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Comparing PFF's 2020 NFL season simulation results to betting odds on teams for the best, worst records

Multi-way betting markets are one of the toughest bets to consistently beat. The hold percentage is typically higher than a two-way market, but that also offers the opportunity to produce outsized gains if you hit on the correct outcome. Let's take a close look at markets in which NFL teams will produce the best and worst record this upcoming season. Leveraging our simulation results, we can accurately gauge which teams are over- or underpriced given their current odds. 

The Favorites — Best Record

Kansas City Chiefs

The reigning Super Bowl champions just locked down the first half-a-billion-dollar player, making things appear rosy in Kansas City for the foreseeable future. The Chiefs could have considerable salary cap restrictions on the horizon, but they appear to be locked and loaded with the best roster in the NFL in 2020. They are the favorite for the best record in the NFL — but with an implied 18.2% probability, the Chiefs might still be underpriced relative to our simulation results. They are a full half-game ahead of the next closest team in our win total projections.

After Patrick Mahomes legendary playoff run last season, the only thing outside of COVID-19 that can stop the Chiefs appears to be an injury to the Super Bowl MVP. It is tough to justify taking the favorite in a multi-way market that doesn’t pay out for another six months, but the Chiefs are still priced short of expectation, making them the best option on the board to finish with the best record in the NFL. 

Baltimore Ravens

The only real contender to the Chiefs creating a dynasty is Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Everyone knows how electric Jackson is, but the Ravens actually produced the most WAR from an offensive unit when excluding the quarterback position. Their offensive line also had the most WAR generated in 2019, which speaks to their success running the football.

The Ravens' implied probability of 16.7% shows the betting market has bought into them heavier than our simulation has. The key differentiator for us is the strength of their division in relation to the Chiefs, which is why our simulation leans heavily in the Chiefs' direction in 2020. 

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