Drop Percentage Study (Part Two)

In the final installment of a two-part feature, Pro Football Focus' Khaled Elsayed looks at the catching success of tight ends to see which players are dropping the most catchable balls. The tight end position is one of the most complicated in the game, with expectations of blocking like a lineman and catching like a wide receiver, so a key component for all tight ends is making sure they catch and secure balls thrown their way. Let's see how they fared…

It's not easy being a tight end. They want you to block. They want you to catch. They want you to run when you get the ball secured. Not asking a lot, is it? Although the argument will go on in terms of how to weight the effectiveness of the different facets of the tight end position, an imperative ability for any tight end is his ability to catch the ball. Otherwise they may as well be an offensive lineman, right (and by that same line of thought, they need to be able to block, otherwise they may as well be a wide receiver)? So today we useour Drop Percentage to see which tight ends are dropping the greatest percentage of catchable balls thrown their way. There is some subjectivity in classing a “dropped pass,” but the uniformed standards we use at Pro Football Focus at least allow us to consistently measure a drop as when a receiver gets “his hands on a ball you would reasonably expect to be caught,” as according to PFF Lead Analyst Ben Stockwell.

As for the formula used — it's a very simple one (with a qualifying minimum of 25 balls a receiver got his hands to):

[Dropped Passes/(Dropped Passes + Receptions)] x 100 = Drop Percentage

There's no real better way to start an article on tight end drops than looking at one of the most polarizing players in the NFL — Vernon Davis. This site has come in for a lot of criticism for how it has graded Davis, with fans and media alike in feeling that his low grade doesn't fairly represent his impact as a receiver. Although Davis has a huge impact on how the 49ers offense operates (as shown by his touchdown numbers), this impact isn't always positive. He led tight ends in drops (13) and managed to finish with the fifth-highest drop percentage at his position. The most interesting thing for some of us here at Pro Football Focus is that there are four other players who finished with a higher percentage than Davis, whose hands are among the worst at the tight end position and go awkwardly with his freakish athleticism.

So who were those guys who finished with higher percentages than Davis'? Well the highest percentage belongs to Randy McMichael, who really struggled in St Louis. He got his hands to 41 balls but dropped an astonishing 17.07 percent of them. With McMichael not the greatest blocking tight end in the league, it was no surprise that the Rams have seemed to make little or no effort to re-sign him. Indeed, this may be the last year that McMichael appears on the list given the lack of interest in him.

Behind him is a far more interesting case. Seen as a sure-thing prospect that could contribute immediately, things didn't go quite that way for Brandon Pettigrew. In addition to having difficulty with his blocking and not being trusted with a full-time workload, Pettigrew dropped six passes from the 37 catchable balls thrown his way. Teammate Will Heller wasn't much better with the seventh-highest percentage after dropping 12.12 percent of catchable balls. As with any rookie, you would imagine/hope he would improve entering his second season because it could become a concern for the Lions otherwise.

Redskins fans must be intrigued at the options they will get from their tight ends with the combination of Chris Cooley and Fred Davis, but although Davis flashed some playmaking skills, he was also guilty of nine drops, giving him the third-highest drop percentage. That's in stark contrast to Cooley, who saw limited action but enough to finish with the fifth-lowest DP. The NFC East in all is a division stacked with talent at the tight end position, with Kevin Boss only dropping one pass all year, Brent Celek having a Drop Percentage lower than 10 and Jason Witten finishing in the lowest 15 with his drop percentage while catching 94 balls.

New Patriots acquisition Alge Crumpler isn't the threat with the ball he once was (as demonstrated with his feeble 8.2 yards per reception) but in addition to excellent blocking he brings with him great hands, as demonstrated by his one drop last season. With their bevy of other options, the Patriots aren't big users of their tight ends in the receiving game, but it's good to know that when they throw it at Crumpler he'll catch those catchable balls. The Carolina Panthers use Jeff King in much the same way. King was the only guy not to drop any passes, although his 25 receptions just barely qualified him for consideration and he only managed 8 yards per reception. At least it offers some insight as to why the horribly inconsistent King maintained the starting gig in Carolina as the levels of his run blocking fluctuated.

Some guys who haven't moved but could find themselves doing so present some interesting data. Greg Olsen and Tony Scheffler look miscast, Scheffler in the offensive scheme he spent last year in and Olsen the one he's about to enter. But they displayed great hands in dropping just two passes apiece. It seems quite clear that the current regime doesn't overly value Scheffler for one reason or another, as it persists with the underwhelming Daniel Graham, who — in addition to finishing with the fourth-highest drop percentage — just isn't a very good blocker. It's another Josh McDaniels issue that splits opinion on a coach who must now be falling into the enigmatic category. As for Olsen — Mike Martz will have to adapt his offense to make best use of a guy who dropped two of his 61 catchable passes.

We'll end with some talk about some of the bigger names, and while Dallas Clark finished middle of the pack after his seven drops, future Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez performed as expected. He was only credited with three drops for a superb 3.49 Drop Percentage that is another in a long list of reasons why Gonzalez will go down as one of the greatest tight ends to ever play the game. Only five other players finished with a more impressive Drop Percentage than Gonzalez and none of them was Antonio Gates. Gates certainly brings a lot to the table as a receiving tight end (his yardage after the catch and the missed tackles he forces help him stand out from the pack) but he has some problems with his hands, as evidenced by a rather pedestrian 8.14 Drop Percentage. For as bad a blocker he is, it's could almost be considered more concerning for those who line up against Gates that he still has room to improve.
Top 10 Drop Percentage

Bottom 10 Drop Percentage