To many, Sunday’s matchup between the winless Cleveland Browns and the defending champion New York Giants has ‘Survivor Pool Pick' written all over it. The Giants have never started worse than 5-2 under coach Tom Coughlin. And the Browns have not given the Cleveland faithful much reason for hope in the past few years.
But don’t dismiss this game just yet.
The last time these two teams played, the defending champion Giants strutted into Cleveland Browns Stadium on Monday Night Football with a 4-0 record and left with an embarrassing 35-14 defeat. And it was this same week last season when the Seattle Seahawks traveled to the east coast as double-digit underdogs and pulled off an equally stunning 36-25 upset in front of the New York home crowd.
With an unforgiving schedule and high hopes for this season, the Giants can ill afford to take the Browns lightly. And despite their 0-4 record, Cleveland has gone toe-to-toe with three teams that are currently 3-1. Don’t be surprised if one of the matchups below decides the outcome.
Trent Richardson vs Giants Front Seven
Due to a combination of his athleticism and the Browns’ lack of talent at other skill positions, Trent Richardson has already become Cleveland’s biggest threat on offense. After a rough debut against the Philadelphia Eagles, the rookie running back has a combined 310 yards and three touchdowns in his past three games. His +2.2 rush grade leads the Browns, and his +2.8 pass grade is the fourth-highest among all NFL running backs.
The Giants may not be in the right mind to face another dangerous running back after LeSean McCoy torched them for 121 rushing yards in the second half last week. Time and again, Osi Umenyiora and the Giants’ defensive line failed to stay patient and allowed numerous cutback lanes for McCoy to gash them on the backside of the play. The good news for New York is that Richardson lacks McCoy’s shiftiness. His highlight-reel receiving touchdown aside, Richardson has tallied just seven missed tackles this season and one run over 15 yards. His 31.4 Elusive Rating puts him in the middle-of-the-pack of RBs. On the Giants’ front line, Jason Pierre Paul’s +9.6 run defense grade is the highest among all 4-3 defensive ends, while Linval Joseph and Rocky Bernard rank among the Top 20 defensive tackles against the run this season. This will be a big game for strongside linebacker Mathias Kiwanuka, who is off to a quiet start after a +10.4 run defense grade last season. The Giants would love for Kiwi to return to last year’s form to keep the hard-running Richardson under wraps.
Eli Manning vs Browns Linebackers
This is the final game of Joe Haden’s suspension, and the Browns are looking forward to their top cornerback’s return in Week 6. The Browns’ defensive backs have performed admirably in his absence, but the real stars of Cleveland’s pass defense have been its linebackers. Craig Robertson, D’Qwell Jackson, and Kaluka Maiava have tallied +5.3, +2.9, and +2.6 pass coverage grades, respectively. Opposing quarterbacks have one touchdown, five interceptions, and a 50.9 QB rating when throwing into the area of Cleveland’s linebackers.
This could be trouble for Eli Manning, whose otherwise solid start has been marred by some costly interceptions. Three of the Giants' QB’s four picks this season came when he failed to account for an underneath defender lurking in front of his intended target. In the second quarter of his Week 2 matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Manning floated a pass up the seam to Martellus Bennett that was intercepted by a backpedaling Mason Foster. Two drives later, Eric Wright, blitzing from his slot cornerback position, snagged Manning’s short pass to Victor Cruz and weaved 60 yards for a TD. And in the fourth quarter last week, with the Giants down three and knocking on the door of Philadelphia’s end zone, Manning failed to see Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie waiting underneath Bennett’s corner route. Manning could create more trouble for himself if he fails to account for the opportunistic Cleveland linebackers this Sunday.
No Pressure, Weeden
What are the proper expectations for a rookie quarterback in today’s NFL? The first-year struggles of previous Hall of Fame QBs make Brandon Weeden’s league-worst -10.9 grade somewhat forgivable. But it’s tough for the Browns' fans to cut the 29-year old some slack when the supposedly-raw Ryan Tannehill throws for 431 yards. What’s odd about Weeden’s first four NFL games is that his performance declines when defenses don’t pressure him. He’s thrown two touchdowns and three interceptions for a -1.7 grade when under duress, versus one touchdown, four interceptions and a -6.4 mark from a clean pocket. After facing a blitz on just 16.8% of his drop-backs in the first three weeks, Weeden actually held up decently when the Baltimore Ravens blitzed him 49.1% of the time last week. He passed for 322 yards and would have had a lot more if not for a shameful seven drops from his receivers.
The Giants defense lamented that they played more cautiously after safety Kenny Phillips left last week’s game with a knee injury, but that may be the best move against Weeden. New York’s secondary has been decimated by injuries, and the once-dependable Corey Webster ranks behind all NFL CBs with a -6.0 pass coverage grade this season. Justin Tuck (five QB pressures in four games) and the Giants’ front four has not lived up to their pass rush reputation this season, but Weeden’s struggles when left to his own devices should encourage New York to resist sending extra rushers at the rookie quarterback.
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