If this is to be the week Cam Newton emerges from his funk, then he’ll need to play one of his best games as a pro. The Seahawks' defense takes no prisoners, and has quality at every level. The team may be fortunate to stand at 2-2, but Pete Carroll’s unit certainly isn’t to blame — they've given up just 20, 7, 12 and 19 points.
The offense is another story, however, and they’ll be relieved to be facing a Panthers defense that struggles to stop the run. If you can’t win in the trenches in the NFL then it’s hard to win at all, as Carolina have found out the hard way. Their defensive tackles especially have done a terrible job of protecting their talented group of linebackers, and those ‘backers haven’t performed to their abilities. If the Panthers are to have any chance they’ll have to stop the man who was just named as the top running back through four weeks of the season.
Olsen Must Win Individual Matchup
Greg Olsen (+10.2) has always been a talented pass catcher, but he’s surprised everyone so far in 2012 with his run blocking (+4.3). That new-found ability will be put to the test on Sunday when he’s forced to match-up with the likes of strongside end Red Bryant (+1.6 against the run) and strongside linebacker KJ Wright (+4.2). The latter in particular will prove a tough assignment, as evidenced by his 10.1% stop rate, which ranks ninth in the league.
While Olsen will be important in the run game, he’ll be crucial when Carolina attack through the air. He’s proved Newton’s most reliable target, catching over 75% of the balls thrown his way and topping 250 yards. The former Bear has also forced four missed tackles (tied third) proving he can make things happen even without a great degree of separation. He’ll face two of the best players at their respective positions however, in the aforementioned Wright and strong safety Kam Chancellor (+3.2 in coverage). Wright’s stats don’t necessarily stand out, but he’s proven one of the better cover ‘backers in the league the past few years. Chancellor, meanwhile, is targeted a lot (third most in the league) but doesn’t give much up, allowing a QB rating of just 82.3.
Disruptive DTs Will Cause Havoc
On paper the Panthers have one of the better interior trios in the NFL, but they’re yet to play like it. Their two guards and center have combined for a -8.2 grade. RG Geoff Hangartner (-8.0) has been the biggest culprit, as he’s generated no push in the run game. Unless something dramatic happens, Brandon Mebane (+13.7) and Alan Branch (+3.6) are going to eat him for lunch. Mebane especially has simply been on another level in run defense, as he’s generated a league-leading stop on 14.1% of plays. The next closest player is nearly 4% lower. C Ryan Kalil (-2.9 run block grade) is also likely to struggle. He’s allowed five stops at or around the line of scrimmage. Finally, rookie Amini Silatolu (+0.5), who’s actually graded as the best of the three, will have his toughest test in pass protection. He’s given up just a sack, two hits and four hurries, but must now contend with pass-rushing specialist Jason Jones. Back at his more natural interior position, Jones has two sacks, five hurries and a pair of batted passes. All in just 82 pass rushes. Hangartner and Bell will have to be aware too because Carroll uses him on both sides.
Covering Rice and Tate Downfield
One thing defensive coordinators can count on is Seattle taking shots deep. Sidney Rice and Golden Tate have been targeted a combined 34 times, and 17 have come 10 yards or more downfield. Tate in particular has been sent deep often, with six of his 13 targets coming when he’s more than 20 yards from the line of scrimmage. Both players have graded positively and will prove a tough test for the Panthers’ makeshift secondary. Not one of Carolina’s starters have graded positively, and three of the four are at –4.5 or worse. Chris Gamble (-0.7) hasn’t had the greatest start to the season, but has at least been adequate. The same cannot be said of Josh Norman (-2.8 in coverage) as his numbers tell a very misleading story. He actually has done a pretty decent job of not getting beat deep, but is susceptible to underneath routes where he’s allowed 12 first downs. The safeties on the other hand, particularly Haruki Nakamura (-3.3), have been victimised. They both do have a pick and pass deflection, but have otherwise allowed every target to be complete for over 200 yards and three touchdowns.
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