On a weekend in which Calvin Johnson went supernova, Roddy White’s Thursday night performance was a fitting hors d’oeuvres. No receiver with 10-plus targets has gotten anywhere near the 57% target rate he notched against the Jaguars. Any owners who survived his early season malaise were rewarded with 16 targets, 135 yards, and 2 TDs.
Johnson and White are always automatic starters, but decisions at WR3 will be magnified on championship weekend. PFF is the only place on the internet to get snap data, pass route breakdowns, and advanced target splits. If you're the underdog this week and have to hit on your flex position, you've come to the right place.
I hope you had half as much fun reading this column as I did writing it this season. Good luck to everyone in your title games.
Pass Routes Run
Andre Roberts has picked up the pace with John Skelton at QB. With Beanie Wells banged up – and far below replacement level as a result – all three Cardinals saw extensive playing time on Sunday. Roberts led the way with 10 targets and 49 routes. Early Doucet was still a factor with 8 targets on 41 routes.
It would take great courage to play Brad Smith coming off of two dismal fantasy efforts, but his 49 routes matched David Nelson for the team lead. Derek Hagan (44) also saw more playing time than the ailing Stevie Johnson (33).
Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin saw their route numbers go in the tank during Baltimore's recent Ray Rice-fueled winning streak. They re-emerged out of necessity on Sunday night with 43 and 42 routes respectively. Smith’s 7 targets, 77 yards, and a TD dwarfed Boldin’s 3 targets for 51 yards. If you don’t believe Joe Flacco is one of the NFL’s worst QBs – as PFF’s premium stats suggest – then Smith is a screaming buy in dynasty.
The same could be said for Titus Young. Although his 21 yards on 10 targets and 42 routes would be a disastrous showing if not for the short TD, Young is again seeing similar opportunities to Nate Burleson (46). He could be a Top 15 option next year opposite the indomitable Megatron.
Damian Williams continues to lead the Titans in routes (56) but is relatively useless (0.27 yards per route) with Matt Hasselbeck under center. In a pitched battle to make the strangest personnel decision of the season, Mike Munchak’s willingness to ignore the rising star of Jake Locker sits right there with pretty much everything that transpires in Minnesota. In related news, Percy Harvin ran 17 routes in a blowout loss.
Despite defeating the Bears somewhat handily, the Seahawks continued their shenanigans at WR. On pace to have the best season of any undrafted rookie WR in NFL history, Doug Baldwin ran only 17 routes, four fewer than the decidedly underwhelming Ben Obomanu.
Targets Per Pass Route
Demaryius Thomas continued his rapid emergence on Sunday. His 116-yard game came as a result of a 36% target rate. Thomas could be next year’s version of Jimmy Graham. Although he's likely to be a fixture on sleeper lists next season, Thomas will still have upside even as his ADP climbs and climbs.
Speaking of emerging stars, A.J. Green was targeted on 33% of his routes despite playing through a shoulder separation.
The recent performance of Dez Bryant offers a counterpoint to Green’s dominance. Targeted on only 14% of his routes, Bryant’s future upside may be in a Greg Jennings or Marques Colston type of role. With all of his options, Romo excels in taking what the defense gives him.
Jordy Nelson saw extensive action for one of the few times this season but garnered only four targets on 38 routes. He failed to catch a pass against either of the Chiefs' starting corners. A fixture in this space for his awesome yet patently unsustainable production, Nelson could prove to be one of the most overdrafted players in 2012.
Pass Routes Per Snap
Lee Evans (86%), Devin Aromashodu (84%), and Mario Manningham (84%) were among the leaders in pass routes per snap. They struggled to the tune of 86 yards on 90 routes. Evans did not record a catch on four targets.
Greg Little’s breakout performance saw him only run routes on 51% of his snaps. Although playing for the Browns will continue to be a mitigating influence, Little’s excessive and unsustainable drop rate could make him a nice value in 2012.
In what should have been an intriguing villain versus villain matchup, the Jets got waxed in a battle of the karma-challenged. Despite facing huge deficits most of the afternoon, Plaxico Burress and Santonio Holmes combined to run routes on less than 50% of their snaps. Peyton Manning rumors have mostly concentrated on Washington to this point, but New York might be a better fit from a narrative perspective. Although they’re currently promoting Mark Sanchez as the Once and Future Quarterback, the Jets have essentially capitulated in the passing game.
Yards Per Pass Route
As defenses increasingly scheme to take away Graham and Colston, Lance Moore (4.33) has emerged as a perfect WR3 play in the Saints weekly game of pick your poison.
Malcom Floyd (4.8) occupied a similar role for the Chargers, an even more impressive accomplishment considering he shredded the Ravens' vaunted pass defense. He’s a virtual must play in the finals as San Diego squares off against a hobbled Detroit squad that allowed 4.31 yards per route to Darrius Heyward-Bey.
With his route numbers rising, Eric Decker seemed like a lock against the Patriots, but his season continued to spiral downward since Tebow’s insertion. With only two targets, he managed less than one yard per route (0.76).
Denarius Moore (0.62) was clearly not 100% on Sunday, but he would have met fantasy expectations had Carson Palmer not badly overthrown him in the end zone. The Chiefs are one of the least consistent squads in the NFL, but Moore owners cannot feel good after seeing what Flowers and Carr did to Green Bay.
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