Premium Content Sign Up

2022 NFL Draft Player Comparisons: Memphis WR Calvin Austin III has to overcome his college production

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Memphis Tigers wide receiver Calvin Austin III (4) carries the ball past Temple Owls cornerback Cameron Ruiz (19) in the second half at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

Comparing current NFL draft prospects to those of years past is standard procedure in draft evaluation, though most comparisons are built on the memory recall and subjective opinion of the particular evaluator.

In this series of articles, I will compare the 2022 draft prospects to prior years and pick out the most similar comps with a clearly delineated and quantifiable method.

PFF data scientist Eric Eager has done tremendous work building college-to-pro projections, which are built off the robust college data we’ve collected since 2014 and have been applied to exercises like building an “analytics” mock draft. In this analysis, I will use some of our advanced stats for comparison but primarily rely on traditional stats to go back further and compare the 2022 prospects to draft classes since 2006.

METHODOLOGY

The comps below were derived from a two-step process. First, I converted all the most statistically relevant stats and measurables to percentiles based on the thousands of prospects who have entered the NFL since 2006.

The matching features were transformed by principal component analysis (PCA). I found the closest statistically comparable players by the Euclidean distance between the players' principle components, listed in the top 10 below.

For draft position, I’m using an estimate based on the mock data collected at GrindingTheMocks.com. The college statistical metrics for PCA are career market shares for receiving yards and receiving touchdowns, best-season market shares for receiving yards, yards per route run and yards per reception. 

I also included the most important workout metrics for NFL and draft position for wide receivers: weight, 40-yard dash time and vertical jump. I’m taking the best number from either the prospects' NFL Scouting Combine or pro-day performances. If the 40-yard dash time or vertical jump are missing, I estimate them based on historical modeling with weight and available other workout metrics.

MOST COMPARABLE PLAYERS

Calvin Austin III announced his arrival with one of the best NFL combine performances of the class, posting the fastest 40-yard dash time at 4.32 seconds, jumping 11-feet, 3-inches in the broad and 39 inches for the vertical.

Austin is now commonly mocked in the second round, even though any Day 2 selection seemed inconceivable even a few months ago.

The Memphis product's lack of production is a red flag, especially for an older player who redshirted and still exhausted four years of eligibility. Austin posted over 1,000 yards receiving his final two seasons but never averaged more than 100 yards per game in a college season.

DOMINATE FANTASY FOOTBALL & BETTING WITH AI-POWERED DATA & TOOLS TRUSTED BY ALL 32

Unlimited Fantasy League Sync
Fantasy Start/Sit Line-Up Optimizer & Waiver Wire
WR-CB & OL-DL Matchups, PFF Player Grades, & Premium Stats 2.0 Tools
Nathan Jahnkes Rankings - #1 Most Accurate Last 70 Weeks
PFF Best Bets, Player Props, & Power Ranking Tools
NFL Mock Draft Sim with Trades & Draft Grades

Already have a subscription? Log In

Safety worth way more than 2 points. Help protect your family with fast, free will.
Sponsor
NFL Draft Featured Tools
Subscriptions

Unlock the 2023 Fantasy Draft Kit, with League Sync, Live Draft Assistant, PFF Grades & Data Platform that powers all 32 Pro Teams

$31 Draft Kit Fee + $8.99/mo
OR
$89.88/yr + FREE Draft Kit