Betting News & Analysis

NFL Week 14 Betting: Best spread, over/under bets before lines move

2T51XAW Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) calls a play in the huddle with wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10), wide receiver Braxton Berrios (0), wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17), running back Raheem Mostert (31) and offensive lineman Austin Jackson (73) during an NFL football game against the New England Patriots, Sunday, Oct. 29, 2023, in Miami Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/Doug Murray)

• Bet on the Dolphins' potent offense to take down (-13) another inferior opponent: Miami should crush the Titans, who will be missing their best run defender and could struggle to cover Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

• Bet on the Packers to keep rolling (-6) against the Giants: Jordan Love has been flashing legitimate potential to be Aaron Rodgers’ successor in Green Bay over the past couple of weeks,

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Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes

If you are betting on NFL spreads, it's best to do it early. After reviewing each line on the PFF Forecast Podcast, we are here to share our favorite early bets to make before the market catches on and lines move.

We went 39-30-4 last year and are sitting at 22-17 (+4.5 units) this season after a 2-0 week (with a teaser leg still to play on Monday Night Football).

Make sure you don’t miss anything by joining in on the action with the PFF Betting Discord.

If you are wondering why we bet early, here is a great primer.

Miami Dolphins (-13) vs. Tennessee Titans

The Titans lost Jeffery Simmons, their best defender, to injury this past week. He was their highest-graded defensive lineman and top run defender. To make matters worse, Tennessee might be without Derrick Henry after he suffered a concussion in the Week 13 loss to the Colts.

The Dolphins have annihilated bad teams this season, and the Titans certainly qualify. Miami has covered in every game where they were a favorite of seven or more, except for their win against the Raiders. The Titans' secondary has two safeties who rank 50th or worse, and cornerback Kristian Fulton ranks 112th of 114 cornerbacks in PFF grade. How they plan to cover Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle while also stopping the Dolphins' potent run game without their best run defender will be something to watch.

Since Week 8 when he became the starter, Will Levis has a 10.7-yard average depth of target that ranks second to only C.J. Stroud. But Levis plays a far more chaotic brand of football, searching for explosive plays that aren't always there, with dramatically worse pass protection. On throws of 10-plus yards downfield, Levis' 9.7% turnover-worthy play rate ranks sixth worst, and his 37.5% completion rate places second worst.

Over the same span, which coincidentally aligns with the return of Jalen Ramsey to the Dolphins' lineup, Miami's defense has the highest coverage grade in the NFL and is allowing the lowest EPA per dropback by nearly four times that of the next-best coverage unit on passes targeted 10-plus yards downfield. The Dolphins have allowed a bottom-10 success rate and the fewest completions in the NFL on such throws over the span.

This is a very bad matchup for Levis and company against a Vic Fangio defense that is predicated on taking away explosive plays and generating coverage sacks, the opportunities for which will be aplenty against a porous Titans offensive line.

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Green Bay Packers (-6) @ New York Giants

Jordan Love has been flashing legitimate potential to be Aaron Rodgers’ successor in Green Bay over the past couple of weeks and is on his way to leading them to a wild-card berth. One of the strongest aspects of Love's game this season is his performance against the blitz, with his 77.2 passing grade the seventh-best mark in the league through Week 13 and his 3.7% sack rate when blitzed the fourth-best mark among quarterbacks.

The Packers did lose Christian Watson to what seemed like a hamstring injury late in the Sunday night game, but regardless of whether he plays, the offense has players who are capable of separating against man coverage. Specifically, Dontayvion Wicks has shown up very nicely in our charting metrics versus single man coverage. Entering Week 13, he ranked second in the percentage of routes charted as open against single man coverage.

On the other side, the Packers are a middle-of-the-pack unit in every defensive metric. While Tommy DeVito has flashed in recent weeks, it has come against non-playoff teams like the Patriots and Commanders. The Giants are also one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL, ranking 32nd in EPA per rush and 25th in rushing success rate, so they probably won’t find any success there, either.

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