With 16 weeks of statistics and film in the books for NFL rookies, it is a good time to check in with their progress heading into 2012 and beyond. These were the top-12 rookies selected in 12-team PPR Dynasty leagues according to MyFantasyLeague.com's ADP data during the summer.
1.01 – A.J. Green
2011 Season: #14 WR in total FF points (PPR) while having 10+ points in 12 of his 14 games. Green is 16th in PFF pass rating (+9.3) and 7th in YPC among WRs with 100+ targets with 16.4. Green has been the most-targeted WR 20+ yards downfield with 30 such targets, converting an NFL-high 53% of those in receptions.
Future Projection: I have A.J. Green aggressively ranked as my #2 WR in dynasty formats as I have seen nothing not to like going forward. Andy Dalton has not limited Green at all as was a concern in prior to the season. Green's ball skills and adaptation to the NFL with no training camp this year only raise his ceiling moving forward.
Draft Grade: A+. For those that drafted Green as the most talented offensive player in the NFL draft over Ingram at a potential position of need (RB) for many dynasty teams, they were rewarded. Not only did Green perform as a high-level WR2 his rookie season, but Andy Dalton has looked like a more than capable QB to get him the ball. The pair could be productive for the next decade.
1.02 – Mark Ingram
2011 Season: Darren Sproles is an electric 3rd down/change of pace RB, limiting Ingram to split time with Pierre Thomas on early downs and running situations. Through 16 weeks, Ingram is RB45 in FF points with just 10 games played because of a lingering toe injury. Ingram has the lowest PFF Elusive Rating and missed tackle rate (just 11 on 122 carries) of the 4 Saints RBs. As a rookie RB, Ingram did manage a positive PFF blocking rating (+0.8) on the season. The good news is Sean Payton said during the season that he is the only thing preventing Mark Ingram from being the rookie of the year.
Future Projection: I still have Ingram at the end of my RB1 tier in dynasty. He was just 21 years old as a rookie with plenty of time to develop. The situation remains murky with other RBs, but elite TD production and plenty of chances to grind the clock at the end of wins remains.
Draft Grade: B. 2011 was a lost season for Ingram. After being largely a short-yardage back and 2nd-half clock-killer in the 1st half of the season, Ingram gets hurt and ends up with only 10 games played on the year. Darren Sproles will be an integral part of the Saints' attack going forward and Pierre Thomas is signed to a cap-friendly deal. Patience will be key with Ingram, but his “good situation” is murkier than most believed during the off-season.
1.03 – Julio Jones
2011 Season: Jones is WR24 in total FF points and 18th in PPG. His 5 games of 20+ points are more than Brandon Marshall, Larry Fitzgerald, Mike Wallace, or A.J. Green. Despite that production, Jones is just 88th in PFF pass rating (-3.5), so there is room to grow for the rookie. His 17.7 YPC is 6th among WRs with 50+ catches. Jones' 7.8 YAC/Reception is behind only Naaman Roosevelt (13 RECs) and James Jones (32 RECs) on the season.
Future Projection: I have Julio Jones at WR5 in my dynasty rankings. He has top-10 upside in 2012 as a 23-year-old. Roddy White takes away coverage, Tony Gonzalez signed for one more season, and Matt Ryan is more than capable at QB.
Draft Grade: A+. If you were lucky enough to get Julio Jones as the #3 pick in PPR rookie drafts, you are very pleased. Jones has been a solid WR2 outside of his games missed and ended the season with multiple 20-point games. The future is bright.
1.04 – Ryan Williams
2011 Season: Wiped out by a knee injury in the preseason.
Future Projection: His dynasty stock has definitely taken a hit by both the injury and Beanie Wells' ability to be a lead back and remain relatively healthy in 2011. I have Ryan Williams in the RB30 range long-term with a ton of risk/reward attached based on how he recovers from this injury. With a top-5 rookie pick invested in Williams, owners have to hold for the time being and view him as a rookie again in 2012.
Draft Grade: D. The injury was a huge blow to the rookie RB. The rookie draft was considered to be the top-3 players, then a bunch of questions. Ryan Williams was the choice at 1.04, viewed as the best of the question marks.
1.05 – Greg Little
2011 Season: 60/709/2 stat line as a raw rookie on a bad offense is impressive. Little ranks 43rd in FF points, 52nd in PPG with 4+ catches in 10 of his 15 games. Little is getting plenty of on-the-job training with the 7th most snaps among WRs in 2011. He leads all WRs in missed tackles with 17, but also leads in dropped passes with 14. An up-and-down season for Greg Little, but encouraging signs as a playmaker with a better surrounding cast in Cleveland moving forward.
Future Projection: Greg Little has high fantasy upside in dynasty because he will be the Browns #1 WR going forward to receive the most targets by far on the team. Colt McCoy and the overall offense will be limiting factors in the short-term. For a player that has not playing significant time at WR, I like the progression I have seen from Little as an NFL rookie.
Draft Grade: B. A decent flex or 4th WR as a rookie in a horrible offense. As the 5th pick, an owner should be pleased with that rookie season and the odds that Cleveland and Little improve in the coming season.
1.06 – Mikel LeShoure
2011 Season: Like Ryan Williams, LeShoure was another preseason casualty with an injured Achilles that landed him on the IR.
Future Projection: The possibility of a full recovery from his Achilles injury is definitely possible with the comeback of similarly injured Demaryius Thomas in 2011. With question marks surrounding LeShoure, Best, and Kevin Smith, the Lions could draft yet another RB in this year's draft, which would throw another option into the mix. I still like Best long-term in PPR formats, so LeShoure is a flyer-type RB far down my dynasty rankings.
Draft Grade: D+. LeShoure gets a higher grade than Williams does because he is on a higher-functioning Detroit offense and there are more question marks with the other RBs currently on the roster. LeShoure requires patience and to be treated like 2011 was a red-shirt rookie campaign.
1.07 – Daniel Thomas
2011 Season: Reggie Bush was signed as the starting RB once the lockout ended, but most still thought Thomas was the play with Bush's checkered injury history in the NFL. Bush has remained healthy in 2011, limiting Thomas to just over 150 touches on the season. With his opportunities, Thomas has generally been unimpressive. His -6.7 PFF rush rating is the worst of all 64 RBs with 25% or more of team snaps. Thomas also has the 3rd lowest Elusive Rating among RBs with 150+ touches in 2011. He is 52nd in FF points and 55th in PPG.
Future Projection: Reggie Bush is still just 27 years old and is a definite roadblock to extended playing time for Thomas in Miami. Thomas has not been a difference-maker in his limited opportunities in 2011 and is around RB35 in my dynasty rankings for the time being.
Draft Grade: C-. Overall, this is about what you can expect from a mid-1st round rookie pick. Although, Thomas had some nice moments in 2011, he was generally a non-fantasy-factor, and will require an injury to Reggie Bush to have an impact moving forward.
1.08 – Jonathan Baldwin
2011 Season: Steve Breaston was signed in free agency and Baldwin getting into a fight with teammate Thomas Jones did not help the rookie early in the season. Baldwin is 113th in FF points and 105th in PPG among WRs. His 40.9% catch rate is a glaring statistic, especially with Bowe and Breaston both over 60% on the season. His 12.6 YPC, 2.2 YAC/Reception are below both Breaston and Bowe as well. Baldwin's 6 dropped passes vs. 18 receptions is the worst drop rate out of all 92 WRs ranked in PFF signature statistics. Baldwin is also last among the 92 WRs with just 0.93 yards/pass route run (another PFF signature statistic).
Future Projection: Jonathan Baldwin is a high upside player but comes with plenty of downside as a raw and unproductive rookie. Dwayne Bowe could be leaving Kansas City in free agency, potentially opening the door for more playing time in 2012. I have Baldwin as an upside WR in the 30-35 range in dynasty formats.
Draft Grade: C+. Those drafting Baldwin knew he was extremely raw and that it would take time to be a factor. That is exactly how 2011 panned out. Baldwin remains a gifted athlete that will need to progress over the coming seasons.
1.09 – Randall Cobb
2011 Season: 85th in FF points, 100th in PPG. His 2.19 yards/pass route run is 2nd among Green Bay WRs to Jordy Nelson's gaudy 2.99 and 3rd among NFL rookies behind Doug Baldwin and A.J. Green. Cobb has the highest catch rate of all NFL WRs with 25+ receptions. Cobb also sported the highest missed tackle rate of all Green Bay WRs (6 missed tackles on just 25 catches).
Future Projection: The future is bright for Cobb with an elite supporting cast. As a Cobb dynasty owner, patience is key as playing time may come slowly for the WR. Cobb has made the absolute most with his limited opportunities on offense and is one of the best kick returners in the NFL. Randall Cobb is a high-upside WR ranked in the mid-30s in dynasty moving forward, higher for a rebuilding team.
Draft Grade: B+. As a late-1st round pick, Cobb did everything right in 2011. With patience, owners will be rewarded over time, as Cobb is a likely breakout fantasy player in the coming seasons.
1.10 – Torrey Smith
2011 Season: 27th in FF points, 35th in PPG in 2011. Smith's 18.0 YPC is behind only Jordy Nelson and Vincent Jackson of WRs with 40+ receptions. His 7 TDs is 16th among WRs – 13 of the 15 WRs with more TDs have more receptions (Decker, Burress the only exceptions). Smith broke onto the scene with his 3-TD game vs. St. Louis early in the season, but has been more consistent in the 2nd half of the season with 4 TDs in his last 8 games.
Future Projection: I had little doubt that Torrey Smith could get deep on NFL DBs, but what has been encouraging has been his development in the short and intermediate passing game. Smith has shown solid technique and the ability to come back to the football, which bodes well for him to become a complete WR in the future. Despite my concerns with Joe Flacco, I have Smith inside the top-25 of my dynasty WR ranks, especially if you are a rebuilding team.
Draft Grade: B+. Torrey Smith was a good 3rd or 4th WR as a rookie and will get every chance to be a long-term starter in Baltimore. The only concerns would be Joe Flacco's progression as a QB and the Ravens being a run-heavy offense. Great value as the 1.10 pick.
1.11 – Shane Vereen
2011 Season: 120th in FF points and 97th in PPG in 2011. Vereen has only 15 touches on the season, but his Elusive Rating is higher than all the starting RBs in the NFL. His 3 missed tackles on just 15 touches is a higher rate than any other New England RB.
Future Projection: Vereen is another rookie that will require patience as every Patriots RB has a role in the offense. Green-Ellis and Faulk may be gone in free agency, which would leave Ridley and Woodhead in 2012. In dynasty, I will bet on the talent over the long-term and Vereen is the talent in New England's RB group. I have Vereen ranked in the mid-20s among RBs, especially on a team with other startable RBs in the short-term.
Draft Grade: B-. Many expected Vereen to come in and take the starting job at some point in 2011. That did not happen. There is optimism moving forward with impending free agents and that talent will prevail in the long-term.
1.12 – Delone Carter
2011 Season: Carter ranks 70th in FF points and 82nd in PPG. He has the 29th highest Elusive rating among RBs with 25%+ of team attempts. Of 64 RBs with 25% of team snaps in 2011, Carter is one of only 7 RBs with a -2.0 or lower PFF rush rating. Carter has been outplayed consistently by Donald Brown and in the doghouse multiple times with fumbles. Carter has 3 fumbles on just 95 rushes, while Addai and Brown have 1 combined fumble on 236 rushes on the season.
Future Projection: Carter is limited in the passing game, which is a pet peeve of mine in PPR formats for RBs. With Donald Brown's improved play of late, he could be a long-term roadblock to significant playing time. With a healthy Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck under center in 2012, the Colts offense will be better than the 2011 version, but I question how many chances Carter will have to be an integral part. A 4th round draft pick doesn't get many chances in the NFL, so Delone Carter will need to show improvement through the off-season and into 2012 to move up to a relevant dynasty ranking.
Draft Grade: D. Owners drafting Carter cannot be pleased with 2011. Not only did Donald Brown step up in his 4th season, but also Carter did nothing to stake his claim as a future starter.
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