95 yards, and a TD.
Dez Bryant (78%) and Jabar Gaffney (72%) each hauled in 6 passes with their teams going pass-heavy when they were on the field.
While Torrey Smith’s 39% route rate makes sense within the context of his game against the Browns, it’s much harder to reconcile the usage of Demaryius Thomas (49%), Darrius Heyward-Bey (48%), and Dwayne Bowe (47%). With a playoff berth on the line, the entire AFC West played not to lose on Sunday and emphasized just how far the division is from fielding a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Yards Per Pass Route
Victor Cruz (6.07) and Jordy Nelson (5.23) finished out their fantasy seasons with aplomb. When looking at the breakdowns of 2011 champions, they will be among the leaders in percent owned.
Brandon Marshall turned double digit targets into 156 yards and a 4.33 mark. His performance with Matt Moore at the helm should send his ADP back into the elite tier next season.
Stevie Johnson (3.41) fought through nagging injuries and the Bills' collapse to end his season on a high note. Although he met the expectations of his draft slot this year, his slip back into relative obscurity could make him a mild post-hype bargain in 2012.
It’s almost always a mistake to take Week 16 SOS into account when drafting players, but a matchup with Darrelle Revis might be the exception. Hakeem Nicks (0.71) completed an occasionally scintillating but often frustrating campaign with a 20-yard clunker.
You can forgive Eric Decker if he’s hoping a team like the Jaguars makes Denver a Tebow offer they can’t refuse. Decker hasn’t helped his own cause in recent weeks, but his line of zero yards on 33 routes serves to underline the current futility of the Broncos’ passing game.
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