Player prop unders hit at a 55% rate between 2017 and 2019. The early weeks of 2020 saw fewer unders hit than we had seen in the past, but that has started to correct outside of one outlier Week 7 when the majority of props went over their stated number.
In nine of the first 10 weeks of the season, most props finished under their number, while three of the past five full weeks have had the highest percentage of unders hitting on the season. Week 11 went back to the early-season split, with props still favoring the under, though not at the high rate we saw in recent weeks.
|Week||Percentage of Under Wins||Percentage of Over Wins|
The percentage of props going under now sits at 53.65% for the season. We have seen a correction back to the downside for the majority of prop categories. At a macro level, it appears that passing attempts are down based on expectation, but a higher percentage of those attempts are completed.
Passing touchdowns lean toward the over, but this is a spot to watch for heavy juice shaded to one side or the other. All yardage related props continue to go under at a higher rate, which makes them great to target late in the season. This is especially true of rushing yardage props when usage looks to be split for a timeshare between two or more backs.
|Prop Category||Percentage of Under Wins||Percentage of Over Wins|
One way to consistently find defined edges is by utilizing our player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet.
My written plays went 2-4 in Week 11. Most situations played out as we expected them to, though we fell just short on a couple of overs. The slightly down week so far brings my year-to-date written prop record to 58-39-1 for +14.65 units. We are still in the black on the season and need a solid Monday night performance to get close to the black for Week 11.
We are hitting the point of the season where usage is better understood, and we are now looking for mispriced lines and situations that have moved too much to one side based on recency bias. There are also situations where players are returning from injury, yet we don't fully understand how they factor into their respective offenses, making these valuable opportunities to target.
Some of the props written may not be the most comfortable bets, but taking a loss that is still based on sound process is a useful skill that all sports bettors should master.