The Browns and Bills were quite possibly the most improved teams from Week 1 to Week 2. Cleveland lost to the Bengals in Cincinnati, but they showed a lot of promise and development after an ugly loss to the Eagles. The Bills bounced back from an opening day blowout loss to the Jets and beat up on Kansas City, and in doing so they showed many of the reasons for the offseason hype around the team.
In Week 3 they will meet in Cleveland and whichever team plays closer to the Week 2 version of themselves will most likely come out victorious. Here are three of the key matchups that will determine the outcome.
Trent Richardson vs. Bills Front Seven
A true strength-on-strength battle, where rookie standout running back Trent Richardson will try to penetrate the Bills' stout run defense. Richardson looked much stronger and confident running in Week 2 than he did in the opener. The Browns will lean on the running game more and more each week to take some pressure off rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden.
The problem with that plan is that this week they will go up against a Bills team that has the second-highest team run defense grade (+20.1) in the entire NFL. Nick Barnett (+7.7) and Arthur Moats (+2.5) lead a linebacker core that has been very good against the run so far in 2012. Kyle Williams (+4.3) is a load to block up front and helps clear the way for the linebackers to make the stops. If the Bills can contain Richardson and make Weeden beat them, it could be a long day for the Browns' offense.
Protecting Ryan Fitzpatrick
Buffalo's quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick, might be the streakiest in the league. He can be brilliant or dreadful from week to week. The key to Fitzpatrick’s game is rhythm. When he is in sync and has time to throw he is extremely accurate. However, if you can pressure him and disrupt his timing he tends to be quite erratic. The Browns will count on defensive tackle Ahtyba Rubin to push the pocket and apply pressure up the middle. In two weeks Rubin has a pass rush mark of +4.1, so he has the ability to be a factor.
Getting to Fitzpatrick is no easy task. The Bills are yet to allow a sack this season and all five of their starting offensive linemen have positive pass block grades. Keeping Fitzpatrick comfortable will be essential for the Bills offense against the Browns.
Spilling Over
After rushing the ball only 107 times in all of 2011, an early-season injury to Fred Jackson has opened the door for C.J. Spiller to get more carries. With the increased workload Spiller has been amazing, and averaged over 10 yards per carry and 14.4 yards per reception. Spiller has a two-week PFF grade of +5.5 and leads the league in PFF elusive rating, at a staggering 214. To put that in context, his elusive rating is more than double the rating of the next closest back. Spiller’s big-play ability will keep the Browns on their toes and could lead to some opportunities for other players.
Slowing Spiller down will be a main job for Browns’ middle linebacker D’Qwell Jackson. One of Jackson’s strengths in 2012 has been his pass coverage (+4.5), which will serve him well this week in trying to contain Spiller. With cornerback Joe Haden out serving a suspension the Browns will need to handle Spiller without getting extra help from the secondary in the passing game.
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