They say you can't truly start to evaluate an NFL player until he's in his third year. So it's time for the Class of 2008 to face the music.
This will always be a special draft class to us here at PFF. We launched in 2007, but only to see if our system would work; it wasn't until 2008 that we truly started watching every player on every play in every game. This is the first class that we can say we've watched on every play of their careers, and there have certainly been some worth watching … along with some best enjoyed with dark glasses on and the sound turned off.
Here's our assessment of the first round, with an overall letter grade for each player and what we'd suggest to the GMs, should we ever be given a time machine. (Coming tomorrow: the second round, plus the steals that make every team's day).
1. Jake Long, T, Miami
Value: Exceptional. He's a cornerstone of the Dolphins' franchise. Good as a rookie. Great as a sophomore. As a junior, he may just be the best left tackle in the league with the sudden regression of Joe Thomas.
Interesting stat: In his last 21 starts Long has averaged out as giving up under one pressure per game. To think some people said he was more suited to being a right tackle.
Grade: A+
Re-do pick: Make the same pick all day Long.
2. Chris Long, DE, St Louis
Value: He's not all-conquering like Mario Williams, nor does he have the attributes of Julius Peppers, but he's the best defensive end from this class.
Interesting stat: After picking up 70 combined quarterback pressures in his first two years, Long is on pace to better that figure in this year alone. At his current speed he'll pick up 85.3 total quarterback pressures.
Grade: B-
Re-do pick: In retrospect, the Rams needed quarterback help, and you had the highly rated Matt Ryan one pick below.
3. Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta
Value: Any time you find yourself a franchise quarterback who helps rebuild a broken franchise immediately, you have to be happy. However, he hasn't really pushed on from his rookie year — in fact, he has regressed. Still, he's a solid starting QB in the NFL, and those don't grow on trees.
Interesting Stat: Just nine of Matty Ice's career interceptions have come when he has been faced with pressure.
Grade: A
Re-do pick: Atlanta would make this pick again, but with the Rams taking Ryan, the Falcons would have been forced into finding another face of the franchise. Joe Flacco has been steadier than Ryan in some respects.
4. Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland
Value: Not great. In hindsight, there were better backs on the board, and McFadden has never lived up to the hype as a player who could make an impact similar to that of Adrian Peterson.
Interesting Stat: His nine forced missed tackles in 2010 are just four fewer than he managed in years one and two. Getting better.
Grade: C-
Re-do pick: If you really need some help in the backfield then getting a game-changer like Chris Johnson gives you that help and then some.
5. Glenn Dorsey, DT, Kansas City
Value: Below average. When you take a guy with a top-five pick who is supposed to be one of the best in recent memory coming out of college, you expect more. His conversion to 3-4 took time, but he's settled and a decent contributor.
Interesting Stat: He has only missed three tackles in his career.
Grade: C-
Re-do pick: The Chiefs needed help at quarterback but the value isn't there. Going for the best player available at a position of need, step forward, Brandon Flowers.
6. Vernon Gholston, LB/DE, New York Jets
Value: What's the opposite of value? To quote Jets fans, he looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane. He has such a small role in what the Jets are doing, we have to assume it's because he just doesn't have what it takes.
Interesting Stat: He has got quarterback pressure just 13 times since entering the league. Some players manage that in a single game.
Grade: F
Re-do pick: The Jets were pretty stacked on their roster at this stage but it wouldn't hurt to bring in another cornerback to play alongside Revis. Time to call on the impressive Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.
7. Sedrick Ellis, DT, New Orleans
Value: Good at times, bad at others. It really depends what mood you catch Ellis in. Strong pass rush as a rookie, injured in year two and inconsistent this year. Where is that player who ended 2008 playing at an elite level?
Interesting Stat: His rookie year accounted for 30 percent of the total pressure he has generated since entering the league.
Grade: B-
Re-do pick: Can you take a guard this high? Considering how good (and important) a player Carl Nicks has become to the Saints, he would have been value here.
8. Derrick Harvey, DE, Jacksonville
Value: The Jags traded up to get a potent pass-rusher to go after Peyton Manning. They didn't get one. Thus the value isn't great.
Interesting Stat: There's no sign of Harvey improving his pass-rushing production. He's playing at his usual level right now, and on course for just 26.67 pressures this year — this is actually lower than either of his first two years.
Grade: C-
Re-do pick: A guy who can actually get some pressure on the quarterback like Chris Long would be a big help.
9. Keith Rivers, LB, Cincinnati
Value: Later in the round this would be good, but from a top-ten pick you expect him to be both an every-down contributor and to make more plays. He's decent, but not to the level hoped for.
Interesting Stat: Rivers has missed just four tackles his career, with three of those coming as a rookie. Sums up the steady type of player he is.
Grade: B-
Re-do pick: The Bengals needed a receiving threat from tight end, so Jermichael Finley would have been the right pick here.
10. Jerod Mayo, ILB, New England
Value: The Patriots' only true every-down linebacker has been better this year than either of his first two years. But a top-ten pick? Well, he's no Patrick Willis.
Interesting Stat: After grading 38th in his rookie year and 39th in Year 2, his current position of 16th is the highest Mayo has graded in our inside/middle linebacker rankings.
Grade: B-
Re-do pick: After saying goodbye to Asante Samuel, the Patriots could have used a guy like Aqib Talib, and Talib would have enjoyed a guy like Bill Belichick.
11. Leodis McKelvin, CB, Buffalo
Value: It's tough to tell, with McKelvin's 2009 season washed out by injury. Right now he makes plays that are both good and bad. Not ideal at the cornerback spot.
Interesting Stat: He has allowed 65.12 percent of passes thrown his way in his career to be complete.
Grade: C
Re-do pick: The Bills needed help everywhere. Picking Ryan Clady and playing him at right tackle for a year before dumping Jason Peters would have been a nice move.
12. Ryan Clady, T, Denver
Value: Clady is a franchise left tackle and a more than useful player, so it's good value. But he's not the player people make him out to be. Each time someone calls him the best young left tackle in the league, he should send a thank you card to Jay Cutler for avoiding so many sacks.
Interesting Stat: In his rookie year, the 37 pressures he gave up were more than any other tackle. The zero sacks allowed were the fewest.
Grade: B
Re-do pick: As loathe as Mike Shanahan is to take running backs, just how much yardage could he have got out of Jammal Charles?
13. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina
Value: An excellent player at this spot. When he was given the ball at the end of the 2009 season, Stewart was about as good a back as there was in the league — but they didn't really need him with DeAngelo Williams in the mix.
Interesting Stat: Forced a missed tackle for every 5.01 times he touched the ball last year.
Grade: B
Re-do pick: The Panthers were thin at defensive tackle, having just lost Kris Jenkins, so getting Sedrick Ellis would have helped (especially if he turned up for every play).
14. Chris Williams, T, Chicago
Value: The Chris Williams who got the better of Jared Allen this season is superb value. The Chris Williams we've seen for the rest of his career … not so much.
Interesting Stat: He gives up a quarterback pressure for every 11.81 dropbacks (career). Not a terrible number by any stretch.
Grade: C
Re-do pick: The Bears could have used an every-down running back (and, in fact, chose Matt Forte later on), and Jonathan Stewart might have been able to make something happen behind that offensive line.
15. Branden Albert, T, Kansas City
Value: Albert just hasn't developed into what you'd hope a franchise left tackle would be. He's been far from utterly terrible, but you'd want more from a No. 15 pick. Over his career he has 10 games grading in the green (good), 12 in the red (bad).
Interesting Stat: After giving up 43 pressures as a rookie, Albert dropped that figure down to 32 last year but is on course to give up 44.8 this year.
Grade: C
Re-do pick: The Chiefs could have used an upgrade to their rushing attack at this stage and Ray Rice is the kind of every-down, high-character guy a team with Larry Johnson on it needed.
16. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Arizona
Value: It's a bit boom-or-bust finding a top-tier cornerback, so the Cardinals can say they hit the jackpot with DRC. He makes the occasional mistake and is not helped out by his team's inability to generate pressure, but he does some things others can only dream of.
Interesting Stat: He has 31 pass breakups since 2008, better than all of his draft class and among the best in the league.
Grade: A
Re-do pick: The Cards wish he was still on our re-jumbled board, but he isn't. Instead, with all the cornerbacks taken, the Cards are forced to look in the direction of Mike Jenkins.
17. Gosder Cherilus, T, Detroit
Value: An inconsistent player. At times last year he looked more than capable, but this year has looked out of his depth. The Lions have form with sticking to the tackles that pan out eventually.
Interesting Stat: Gave up 36 pressures as a rookie, 41 as a sophomore and on course to give up 60.8 this year.
Grade: C-
Re-do pick: The Lions needed secondary help badly; Kenny Phillips missed most of 2009, but was impressive as a rookie and looks more than capable this year.
18. Joe Flacco, Baltimore
Value: Superb. A true home-run pick, Flacco has been everything the Ravens could have asked for and a little bit more.
Interesting Stat: He's thrown 61.76 percent of his career touchdown passes when teams have blitzed him, including all of his scores this year.
Grade: A+
Re-do pick: With no Flacco on the board, quarterback would have still been the biggest concern. The Ravens could win with Chad Henne under center.
19. Jeff Otah, T, Carolina
Value: Otah had a useful rookie year but slumped in Year 2, and has been injured this year. A good fit for a Panthers team that wanted to run the ball, Otah isn't bad value.
Interesting Stat: Went from 21st to 38th overall in our combined tackle rankings last year.
Grade: B-
Re-do pick: Knowing they needed to replace Julius Peppers eventually (or find him a partner), Kroy Biermann would have been a good choice.
20. Aqib Talib, CB, Tampa Bay
Value: Talib is an interesting case. Capable of manning up on most receivers and winning his share of the battles, he also gets beaten a fair bit. In short, he promises more than he delivers. Still, at this stage, to find a cornerback with that talent is good work.
Interesting Stat: Has allowed a very respectable 58.02 percent of passes to be completed since entering the league.
Grade: B+
Re-do pick: Glenn Dorsey has shown talent in flashes; he'd get to play in a 4-3 defense while the Bucs upgrade their weakest spot.
21. Sam Baker, T, Atlanta
Value: There were some concerns about Baker's durability. They've proven to be valid. There were some concerns about Baker's ability to deal with the best pass-rushers. They've proven to be valid. Just not a good use of a first-round pick.
Interesting Stat: On course to give up 54.4 quarterback pressures this year after giving up 37 last year (though he was injured for parts of 2009).
Grade: D
Re-do pick: Allowing Keith Brooking to move outside, Curtis Lofton is the thumper the Falcons' defense needs (good thing they got him anyway).
22. Felix Jones, RB, Dallas
Value: The Cowboys already had a running back in Marion Barber, but the Jones selection has looked good business at times. Clearly a talented runner, he just needs to get more touches/stay healthier.
Interesting Stat: Is averaging 3.22 yards after contact per carry.
Grade: B
Re-do pick: Is it possible to select a Felix Jones who can handle more touches?
23. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Pittsburgh
Value: His first year ended on IR, and he was called out for his performance in his second year. But Mendenhall has really turned it around, and he's the most complete runner the Steelers have had in a while.
Interesting Stat: This year he's making opponents miss a tackle once every 5.04 carries, one of the best ratios in the league.
Grade: B+
Re-do pick: Given the same choice, it's probably worth sticking to something that worked so well. Mendenhall, again.
24. Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee
Value: Many said it was a reach at the time, but a 2,000-yard season can silence naysayers pretty quickly. A threat to take it the distance every time he touches the ball.
Interesting Stat: Last year he forced a missed tackle every 8.1 touches of the ball. He doesn't need to make you miss, essentially … he'll just run around you.
Grade: A+
Re-do pick: The Titans like defensive linemen who can get up the field. So they pull the trigger on Jason Jones and watch him do so (as they actually did in round two).
25. Mike Jenkins, CB, Dallas
Value: Jenkins has given up some penalties this year, but you only needed to watch him last year to know he has some serious skills. Not a shutdown corner yet, but he's one of the league's better ones.
Interesting Stat: Only one player has more pass breakups than Jenkins in the past two seasons.
Grade: A
Re-do pick: The Cowboys would probably appreciate a little bit more explosiveness from their defensive ends. Despite struggling this year, Calais Campbell could provide that.
26. Duane Brown, T, Houston
Value: The Texans needed a left tackle but took a huge reach on Brown, who for the most part has proven his critics right. Struggling for most of his career, we have seen numerous false dawns from Brown, but he is the best LT the Texans have. Who does that say more about?
Interesting Stat: Only Mario Henderson gave up more pressure than Brown in 2009. On the plus side, he started off this year much better before suspension.
Grade: C-
Re-do pick: The Texans could use some serious help in the secondary. Terrell Thomas has been a solid starter for the most part in New York.
27. Antoine Cason, CB, San Diego
Value: We're only now starting to see the value of Cason as a starter. Has already made some nice plays, but has already been beaten more often than he should. Antonio Cromartie is gone but not forgotten in San Diego.
Interesting Stat: Has already played more snaps this year than last year, when he was benched in favor of Steve Gregory.
Grade: C
Re-do pick: While Luis Castillo regressed in 2008 and Igor Olshansky did little in his last year, Kendall Langford would have been readied to start by now.
28. Lawrence Jackson, DE, Seattle
Value: The Seahawks were prepared to let him go for a fifth-round pick this summer, which says it all about his time in Seattle. His play down the stretch in 2009 was particularly bad.
Interesting Stat: In his last four games with Seattle, he managed just one quarterback pressure and in his last season had five games where he got none.
Grade: F
Re-do pick: Not a sexy pick, but there aren't many better guards out there than Josh Sitton.
29. Kentwan Balmer, DT, San Francisco
Value: Another player traded away for a pittance. Balmer was a continual disappointment in San Francisco, very rarely seeing the field, and has already accomplished more in Seattle.
Interesting Stat: In 2009 he got in the quarterback's face just three times. Still, that's three more times than he did as a rookie but two less times than he has already managed with the Seahawks.
Grade: F
Re-do pick: The Niners needed some help at wideout and DeSean Jackson at least would have stretched the defense for them.
30. Dustin Keller, TE, New York Jets
Value: It depends what you want from Keller. He's a decent enough receiver whose sheer athleticism creates matchup problems. But he really can't block and makes too many mental errors.
Interesting Stat: His four dropped passes this year are one less than he managed in the entire 2009 season.
Grade: C+
Re-do pick: In the days before Bart Scott and Rex Ryan, Jerod Mayo would have fit in nicely to what the Mangenius was trying to accomplish.
31. Kenny Phillips, New York Giants
Value: If Phillips hadn't been injured, the Giants may have been a very different proposition last year. He has his bad moments, but he's a safety who is comfortable deep and coming up to hit people. Great value here, if his start to 2010 is anything to go by (top-five graded safety).
Interesting Stat: Has more interceptions (four) than pass breakups (three) in his career.
Grade: A-
Re-do pick: The guy they later got in this draft (Jonathan Goff) looks like a good replacement for Antonio Pierce, but Dan Connor is the pick. He may be a gamble given his limited playing time but he has been elite in 2010.
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