The one thing you can rely on in the NFL is surprises and there were a couple big ones in Week 3, none more so than the Vikings beating the 49ers. The matchup appeared perfect for San Francisco, who could surely control Adrian Peterson and the Vikings' ground game and leave sophomore Christian Ponder to face a fearsome pass rush. But Ponder came up big and there’s a lot of talk about him possibly elevating into top 10 status. He’s not there yet, but a divisional win on the road would go a long way to convincing some of his sceptics.
On the other side, the Lions lost an epic battle in overtime to the Titans and now find themselves at 1-2. A team with playoff aspirations in the NFC North can’t afford to fall far behind so, while this obviously isn’t a must win, it could be significant in deciding whether they eventually achieve that goal.
Covering Calvin
Calvin Johnson (+9.1) is uncoverable when he’s on form, and the Vikings get to face him after a 10-catch, 164-yard day. He’s caught an impressive 77.4% of balls thrown his way and forced three missed tackles this season. It will be a tough test for a young Minnesota secondary which will likely be without starting safety Mistral Raymond (+0.5 in coverage) who has an ankle malady. A lot of the responsibility will likely fall on Chris Cook (-3.6) who has had a slow start to the season. He’s allowed 13 of 23 targets to be complete for 147 yards and two touchdowns, with just a solitary pass deflection. On the other side meanwhile, Johnson will often get to face rookie nickel Josh Robinson (-2.0). Robinson can’t have seen talent like Johnson’s when he was at Central Florida and he’ll need to do better than the 85% completion rate he’s allowed thus far. Antoine Winfield (+2.9) is the most likely to be able to stay with CJ, but even then as Winfield stands 5’9 the Lions will surely give Megatron a chance with a jump ball. Plus Winfield moves inside in the nickel and Johnson rarely occupies the slot (47 of 230). It would probably be wise for the Vikings to use Harrison Smith (+3.4) to double the big wideout when they can.
Lions Tackles vs. Vikings Dominant Duo
After a dreadful start to last season, Jeff Backus (+2.9) has just one grade in the red since Week 8. He’s only allowed his quarterback to be knocked down three times in that span, proving his prowess in pass protection. Currently, with just a sack and a hurry conceded, he’s second in the NFL with a pass blocking efficiency of 98.8. Jared Allen (-1.2) has started the season off slowly and dare I question whether age is catching up with him? Despite rushing the passer 116 times (he almost never comes off the field) he has amassed just the solitary sack, two hits and eight hurries. Backus has looked the better of the two thus far, but Allen can turn it on at any time.
At DLE Brian Robison (+7.8) turns his attention to Gosder Cherilus (+2.4). Cherilus hasn’t quite played as well as his teammate but considering the Lions’ penchant for the passing game, he’s more than held his own. Despite protecting for 146 snaps, he’s allowed just a sack, three hits and four pressures. Robison meanwhile, doesn’t have a sack but he has got four QB hits and another 11 hurries, good enough for eighth in the league with a +4.8 Pass Rush grade.
Rudolph Presents Big Challenge
Kyle Rudolph hasn’t shown the ability to block in the run game that he flashed in 2011, but he still presents a very difficult matchup for Detroit’s linebackers and safeties. His one-handed catch against the 49ers proves the kind of special talent he possesses and, with Louis Delmas out, the Lions have no one in the secondary they can be comfortable covering him. If Rudolph can cut out the dropped passes (three) and the coaching staff can isolate him in single coverage, the Vikings will have a good chance to win.
Strongside linebacker Justin Durant is a good player who can shed blocks, but is a weakness when asked to drop into coverage (-2.5). He has allowed a 117.7 QB rating when targeted so far in 2012, as well as a 75% completion percentage. Despite playing just 62 snaps, he’s given up 124 yards and 2 yards per cover snap, bad enough for second-worst in the league. A combination of John Wendling (-2.4), Erik Coleman (-3.7) and Amari Spievey (-0.4 in 65 snaps) don’t have much chance either. Spievey wasn’t good enough to start in Week 1 or 2, but the former duo were so bad Detroit had to make a change. The numbers speak for themselves as the three men listed above have given up a combined 11 receptions on 14 targets for 180 yards and a pair of TDs.
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