Betting News & Analysis

Data-driven Player Prop Picks for NFL Week 5: Bet Justin Fields, Nick Chubb and more

Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) runs the ball and is tackled by San Francisco 49ers middle linebacker Fred Warner (54) at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports

Bet Bears QB Justin Fields u0.5 pass TDs at Vikings (+145): Bears' 17.5% pass rate over expectation lowest in NFL (17.5%).

Bet Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb o5.5 receptions (+115): Rams have allowed NFL-high 69 catches by receivers; Lamb over this number in three straight with Cooper Rush.

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Last updated: Fri. Oct 7, 1:15 p.m.

Estimated reading time: 4 mins

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Bet: Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb longest rush over 18.5 yards (+115 Draftkings; play up to 19.5 yards) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

 45% Perfectly Blocked Runs: The Browns have the NFL's second-highest rate of Perfectly Blocked runs created by their offensive line and any other blockers on that given run. This bodes well for Chubb, who only needs one perfectly blocked run for to hit the second level of the defense and cash this play.

Chargers allow at least one huge rush per game: While the Chargers defense has actually been good at preventing Perfectly Blocked runs,  Dameon Pierce (75 yards), James Robinson (50 yards), and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (52 yards) have all hit the over in recent weeks.

9 straight for Chubb: He's gone over this longest rush prop in his past 9 games including last season, and we like him to continue that streak at home this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars RB James Robinson anytime TD (+105 @ Caesers, play down to -110 odds) vs. Houston Texans

Texans run defense is below league average: In a variety of statistics we can use to measure run defense — including EPA/rush allowed, rushing success rate allowed, YPC allowed, and total rushing yards allowed — Houston is in the bottom half of the league.

6 total touchdowns allowed to running backs: This includes 3 to Austin Ekeler last week, and 2 to Khalil Herbert the week before.

James Robinson remains Jaguars featured back: And outside of a weird weather game in Philly last week, he had been receiving the majority of the workload, especially inside the red zone. With the Jaguars likely to be playing with a lead for most of this game, Robinson should see enough chances inside the redzone to score a TD.

Bet: Philadelphia Eagles Dallas Goedert over 43.5 receiving yards (-115 @ Bet MGM; playable to 47.5 yards) @ Arizona Cardinals

Arizona has allowed second-most receiving yards to tight ends: The Cardinals have been really bad at slowing down tight ends this year, already allowing three of them to hit 50 yards in a game this year. 

• Sub-50 PFF coverage grades for 3 Cardinals coverage linebackers: Isaiah Simmons, Zaven Collins, and Nick Vigil all have sub-50 PFF coverage grades — and show up very poorly in our Successful Coverage over Expected metric.

Goedert has gone over this number easily in 3 out of his 4 games: And the one under was a blowout vs the Commanders. We can expect Goedert’s good year to continue Sunday against one of the worst defenses at stopping tight ends.

Bet: Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields u0.5 passing TDs (+145 @ Draftkings; play down to +110) @ Minnesota Vikings

Justin Fields has not thrown a touchdown since Week 1: And even then, the two TD passes he threw were to wide open receivers. Fortunately, the books are giving one of the more profitable bets to us at plus money again.

The Bears have the lowest pass rate over expectation in the NFL at 17.5%: That means Chicago is throwing the ball 17.5% less than expected given the game situation. 

Minnesota has allowed only 3 passing touchdowns to opposing QBs: And its defense should be at full strength for this game without any major injuries in the secondary or front 7.

Bet: Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb o5.5 receptions (+115 BetMGM; play down to -110) @ Los Angeles Rams

The Rams have allowed a league leading 69 receptions to wide receivers: This includes monster performances from Stefon Diggs (8 receptions), Drake London (8 receptions), and Marquise Brown (14 receptions).

While Jalen Ramsey is playing at his usual All-Pro level, the rest of the cornerback room has not been up to par: With how stout the Rams D-line is, and how weak their secondary is, we can expect the Cowboys to attack the Rams weak links in the secondary, by putting Lamb in positions to succeed.

• Lamb has gone over this prop in all 3 games with Cooper Rush: And Lamb has commanded at least 8 targets in each game. No other Cowboys receiver has had more than 6 targets in each of Rush’s 3 games this season, showing how much of a target hog Lamb is.

Arjun’s data driven prop bets went 2-2 (+0.4 units) last week which brings his season record to 9-8 (+1.64 units).


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